The Houston Texans are short favorites per the NFL betting odds against the Buffalo Bills this week, and they will attempt to make it out of the Wild Card Round for just the fourth time in their short history. Houston has never had a first-round bye, but the Texans are no strangers to Wild Card Weekend, playing in the first round of the playoffs for the sixth time this decade on Saturday. Meanwhile, Buffalo is hoping to end one of the NFL’s longest postseason victory droughts, as it’s been 25 years since the Bills last won a playoff game. There are other betting options for this game besides simply picking a winner or betting a total though, so let’s look at some other plays.
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Deshaun Watson over/under 250.5 passing yards
Watson has thrown for 250 yards or more eight times this season, and he will be facing one of the best defenses in the league in Buffalo. The Bills have one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL in Tre’Davious White, and linebacker Terrell Edmunds is already one of the league’s best despite being 22 years old.
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Houston’s star quarterback has not faced many top defenses this year, but he did have an excellent outing in leading the Texans past the New England Patriots in early December. However, he only threw for 234 yards in that game, and he only managed to throw for 169 yards against the other top defense he faced in Baltimore. The Texans’ receiving corps is banged up too with Kenny Stills and Will Fuller nursing injuries ahead of Saturday’s game, so the under is the play here.
Josh Allen over/under 216.5 passing yards
Allen is the least accurate quarterback in the playoffs. He threw for over 3,000 yards, but he completed just 58.8 percent of his passes on the year. The second-year quarterback from Wyoming has a cannon for an arm, yet his longest completion all season was 53 yards, and that was on a busted coverage against New England two weeks ago.
John Brown and Cole Beasley were both fine offseason acquisitions, but those are the only two players that Allen targets with any regularity. The next leading receiver on the team is tight end Dawson Knox with 388 yards and two touchdowns, so Houston knows what to expect from Allen. Defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel has essentially had two weeks to prepare for this offense, so the under is the better play.
MORE: Full betting preview for Bills vs. Texans
Carlos Hyde over/under 64.5 rushing yards
This was the first year that Hyde ran for over 1,000 yards in a season, and Houston loves to lean on the bruising running back. However, his production tailed off at the end of the season, and he ran for under 30 yards in four of the Texans’ last five games. Buffalo is allowing 4.2 YPC this year despite having an excellent defense, so Hyde has the potential to surpass this total, but it’s unlikely given his recent form and the play of Houston’s offensive line down the stretch.
Josh Allen over/under 33.5 rushing yards
The over here is one of the best props on the board. Allen is averaging 4.7 YPC, and he will be unleashed in the playoffs. He is the second-best running quarterback in the postseason, and Houston has not had much success stopping the run. The Texans are conceding 4.8 YPC this year, and it’s unlikely that J.J. Watt will do much to slow down this ground game. He is returning from a torn pectoral muscle earlier than expected, so he will be at much less than 100 percent.
Don’t be surprised if Allen totes the ball more than Devin Singletary or Frank Gore. He has surprising speed for a quarterback his size, and he can bowl over smaller defenders.
Dawson Knox Over/Under 24.5 Receiving Yards
Buffalo doesn’t prioritize getting the ball to its tight ends like other teams in the league, but Sean McDermott will likely ask Allen to target Knox four or five times on Saturday afternoon. Houston has allowed tight ends to catch 70 passes for 829 yards and six touchdowns this season, and Knox can use his frame to exploit mismatches in the back seven.