When the Bills (5-4) host the Broncos (3-5) to close Week 10 of the 2023 NFL season on "Monday Night Football" (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN), they will be looking for a get-well game at home. Buffalo is coming off a tough Week 9 road loss at Cincinnati, while Denver will come in rested after a Week 9 bye.
The Bills and Broncos started the week out of the AFC playoff picture. The Bills are hoping to jump back into a stronger wild-card position. The Broncos are trying to stay improved after going 3-2 after an 0-3 start.
Here's looking at whether Buffalo will handle Denver as a strong favorite, breaking down the best betting path for MNF's latest AFC interdivision matchup:
Broncos vs. Bills odds, spread, over/under
(All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
Spread: Broncos +7.5 (-110) | Bills -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under: OVER 47 (-110) | UNDER 47 (-110)
Moneyline: Broncos +285 | Bills -365
The Broncos have been TD-plus underdogs for much of the week, as Buffalo tends to handle weaker teams at home. The losses so far have come against the Jaguars, Bengals, Patriots, and Jets, all on the road. The Broncos' wins vs. the Packers and Chiefs were both at home, so they'll have to buck the trends to pull off an upset on the road.
Should you bet the Bills against the spread vs. the Broncos?
The Bills have let down in multiple games. They were upset on the road twice by divisional foes, and they let the Buccaneers come back through the back door in Week 8. However, the Bills also have dominated in several games. The routs against the Raiders, Commanders, and Dolphins after the Week 1 loss are examples of the team's high ceiling.
The Broncos have their hands full with their lingering defensive issues, and they also are positioned to see the better version of the injury-hampered Bills defense. Playing at home at night should pump up Buffalo more than it did against the Giants or Buccaneers.
Our Pick: Bills -7.5 (-110)
Should you bet the Broncos-Bills OVER?
The Bills will take care of business with Josh Allen passing and running them to big offense, and they should get multiple tack-on field goals from Tyler Bass. There's enough to exploit in the Broncos' limited pass rush and secondary to get that done.
So, it comes down to Russell Wilson moving the ball well for the Broncos while trailing. Their running game with Javonte Williams has been more effective of late, and Wilson's weapons get a break with cornerback Tre'Davious White and linebacker Matt Milano injured and not available in coverage. The Broncos will get some points, but not nearly enough to close the gap on the scoreboard.
Our Pick: OVER 47 (-110)
Final score prediction: Bills 30, Broncos 20
