When the Bills lost to the Broncos in Week 10 of the 2023 NFL season, many believed that signaled Buffalo wouldn't be competitive in the AFC.
At the time, the Bills were just 5-5. The AFC had seen several surprise contenders emerge within it, and it wasn't clear whether Buffalo would have what it takes to climb back into the wild-card race with a tough schedule upcoming.
Since that game, the Bills have managed to go 4-1 to work back into the postseason race. That included key wins over the Chiefs and Cowboys and a tightly contested battle with the Eagles as well.
Many now believe that the Bills are on track toward being a Super Bowl contender again, as their offense has looked better since Ken Dorsey's firing. The only question is whether they will make it into the playoffs.
The Bills' record has improved in recent weeks, but they remain behind in the AFC race. Can they close the gap in the final two weeks of the season?
Buffalo is on the right track with Saturday's narrow 24-22 win over the Chargers as the Bills overcame a James Cook fumble and were able to drive down the field and seal up a victory at the final opportunity.
MORE: Breaking down James Cook's 200-yard outburst against the Cowboys
Here's what to know about the Bills' playoff chances as they look to bolster them with a Week 16 win over the Chargers
Bills playoff picture
The Bills are now the No. 6 seed in the AFC thanks to their Week 16 win on Saturday and losses by both the Colts and Texans in the early window on Sunday.
| Seed | Team | Record |
| 1 | Ravens | 11-3 |
| 2 | Dolphins | 11-4 |
| 3 | Chiefs | 9-5 |
| 4 | Jaguars | 8-7 |
| 5 | Browns | 10-5 |
| 6 | Bills | 9-6 |
| 7 | Colts | 8-7 |
| 8 | Texans | 8-7 |
| 9 | Steelers | 8-7 |
| 10 | Bengals | 8-7 |
| 11 | Broncos | 7-8 |
While the Bills own the better record over the many 8-7 teams for now, they are behind in two key tiebreaker categories. They have lost head-to-head against the Bengals, who owned the No. 6 seed most recently, while they have a worse record against conference opponents (5-5) than the Colts (6-4).
That will put the Bills at a disadvantage if they stumble at all down the stretch.
Still, they are currently in the No. 6 spot in the conference, so they will be in control of their own destiny over the final two weeks of the season. That's a welcome spot for Buffalo and its fans after the team's midseason slump.
POWER RANKINGS: Where Bills rank among NFL's best teams entering Week 16
Bills remaining schedule
The good news for the Bills is that their remaining schedule ranks as the 10th-easiest in the NFL, according to Tankathon. Their opponents have a combined record of 13-15, or a .464 strength of schedule.
Below is a look at the two games remaining on Buffalo's schedule.
| Week | Opponent | Record |
| 17 | vs. Patriots | 3-11 |
| 18 | at Dolphins | 10-4 |
The Bills have one tough game remaining against the 10-4 Dolphins on the road in Week 18. That said, it should be noted that Buffalo crushed Miami 48-20 earlier in the season and matches up well on defense with Miami's speedy offense. So, the Bills might be able to win that one even in a hostile environment.
Either way, the Bills have already defeated the Chargers and are heavily favored to take down the Patriots, as they look to avenge a bad loss to New England earlier in the season.
And if the Bills can win their next one while seeing the Dolphins lose to either the Cowboys or Ravens, then they will set up a winner-take-all battle for the AFC East crown in Week 18.
WEEK 16 PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread
Bills' updated playoff chances
The Bills entered Week 16 with a 63.1 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to Sporting News' expert predictive model. Those stem from Buffalo's 41.3 percent chance to win a wild-card berth — second to only Houston (41.8 percent) among AFC teams with an 8-6 record — and their 21.8 percent chance to win the AFC East.
A win over the Chargers has helped solidify Buffalo's playoff chances, especially with the Texans set to play a second consecutive game without C.J. Stroud.
Either way, the Bills have the best playoff chances compared to AFC teams sitting at 8-6. So whether they manage to make a run at the divisional crown or simply settle for a wild-card battle, Buffalo fans will be happy that the team managed to claw back into the playoff race amid what looked, for a while, to be a lost season.
