In what should be one of the highlights of Week 11, the Cowboys (6-3) travel to U.S. Bank Stadium to face the Vikings (8-1). Both squads are looking to gain on the No. 1 Eagles (8-1) — Dallas hopes to get closer to their divisional foes in the NFC East, while Minnesota aims to finish edge out Philly for the top seed in the NFC. We have all the betting odds, tips, trends, and storylines for this NFC clash, as well as our final score prediction.
The Vikings are coming off a massive win over the Bills in what many have called the "game of the year." Justin Jefferson padded his standing as the best wide receiver in football, catching anything Kirk Cousins tossed in his general direction and making awesomely clutch plays. All told, JJ recorded 10 catches for 193 yards and a TD. Dalvin Cook was also explosive, rushing 14 times for 119 yards and a TD. Tight end T.J. Hockenson also proved to be a great addition to an already-stout offense, hauling in seven-of-10 targets for 45 yards.
As for the Cowboys, they have been loving life with Dak Prescott healthy and, in an odd way, have enjoyed addition by subtraction with Ezekiel Elliott sidelined. Since Zeke sprained his knee on October 23, Tony Pollard has been electric as the bell cow back. The fourth-year man has racked up 275 scrimmage yards and four TDs over the past two weeks, while Dallas has scored a combined 77 points. Last week's 28 was not enough to beat four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers, though, as the Pack bested the 'Boys by a field goal.
The Vikings already clinched the win of the season. Can they lock down two big ones in a row? Let's get to the betting odds, then analyze the key stats, trends, and storylines, and ultimately make our prediction for this pivotal NFC showdown.
WEEK 11 NFL PICKS: Against the Spread | Straight up
Cowboys at Vikings odds for NFL Week 11
Betting odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
- Spread: Cowboys -1.5 (-107) | Vikings +1.5 (-113)
- Over/Under: O 48.5 (-110) | U 48.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Cowboys -124 | Vikings +103
Cowboys vs. Vikings all-time series
These squads have faced off 33 times, with the Cowboys leading the all-time series 18-15. Dallas has also won four of its past five meetings with the Vikings dating back to 2013 in an epic Christian Ponder vs. Tony Romo duel that ended with the 'Boys winning 27-23. From 1998 to 2010, Minnesota went 7-1 against the Cowboys, with Randall Cunningham, Daunte Culpepper, Tarvaris Jackson, and Brett Favre beating up the likes of Troy Aikman, Vinny Testaverde, and Tony Romo.
MORE WEEK 11 NFL: Odds, spreads
Cowboys at Vikings: Three trends to know
— The Cowboys are 6-3 against the spread this season but 0-1 as an away favorite.
— Since Prescott returned from his thumb injury, Dallas has gone 2-1 ATS. It missed the +3.5 cover in Green Bay by a half-point last weekend, losing 31-28.
— While Minnesota is 9-1 straight up over its past 10 games, it has gone just 5-4-1 ATS in that span.
Cowboys at Vikings: Three things to watch for
Will Zeke return? And does it even matter to Tony Pollard?
Pollard has been absolutely electric since he started operating as the Cowboys' workhorse back. With Minnesota getting gashed by the run over the past couple of games, Mike McCarthy and company could view Pollard, Elliott, and even Prescott sneaks as the keys to victory this week. Elliott claimed he was at full strength last week and has been practicing, so if he returns, it's fair to wonder what Pollard's role will look like once the veteran retakes the field.
We tend to think we'll continue to see plenty of Pollard between the 20s. Elliott will still get a lot of short-yardage and goal-line snaps. That's enough usage for both RBs to make some noise and open up the field for Prescott and the passing game.
Which defense will step up?
Micah Parsons, the 2021 Defensive Rookie of the Year, has transformed the Cowboys defense from good to elite in just a couple of years. Dallas ranks in the top five of the NFL in a multitude of categories: scoring defense, passing yards allowed, net yards per passing attempt, and rushing TDs. The 'Boys front-seven has the most sacks in the league, and their secondary has surrendered 166.5 passing yards per game over its past four games. Now, it will face one of its biggest tests of the season with Justin Jefferson and company.
Minnesota, meanwhile, has a sneaky good defense despite ranking 14th in points surrendered and 29th in yards allowed. The Vikings have the second-most takeaways, the ninth-best third-down defense, and the 10th-most sacks in the NFL. Like Dallas, Minnesota has forced eight turnovers in its past three games. However, also like Dallas, the Vikes have struggled to slow down elite offenses. In its squeaker win in Buffalo last week, Minnesota gave up 486 total yards for the second time this season. It has allowed 111-plus rushing yards six times and 277-plus passing yards five times.
Can either of these QBs become clutch winners?
Kirk Cousins gets credit for the "W" last weekend in Buffalo, but he might have been the third-most important member of this offense. His desperate downfield prayers were continually answered by the maestro that is Jefferson, and the Vikes' overtime drive was commanded largely by Dalvin Cook, who racked up 34 of his 119 yards in OT.
Maybe Cousins will turn the corner from good to great now that he recorded a 357-yard game against an elite defense — pounding the ball to Jefferson is like activating a personal cheat code, but we need to see a game from him involving two of three things: 300 passing yards, three TDs, and zero interceptions. That hasn't happened yet this season, and his pocket protection has been a major reason why. He's been sacked 12 times over the past four games and hurried or knocked down dozens more.
Prescott has seemingly improved in each of his three games since coming back from his thumb injury, but his turnover numbers rise as his yardage and touchdowns do. In Week 7 versus Detroit, he put up 207 passing yards, one TD, and no picks. In Week 8 versus Chicago, he recorded 250 passing yards, two TDs, and one INT. In Week 10 after the bye, he logged 265 yards, three TDs, and two picks in the loss to Green Bay. Can either of these guys come through against opponents without turning the ball over?
Cowboys at Vikings: Stat that matters
137. That's the magic number Minnesota holds rushing offenses to when it finds the most resounding success. Across the five games in which opponents netted fewer than 137 rushing yards, the Vikings have outscored opponents 166-96. Over the four games in which opponents gained 137 or more rushing yards, the Vikings have been outscored 95-88.
In its only loss back in Week 2, Minnesota allowed Jalen Hurts and the Eagles to amass 163 ground yards. In its past two three-point wins — against the Commanders and Bills — the Vikings allowed 137 rushing yards and 175 yards, respectively. Dallas has averaged 166 rushing yards over its past three games (seventh most in the NFL) and 158 rushing yards per away game (fifth most). It will be a long day for the Vikes if they can't stop the Cowboys on the run.
Cowboys at Vikings: Prediction
While BetQL reports that 90 percent of sharp money and 75 percent of tickets are currently on the Vikings' moneyline, we're leaning toward Dallas in this one. The Vikings barely squeaked by a banged-up Bills squad that made multiple costly mistakes and allowed Jefferson to come down with a handful of low-percentage heaves. Don't expect the Cowboys' defense, which has the best pass rush and one of the better, healthier secondaries in the NFL, to be as forgiving as Buffalo's. The Cowboys also enjoy a run game that's vastly superior to that of the Bills. Jefferson will once again be the best and most dominating offensive player on the field. We give mad props to the 8-1 Vikings, but Dallas has a better overall team top-to-bottom, especially now that it has trimmed down its injury report.
PREDICTION: Cowboys 30, Vikings 27. Another doozie of a game sees the Cowboys win and cover (-1.5), while the total cruises to the OVER (48.5).
