When the Chiefs (4-1) host the Broncos(1-4) to open Week 6 on "Thursday Night Football" (8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video), they will look to avoid a trap game against a sputtering AFC West opponent. Denver has dropped 15 consecutive games to Kansas City, with Patrick Mahomes going 11-0 in his starts against the division rival.
The Chiefs don't always come through as heavy favorites, but the Broncos are getting killed most weeks minus their lone victory over the Bears. The Chiefs' only loss came in Week 1 to the Lions at home, also on a Thursday night.
The Chiefs have a couple of injury concerns, but tight end Travis Kelce (ankle) is expected to lay through his sprain, and edge rusher George Karlaftis (hamstring) also should go.
The Broncos have some defensive injuries, notably to safety Justin Simmons (hip), who should play. Offensively, running back Javonte Williams (hip) will return after missing Week 5, and tight end Greg Dulcich (hamstring) might be available for the first time since Week 1.
With all that in mind, here's a betting preview, breakdown, and prediction for the latest, potentially lopsided edition of TNF:
Broncos vs. Chiefs odds, spread, over/under
(All odds courtesy of BetMGM)
Spread: Broncos+10.5 (-110) | Chiefs-10.5 (-110)
Over/Under: OVER 47.5 (-110) | UNDER 47.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Broncos +425 | Chiefs -600
The Chiefs have been hovering around 11 points all week after they won at Minnesota and Denver lost again at home to the Jets. The total was a little higher earlier, but perhaps some concern over Kelce's health lowered it a bit.
MORE THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
DK lineup | FD lineup | Best props | Start-sit | Kelce update
Should you bet the Chiefs against the spread?
The Chiefs have gotten some interesting covers, including last week when a called-back pass interference penalty bailed them out of seeing a tighter (or even tied) game against the Vikings. After losing to the Lions, they've covered in three of the past four games. The Broncos haven't passed their number all season, with four ATS losses and a push.
Kansas City will make sure it doesn't look past Denver on a short week and the domination in the Mahomes era continues. Nothing has to give here for an offense that can do anything and a defense that can't stop anything.
Our Pick: Chiefs -10.5 (-110)
Should you bet the Broncos-Chiefs OVER?
The Chiefs might take care of this number by themselves, but really, the only thing stopping them is settling for too many field goals over red-zone TDs. The Broncos give up big runs and big passes, and Mahomes hasn't had a monster game yet. The Broncos can get enough garbage from Russell Wilson to put it OVER the total.
Our Pick: OVER 47.5 (-110)
Final score prediction: Chiefs 38, Broncos 14
Best Broncos-Chiefs prop bet on SuperDraft
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Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs — OVER 74.5 rushing yards
The Broncos are by far the worst run defense in the NFL this season, and one of the worst all time. They're giving up more than 187 yards per game on average, appropriate because they've been murdered on the ground. They give it up to power rushers; they give it up to speed backs; and they give up long runs.
MORE: Full SuperDraft parlay picks for Broncos-Chiefs
Pacheco can do all of that, and Andy Reid will be well aware his team can dominate with balance. Pacheco, who's averaging 65 yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry, might get this on one long run to the house. This is just asking him to get 40 percent of what the Broncos usually give up.
