The penultimate (and potentially best) matchup of the 2023 International Series pits the 6-2 Chiefs (-2.5) against the 6-2 Dolphins in Frankfurt, Germany, for a Week 9 showdown (9:30 a.m. ET, NFLN).
The Chiefs look to rebound from an uncharacteristic 24-9 road loss against the Broncos, a game in which Patrick Mahomes suffered his first loss against his divisional rivals in 13 tries. In the loss, Kansas City was held out of the end zone against a Broncos defense ranked in the bottom five in both total defense and scoring defense.
Like Kansas City's Week 1 loss to Detroit, untimely dropped passes ultimately doomed the Chiefs. Additionally, a muffed punt from Mecole Hardman in the fourth quarter crushed the Chiefs' chances of staging a late-game comeback.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins got back in the win column in Week 8, securing a 31-17 home win to notch a regular season sweep over the Patriots. Despite turning the ball over twice in their own territory, Tua Tagovailoa and company still operated at an efficient clip, averaging 5.3 yards per play while scoring 30-plus points for the fifth time this season.
Can the Dolphins notch their win over a team with a winning record this season, or will the Chiefs pull out a victory in Germany? Below, we'll give you all the information you need before placing a wager on Chiefs-Dolphins, including the updated odds from Caesars Sportsbook and our predictions for this Week 9 matchup.
Chiefs vs. Dolphins odds, spread, over/under
All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Spread: Chiefs -2.5 (-110) | Dolphins +2.5 (-110)
Total: OVER 50.5 (-110) | UNDER 50.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Chiefs -140 | Dolphins +118
Kansas City scored nine points, produced 275 yards of total offense, and lost by double digits despite closing as touchdown favorites last week, but the betting market still believes the Chiefs are a better team on a neutral field. Kansas City will likely close as favorites for the ninth time this season, while the Dolphins are priced as underdogs for the third time all year.
The Dolphins have gone 1-2 ATS as an underdog this season, with their lone cover coming in its 36-34 Week 1 road win against the Chargers. The last time two times the Dolphins closed as underdogs (+3 at the Bills in Week 4 and +3 at the Eagles in Week 7), Miami failed to cover in both games, losing by an average of 16 points.
Sunday's total of 50.5 points is the highest over/under of any International Series game this season, and for good reason. The betting market doesn't expect the Chiefs' Week 8 offensive showing to carry over into Sunday, especially with Patrick Mahomes having ample time to recover from last week's illness.
The Dolphins' offense has rarely skipped a beat this season and should be able to stress the Chiefs' defense. Expect a back-and-forth, high-scoring matchup to start your Sunday.
Should you bet the Chiefs against the spread?
Although Kansas City did not look like the reigning Super Bowl champs in Week 8, we would bet the Chiefs at -2.5 (-110). In a parity-filled league like the NFL, the margin for error between wins and losses is minuscule. While it's hard to point to one play being the sole reason a team loses a game, Mecole Hardman's muffed punt was a massive momentum-swinging play.
Yes, the Chiefs did not even play remotely close to their best football in Week 8, but before Hardman's fumble, they were set to get the ball back down just five points with over 11 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. In other words, if Kansas City can clean up its self-inflicted wounds, it's in a prime position to bounce back.
The Dolphins are clearly no slouch, but their inability to compete against some of the league's elites this season is telling. They've taken care of business and beaten up on teams they're supposed to, evident in their +109 point differential in wins, but until they can prove it against teams of the Chiefs' caliber, we'll continue to fade them as underdogs.
Right now, we trust Steve Spagnuolo's defense to get ample stops necessary to keep the Dolphins offense in check. Entering Week 9, the Chiefs defense ranks fourth in success rate (40 percent), a strong measure of a team's down-to-down consistency in keeping offenses off-schedule.
Conversely, the Dolphins' defense ranks 27th in success rate (46.2%), as offenses have been able to stay on schedule at a higher clip.
Given Kansas City's ability to turn its red-zone trips into touchdowns more times than not and maintain a neutral or even positive turnover margin, the Chiefs are in a position to churn out a three-plus-point win.
Our Pick: Chiefs -2.5 (-110)
Should you bet the Chiefs vs. Dolphins OVER?
As mentioned above, the current total of 50.5 points implies Sunday's game will be a high-scoring one, but we still believe there's some wiggle room when it comes to betting the OVER 50.5 (-110). The ability of both offenses to generate explosive plays could result in some short drives, boosting OVER bettors' chances of cashing their tickets.
In the three games the Dolphins closed as underdogs in this season, an average of 62 points were scored. Miami's defense hasn't been able to consistently stop the better offenses, but its offense can still keep it within striking distance.
Our Pick: OVER 50.5 (-110)
Final score prediction: Chiefs 31, Dolphins 28
