For the first time in NFL history, a team will play consecutive games across the pond when the Jaguars do battle against the red-hot Bills (-5.5) in Week 5 (9:30 a.m. ET, NFLN).
Jacksonville improved to 2-2 on the young season in London last week, securing a 23-7 win over the Falcons thanks to a dominant defensive performance. Meanwhile, Buffalo won its third straight game, outclassing the previously unbeaten Dolphins 48-20. Which squad has the edge to cover the spread at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday?
Below, we'll give you all the information you need before placing a wager on Bills-Jaguars, including the updated odds from BetMGM, and our predictions for this Week 5 matchup across the pond.
Bills vs. Jaguars odds, spread, over/under
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Spread: Bills -5.5 (-110) | Jaguars +5.5 (-110)
Total: OVER 48.5 (-110) | UNDER 48.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Bills -250 | Jaguars +165
Buffalo initially opened as 4.5-point favorites but has since moved to -5.5, thanks, in part, to Sean McDermott's crew producing an impressive +90 point differential over the past three weeks. Despite a shaky start in Week 1 against the Jets, the Bills have been playing solid football in all three phases, and they appear to be strong contenders for the AFC's No. 1 seed come playoff time.
While Jacksonville managed to break its two-game losing streak last week, it hasn't seen much early money, with the spread moving against it by one point. The Jaguars still need to put together a full 60-minute effort. Could Sunday be the day they finally do it? Is this matchup a classic "buy-low, sell-high" scenario? Additionally, how much of an advantage do the Jaguars gain by staying in London for an extra week?
Should you bet the Bills against the spread?
Although Buffalo's looked like the NFL's best team over the past three weeks, we're selling high on the Bills in this one. While he hasn't quite lived up to the hype in the early go, Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars offense still rank 11th in drop-back success rate (48%), as they've done a fine job of staying on schedule.
The high-variance late downs have doomed them, but ultimately, a team that can get into third-and-manageable will start to find success. It's only a matter of time until the Jaguars' third-down conversion rate of 31.37 percent (29th) ticks closer to the league average. We'll see how impactful Bills' CB Tre'Davious White's absence is against a talented Jaguars receiving corps.
While Jacksonville's aerial attack has been above average, the run game hasn't. Jacksonville ranks 27th in rush EPA (-0.198) and 28th in rush success rate (37.55). The good news for the Jags is that left tackle Cam Robinson, whose presence will be a much-needed boost to the ground game, is eligible to return after serving a four-game suspension. That could lead to the Jaguars posting their most efficient rushing game this season.
It's hard to bet against the red-hot Bills right now, but relative to their EPA/play numbers (-0.100 EPA/play; seventh in NFL), the Jaguars' defense is the best stop unit the Bills will face. Since tossing three interceptions in the Bills' Week 1 loss to the Jets, Josh Allen's complied a strong 8:1 TD-to-INT ratio. Can he play clean football on Sunday?
We bet numbers, not teams. If this spread were under a field goal, we'd lean toward the Bills, but with it sitting at 5.5, Jacksonville's our pick. The Bills pull out a three-point win, but more important, the Jaguars cover the spread.
Our Pick: Jaguars +5.5 (-110)
Final score prediction: Bills 24, Jaguars 21
Should you bet the Bills vs. Jaguars OVER?
While the Jaguars' defense ranks seventh in EPA/play, Buffalo's stop unit ranks fifth (-0.192). Losing White (Achilles') certainly hurts the Bills secondary, but Buffalo has enough depth on the back end to shore up his loss.
Yes, the Bills nearly hit this OVER by themselves last week, but a Jaguars defense that's totaled the seventh-most pressures (42) figures to get into the backfield to disrupt Allen. We'd be remiss if we didn't highlight how dominant the Bills' defensive line has been, leading the league in pressure rate (32.1%), so we could see Lawrence extending plays outside the pocket more than he'd like.
In a game with a relatively high total featuring two well-rounded defenses, bettors should take a chance on the UNDER 48.5 (-110).
Our Pick: UNDER 48.5 (-110)
Best Bills vs. Jaguars prop bet via SuperDraft
Travis Etienne, RB, Jaguars — OVER 63.5 rushing yards
Despite rushing for just 55 yards on 20 carries last week, we're backing Jacksonville's RB1 to have success on the ground. Buffalo's run defense has been exploitable in the early go, surrendering the seventh-highest rushing success rate (44.3%).
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Buffalo gave up 143 rushing yards to the Dolphins in Week 4 on just 19 attempts, and with Etienne totaling the fourth-most carries to start the year (69), he's seeing enough volume to potentially post his best rushing performance of the season.
