Will Dabo Swinney leave Clemson for the NFL?
Probably never. Swinney is one of the most-successful coaches in college football history. He's led Clemson to five straight College Football Playoff appearances, two national championships and the Tigers have a pipeline set up for success that should extend well into the 2020s. There is a no logical reason for Swinney to bolt from that set-up success for the instability of the NFL.
Swinney answered that NFL speculation as only he could on Sept. 8.
Dabo Swinney is asked about the rumblings that Jacksonville is in #TankforTrevor mode and that his name would make sense for the job: "Reaction was just, laughed at it. Had a little fun with Trevor. But man I'm not worried about the AFC or NFC, I don't even know what they are."
— Grace Raynor (@gmraynor) September 8, 2020
So probably never. Swinney made $9.3 million in 2019. Only four NFL coaches – Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll, Jon Gruden and Sean Payton – make more money. Swinney's name also is commonly linked to his alma mater Alabama, where he would be a leading candidate to take over for Nick Saban once he retires.
In this business, however, you learn to never say never. Three head coaches have won a national championship and a Super Bowl – an exclusive list that includes Jimmy Johnson, Barry Switzer and Carroll.
Would Swinney ever entertain that challenge? Here are the five teams that could try in 2020 and beyond.
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Houston Texans
The pitch: Deshaun Watson elevated Clemson from a playoff contender to a national championship team, and that success started with a tight relationship with Swinney. There is a level of trust that doesn't need to be cultured, and Swinney did an excellent job of surrounding Watson with the right skill-position fits at Clemson. You can't say the same about Bill O'Brien. Swinney was critical of those who passed on Watson in the 2017 NFL Draft. "They overthink things," Swinney told SN last year. "This kid has won since the ninth grade, since the eighth grade. He has won his entire life. He's won, and guys don't change their stripes. This guy is who he is, and he's gone right to the Texans and changed everything about them. He's done it. It's just a matter of time before he wins a Super Bowl or two, because that's going to happen."
SN take: The drawback here is franchise-wide instability. The Texans would be better off hiring Kansas City offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy instead. Look at what he's done with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City.
Atlanta Falcons
The pitch: The Falcons dropped to 0-5, marking the end of the Dan Quinn and Thomas Dimitroff era in Atlanta. The "Tank for Trevor" calls are beginning with the Falcons, and Falcons owner Dan Blank could make the boldest of moves by drafting Trevor Lawrence at No. 1 and pairing him with Swinney. The Falcons simply have not recovered from the Super Bowl LI debacle against New England. Why not bring in the coach who put the term "Clemsoning" to rest? The Panthers went with a college coach in Matt Rhule, and the early results in the NFC South are promising.
SN take: It is not going to be that easy to move on from Matt Ryan, whose contract runs through 2023. The Bobby Petrino experiment also was a disaster. Of the five Swinney scenarios, however, this is the best fit for the Clemson coach. Georgia fans might even like it. It gets Clemson out of the way.
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Jacksonville Jaguars
The pitch: The Jaguars were the first team to be rumored in the Swinney mix. Jacksonville has enjoyed just one winning season since 2008, and four different head coaches (Jack Del Rio, Mike Mularkey, Gus Bradley, Doug Marrone) have struggled to build a consistent winner. The Jaguars have the second-worst record in the NFL in that stretch. You telling us Swinney could do worse here?
SN take: This would require Jacksonville getting the No. 1 pick and getting Lawrence just to get into the Swinney conversation. Even then, that's an awful lot of losing to overcome, and Swinney already shot down the speculation.
New York Jets
The pitch: Adam Gase's second season in New York isn't going well, and New York is quickly falling into the No. 1 pick discussion. Should the team build around Sam Darnold or start over with Lawrence? That's going to be an organizational question for a franchise that could fall even farther behind New England, Buffalo and even Miami. The Bills and Dolphins have the right franchise quarterbacks in place. Can you say that about New York?
SN take: This comes with the Lawrence-Swinney disclaimer, but you know the immediate criticism. Swinney couldn't handle the New York media pressure. It would be odd-couple theater at its finest (from Little Ole Clemson to the Big Apple), but that doesn't have anything to do with on-field success. Besides, Swinney has just as much charisma and Rex Ryan. A better comparison would be another Jets coach who reached the playoffs three times in five seasons who delivered an all-time one-liner to the media.
Oh, and by the way, Herm Edwards is pretty good at the college game, too.
Dallas Cowboys
The pitch: The Mike McCarthy era is not off to the greatest start in Dallas. Dak Prescott's contract remains a topic of conversation. Would Jerry Jones – who won three Super Bowls with college coaches in Jimmy Johnson and Barry Switzer – go back to the future with Swinney on America's Team? This would be long way from Clemson too, but it's also a move that would make sense with a bunch of “ifs.” If Dallas has a losing season, Prescott walks and Jones – who turns 78 next week – wants to make the biggest splash possible by maneuvering for Lawrence – this could be a thing. Troy Aikman, the last Dallas quarterback to win a Super Bowl, was a No. 1 pick in the 1989 NFL Draft. He led those Super Bowl runs with college coaches, too.
SN take: Probably never. Even Chan Gailey lasted two years as a head coach in Dallas, and Jones is unlikely to move on from McCarthy after just one season. This is without question the most-fun Swinney scenario to talk about, however. Why not go after one of the best coaches?
