What was viewed as one of the marquee games on the Week 2 NFL slate less than a day ago is now the highest spread on BetMGM's betting board. Following Aaron Rodgers' devastating Achilles' injury, the Jets' Super Bowl aspirations are all but out the window, and so, too, are their chances of taking down the Cowboys in Week 2.
Despite clawing back from a 10-point second-half deficit to defeat the Bills in Week 1, a deep playoff run seems like a pipe dream for the Jets. The question now becomes whether general manager Joe Douglas will acquire a new QB to keep the team afloat. Ultimately, it feels like New York will get a veteran signal-caller to run Nathaniel Hackett's offense, but for the short term, it's Zach Wilson's show. While Wilson was competent enough to help the Rodgers-less Jets defeat the Bills in Week 1, going into Jerry World and competing with the Cowboys is a much different task.
Fresh off a dominant, all-around effort in a 40-0 drubbing of the Giants, the Cowboys are in the driver's seat to start 2-0. However, unlike last week, Dallas faces a significantly more sound stop unit that could make life challenging for Dak Prescott and company. Will Dallas cover this big number, or will the Wilson-led Jets get to 2-0 ATS?
For those looking to bet on Sunday's Cowboys-Jets contest, we'll give you all the information you need before placing a wager, including the updated odds from BetMGM, and our prediction for this Week 2 matchup.
Cowboys vs. Jets odds, spread, over/under
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- Spread: Cowboys -9.5 (-110); Jets +9.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 39.5 (-110); UNDER 39.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Cowboys -450; Jets +350
Before the Jets-Bills Week 1 matchup, BetMGM priced New York as three-point road underdogs for its Week 2 road tilt in Dallas. Additionally, the total was set at 45.5 points, but now that Rodgers won't be under center, the Jets' spread has moved up 6.5 points up +9.5 and the total's dropped 5.5 points to 39.5.
Regarding each team's moneyline, the Cowboys went from -175 to -450, with the Jets moving from +145 to +350. Regarding each team's implied win probability relative to their moneyline, the Cowboys went from 63.64 percent to 81.82 percent, while the Jets went from 40.82 percent to 22.22 percent.
Should you bet the Cowboys against the spread?
Not to take away what the Jets did on Monday night (see what we did there?), but Josh Allen's poor decision-making (7.8 percent turnover-worthy play rate) was the deciding factor in New York's ability to grind out a 22-16 overtime victory. Of course, a good deal of his subpar play in the turnover department resulted from the Jets' elite defense, but Allen made Monday night's game significantly harder on himself than it needed to be.
Allen tried to be too fine and look for chunk plays instead of taking what the Jets defense gave him by moving the sticks. Instead, the Bills ended the night -3 in turnovers, and when you give a team three additional possessions, they usually take advantage, even with a backup QB running the offense.
Credit to Nathaniel Hackett for simplifying the offense once Rodgers went down, relying on their RB tandem of Breece Hall (10 carries, 127 yards) and Dalvin Cook (13 carries, 33 yards) to make life easier for Wilson. Hackett also ensured Wilson didn't have to beat the Bills vertically, totaling the third-lowest average intended air yards among QBs (4.3 yards).
While their in-game adjustments panned out, can the Jets manufacture enough scoring drives against a Cowboys defense that leads the league in EPA/play (-0.427)? Yes, Dak Prescott's been plagued by turnovers in the past, but unless the Jets end Sunday's contest +2 or better in the turnover department, we don't expect the Jets to stay within the current spread. There's a chance this spread goes through the key number of 10 as the week progresses, so if you want to bet on the Cowboys, the sooner you get your spread bet in, the better.
Our pick: Cowboys -9.5 (-110)
Final score prediction: Cowboys 24, Jets 14
Should you bet the Cowboys vs. Jets over or under?
Although the betting value is all but gone on this total after the 5.5-point adjustment, we'd still lean toward the UNDER. Yes, the Jets scored 22 points in Week 1, but Josh Allen's turnovers gave the Jets prime starting field position, one even a Zach Wilson-led offense could take advantage of. Dallas' offense wasn't tested in their opener and now faces a Jets defense that posted the league's highest coverage grade per PFF (85.7).
Our pick: UNDER 39.5 (-110), but at this point, we'd pass on the total.
Best Cowboys vs. Jets prop bet via SuperDraft
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott UNDER 236.5 passing yards
Although we're backing the Cowboys to notch a double-digit victory, we don't think Prescott goes OVER his passing yards prop of 236.5 yards. As we mentioned, the Jets' coverage unit owns PFF's top coverage grade, potentially resulting in Prescott underwhelming as a passer.
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The Jets' run defense isn't nearly as stout as their pass coverage, which could lead to increased emphasis on the ground game, hindering his chances of going OVER this number.
