The 2022 NFL season has already featured countless gems, but Week 4's Sunday Night Football clash between the Buccaneers and Chiefs could be the best of them all. In a rematch of Super Bowl LV, QB GOAT Tom Brady and generational talent Patrick Mahomes will each try to help their team seize a third win in the first four weeks. It should be an epic primetime battle, and we've got a Same Game Parlay on Caesars Sportsbook that should make it even more exciting.
This game had a contingency plan due to Hurricane Ian — it would have been relocated to Minneapolis if damage and cleanup efforts deemed Raymond James Stadium an unfit venue for Sunday night. But the Bucs confirmed Thursday that Tampa will host the pivotal early-season affair. Still, a handful of sportsbooks (including Caesars) currently list the game as a "pick'em," with no side clearly favored and each moneyline at -110. The over/under of 45.5 is also -110 on both sides.
In a game oddsmakers believe to be a coin-flip, we have all the more reason to opt for a Same Game Parlay. Player and game props, especially in this case, can be much safer and more lucrative wagering options. And while SGPs have risen in popularity, they remain far less popular among mainstream bettors than standard spread, moneyline, and over/under betting. That means less juice or vig, and more potential money in our pockets.
If you're not familiar with Same Game Parlays, jump in — the water's fine! SGPs allow bettors to string together a bunch of player, team, and game props into one parlay bet, increasing interest in the game and jacking up the potential payouts from the game. Prop bets can be much easier for savvy bettors to wager on, as statistical trends tend to be more consistent than teams’ week-to-week scoring output and cover-the-spread data.
MORE: Buccaneers-Chiefs will be played at Raymond James Stadium as originally planned
Each weekend, we will put together a list of our favorite prop bets for the upcoming Sunday Night Game. We’ll then explain our reasoning behind each pick, and list a variety of other prop bets we also like. Finally, we’ll enter the handful of props that made the cut into a parlay and determine what kind of odds and potential payout we will see if we pull the trigger on the SGP.
WEEK 4 NFL PICKS: Against the Spread | Moneyline Picks | Best Bets
This week, you’ll notice the foundation of our parlay has been laid with three props in the -115 to -135 range. You’ll usually want your same-game parlays to consist of mostly props with strong probabilities of hitting. Since every leg of the parlay needs a green checkmark in order for us to cash, we can’t just jack up the potential payout with all props listed at plus-odds.
Let’s dive into our Week 4 Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay, and make some money on what should be an unforgettable primetime game!
All Same Game Parlay props are from Caesars Sportsbook.
Buccaneers vs. Chiefs: Best Same Game Parlay picks & player prop bets for Sunday Night Football
| Player/Team | Prop | Odds |
| Patrick Mahomes | OVER 266.5 passing yards | -115 |
| Travis Kelce | Anytime touchdown scorer | +102 |
| Tom Brady | OVER 0.5 interceptions | +104 |
| Mike Evans | OVER 68.5 receiving yards | -135 |
| Patrick Mahomes | UNDER 15.5 rushing yards | -127 |
Total SGP Odds (5 legs): +2400 | Bet: $50 | Winning Payout: $1,200
Patrick Mahomes OVER 266.5 passing yards (-115)
Perhaps the most clutch of the 'next generation' of 20-something QBs, Mahomes always gets up in big games. His career per-game stats against most of the powerhouses of the league are downright video game-like. And while the Bucs got the best of Mahomes and the Chiefs in Super Bowl LV, something tells us he will have fire in his eyes for the rematch. Besides, he still threw for OVER 266.5 passing yards in that Super Bowl, finishing with 270 on the dot. It was his two interceptions that cost Kansas City gravely, combined with Brady, Gronk, and the Bucs RBs being too much for the Chiefs D to handle.
Look at Mahomes' stats the last time Kansas City met Tampa Bay in the regular season:
| Passing Yards | TDs | INTs | QBR | Comp % |
| 462 | 3 | 0 | 124.7 | 75.5 |
Yeah, that's pretty studly. We like Tampa Bay's defense a lot, but we don't like the Bucs to hold Mahomes under 267 passing yards in the marquee game of the early season. He's averaging over 285 yards per contest this year, and has never finished a season with an average under 284 per. He's also 15-7 in night games with an average of 293.7 air yards. Lock this in.
WEEK 4 NFL PICKS ADVICE: Pick 'em pools | Survivor pools
Travis Kelce anytime TD scorer (+102)
Another guy with ice in his veins, Kelce is the undisputed king of the Chiefs' pass-catchers now that Tyreek Hill took his talents to South Beach. He has scored touchdowns in two of Kansas City's first three games this season, and came mere yards away from a third before Chargers safety Derwin James body-slammed him outside the end zone in Week 2. Kelce has 45 touchdowns since 2017, 18 of which have come in primetime contests. He has caught TDs against all but six teams in the NFL, and one of those teams to keep him away from paydirt has been the Bucs. We absolutely love the chances Kelce scratches them off his hit list this weekend, and we are over the moon that we're getting plus-odds on KC's best playmaker to score in what should be a shootout.
Tom Brady OVER 0.5 interceptions (+104)
I probably sound like a Brady hater with these picks, but I'm just going with trends along with visual evidence so far this season. Brady has a lifetime interception rate of 1.8 percent, but he's currently at just one percent, which would easily rank as the third-lowest of his 20-year career if maintained throughout the entirety of the '22 campaign. Spoiler alert: he won't maintain a one-percent INT rate across the whole season. Brady has been uber conservative the first three weeks, with Chris Godwin hurt (hamstring), Rob Gronkowski retired, Antonio Brown rapping somewhere, and Mike Evans suspended last week. Plus, Tampa has drawn some extremely tough defenses through three weeks: the Cowboys, Saints, and Packers. As such, the Bucs have limited their passing attempts and instead relied heavily on Leonard Fournette and the running game as well as their defense. Brady has just barely attempted 100 passes this season, averaging out to 34.3 per game. For context, he led the league in attempts last season, throwing over 42 attempts per game. Tampa won't be able to win this game throwing one touchdown like it has in its first three games — Brady will need to win with his arm, which means much more potential for picks with a banged-up offensive line and rusty receiving corps. This may be the most volatile prop of our SGP, but it feels worth it.
Mike Evans OVER 68.5 receiving yards (-135)
Of course, if Brady and the passing game stay active on Sunday, Evans will be the primary beneficiary. The tall veteran receiver easily ranks as TB12's No. 1 target, and he always seems to create separation and win 50/50 balls. A dependable route-runner with strong hands and great physicality, Evans is a perfect receiver for the aging GOAT. He's a go-to guy, and he could see double-digit targets for the first time this season. In two career regular-season games against the Chiefs, Evans has nine catches on 22 targets for 155 yards and two TDs. Safety Tyrann 'Honey Badger' Mathieu, now a Saint, no longer roams the open field to assist Kansas City's corners. That's a big loss, and a major reason why Evans should eat on Sunday night.
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 15.5 rushing yards (-127)
Here's another prop that seems like easy money. Tampa Bay's front-seven has been awesome this season, led by linebackers Devin White, Shaquil Barrett, and Lavonte David. Mahomes, who has rushed just nine times for 30 yards this season, will want no part of scrambling into the open field with these tackle assassins on the loose. Against the Cardinals and Chargers, the QB ran five times for four total yards. Against Indy in Week 4, Mahomes managed 26 yards on four rushes but KC ultimately lost. The path to Chiefs wins is through Mahomes' arm, not legs, and after seeing Tua Tagovailoa laid out on Thursday Night Football, I would be shocked if the 2018 MVP risked his health with any QB sneaks against this elite defense.
Other SNF player props we like: Kelce OVER 6.5 receptions (+106); Tom Brady OVER 37.5 pass attempts (-106); Evans anytime TD scorer (+108); Nick Bolton OVER 8.5 tackles + assists (-113); Chris Godwin longest reception OVER 17.5 yards (-111)
