The Buccaneers went 32-18 in three regular seasons with Tom Brady as their starting quarterback, with three playoff appearances, two division titles and a Super Bowl championship to show for it. They will be hard-pressed to match that .640 overall winning percentage in the first season without him.
Tampa Bay, with Baker Mayfield expected to serve as the post-Brady bridge QB ahead of Kyle Trask, is expected to drop off again after a sub-.500 8-9 campaign that still won the NFC South last season.
Just how much further will they slide? Here is a complete breakdown of the Buccaneers' 2023 schedule, including dates, start times and analysis for all 17 games.
MORE: Watch NFL games live on Fubo (free trial)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers schedule 2023
| Week | Date | Opponent | Kickoff time | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sept. 10 | at Vikings | 1 p.m. ET | CBS |
| 2 | Sept. 17 | vs. Bears | 1 p.m. ET | Fox |
| 3 | Sept. 24 | vs. Eagles | 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| 4 | Oct. 1 | at Saints | 1 p.m. ET | CBS |
| 5 | Oct. 8 | BYE | ||
| 6 | Oct. 15 | vs. Lions | 4:25 p.m. ET | Fox |
| 7 | Oct. 22 | vs. Falcons | 1 p.m. ET | Fox |
| 8 | Oct. 26 | at Bills | 8:15 p.m. ET | Amazon Prime |
| 9 | Nov. 5 | at Texans | 1 p.m. ET | CBS |
| 10 | Nov. 12 | vs. Titans | 1 p.m. ET | CBS |
| 11 | Nov. 19 | at 49ers | 4:05 p.m. ET | Fox |
| 12 | Nov. 26 | at Colts | 1 p.m. ET | CBS |
| 13 | Dec. 3 | vs. Panthers | 4:05 p.m. ET | CBS |
| 14 | Dec. 10 | at Falcons | 1 p.m. ET | CBS |
| 15 | Dec. 17 | at Packers | 1 p.m. ET | Fox |
| 16 | Dec. 24 | vs. Jaguars | 4:05 p.m. ET | CBS |
| 17 | Dec. 31 | vs. Saints | 1 p.m. ET | Fox |
| 18 | Jan. 7* | at Panthers | TBD | TBD |
The Buccaneers aren't the only team in the NFC South breaking in a new quarterback. In six games, they will hope to take some advantage of the fact the Saints (Derek Carr), Falcons (Desmond Ridder) and Panthers (Bryce Young) are all doing the same thing.
Outside of the division, the Bucs get three games vs. the weak AFC South plus four with the rather manageable NFC North.
Buccaneers strength of schedule
The Buccaneers' 2023 opponents went a combined 138-148-2 (.483). That traditional interpretation of schedule strength gives them the 11th-easiest schedule. In terms of opponents' projected 2023 win totals, per Sharp Football Analysis, the Bucs come in with the 13th-easiest schedule.
Toughest tests: The Buccaneers, as a fading first-place team, unfortunately need to face the Bills, 49ers and Vikings all on the road and also need to go to Green Bay. The Eagles, Lions and Jaguars also significantly raise the degree of difficulty in Tampa.
Biggest breaks: Getting the Falcons and Panthers twice each helps. They also need to take the AFC South tossups vs. the Colts, Texans and Titans.
MORE: All 32 draft classes ranked from best (Steelers) to worst (Jets)
Bottom line: The Buccaneers have a projected win total of 6.5, which notes only a 1.5-game drop from having Mayfield at QB instead of Brady. The 2022 record suggests they had a lot more fundamental issues under Todd Bowles unrelated to the QB. The schedule has more challenges than breaks to the point road wins will be scarce and every home win will be hard-earned.
Record prediction: 5-12
