The Bills look to snap their two-game losing skid against the 3-6 Cleveland Browns Sunday afternoon inside cozy Ford Field (1 p.m. ET, CBS). Buffalo enters Week 11 off a heart-crushing 33-30 overtime defeat against the Vikings, a game in which the Bills held a 27-10 late third-quarter lead.
The biggest storyline surrounding the game is the move from Buffalo to a neutral field in Detroit due to an ongoing weather emergency in the Buffalo area. Additionally, Buffalo has fallen out of first place in the AFC East standings with a two-game losing skid and needs to get right as we enter the latter portion of the regular season schedule.
Meanwhile, Cleveland's in the middle of yet another forgetful season, sitting toward the bottom of the AFC North standings through nine games. Last week, the Browns couldn't slow down Miami's high-octane offense, allowing 39 points on 491 total yards in a 39-17 defeat.
WEEK 11 NFL PICKS: Against the Spread | Straight up
For those looking for a play, we'll give you all the information you need before placing a wager on Bills-Browns, including the updated odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, tips, and our prediction for this Week 11 divisional clash.
Bills vs. Browns odds for NFL Week 11
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
- Spread: Bills -7.5 (-115); Browns +7.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 49.5
- Moneyline: Bills -360; Browns +290
Buffalo was listed as 6.5-point favorites on the look-ahead line with some uncertainty surrounding Josh Allen's (elbow) status but the Bills have since been bet up to 7.5-point home chalk. With the game being moved to Ford Field, the current total ballooned back up 49.5 points after the over/under was at 42.5 when the game was trending toward being held in adverse conditions in Buffalo.
MORE WEEK 11 NFL: Odds, spreads
Do bets void if the game is moved or postponed?
With NFL moving the game to another venue, it can result in your impending bet getting voided. Each sportsbook's house rules differ, but according to FanDuel's football rules, "In the event of a change of venue, all bets will be void."
In this case, if you placed a wager at FanDuel before the venue change, your bet would be void.
Bills vs. Browns all-time series
The Browns lead the all-time series over the Bills with a 13-9 overall record. Cleveland won the last meeting between these two teams back in November 2019, when the Baker Mayfield-led Browns notched a 19-16 home win. Buffalo's last win in the series came in a 33-13 home victory back in December 2016, as Tyrod Taylor and the Bills had their way against the Robert Griffin III-led Browns.
Three trends to know
-- The Bills are in the midst of an UNDER streak, with six of their past seven games going under the total.
-- While Sunday's matchup is more of a neutral than true road game, Cleveland's had trouble in games away from FirstEnergy Stadium, sporting a 1-7 record straight up in their past eight road games.
-- According to BetQL, "the Browns have their own set of problems, going 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in their last six games. They haven’t won on the road since Week 1 and are coming off an ugly, 39-17 road loss to the Dolphins last week. To make matters worse, Cleveland is just 1-10 ATS under Kevin Stefanski when coming off a road loss."
Take advantage of BetQL’s 3-day free trial and see all of our best bets across all sports, including college football, NFL, and MLB!
Three things to watch for
Josh Allen's red-zone turnover issues
Converting in the red zone is always a major catalyst in a game's potential outcome (especially against the spread), and Josh Allen's recent red-zone struggles have caused the Bills to go on an 0-3 ATS streak. Allen enters Sunday having thrown a red-zone interception in three straight games after throwing just two in his previous 67 starts. It's certainly a challenge to operate your offense when the field shrinks, but Allen needs to clean up his play in the most crucial parts of the field.
Can Buffalo slow down Cleveland's ground game?
Headlined by running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, Cleveland is one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL, sporting a 48.3-percent run rate (seventh in NFL). Buffalo's been gashed by the run in its past three games, allowing 529 rushing yards, and sports one of the lower run defense grades (46.3) per PFF. Cleveland's likely aiming to manufacture long, methodical drives to run the clock and keep the Bills' offense off the field. If they're able to be efficient on the ground, Buffalo could be in trouble.
Can Jacoby Brissett keep up with Josh Allen?
While Cleveland wants to control the game script and play with a lead, there's a decent chance Buffalo gets ahead early and forces the Browns to play from behind. If Cleveland falls down multiple scores in the second half, can Brissett make enough plays with his arm to notch a backdoor cover? Brissett currently owns the 18th-best true passer rating (82.7) but does sport the sixth-highest QBR (61.6). He's shown flashes over his career that he's a capable gunslinger, but he was only able to lead the Browns to 17 points against a subpar Dolphins defense last week.
Stat that matters
36.3. That's Cleveland's run defense grade per PFF, which currently grades out as the league's lowest. While Buffalo employs a pass-first offense, their ability to exploit the Browns on the ground can make life that much easier for Josh Allen and company. We'll see if the Browns can be a bit more gap-sound to limit Devin Singletary's and James Cooks' effectiveness.
Bills vs. Browns prediction
Now that the game is being played in fair weather conditions, expect Buffalo to get back on track with a convincing win over the inconsistent Browns. Josh Allen shores up his red-zone turnover issues and the Bills' offense puts together a full 60-minute effort.
PREDICTION: Bills 31, Browns 21. Buffalo (-7.5) covers the spread with the game going OVER the total (49.5).
