In a game priced with one of the highest point spreads of the season, the 3-2 Bills (-14) look to rebound after their five-point loss in London, hosting the reeling 1-4 Giants on Sunday Night Football (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC).
Despite losing a one-score game to a respectable Jaguars bunch, the Bills are expected to get back in the win column, as their moneyline price of -900 pits them with an implied win probability of 90 percent. Buffalo looked like it had trouble adjusting to playing overseas, as Jacksonville controlled the game from the get-go. The Jaguars outgained the Bills 474-to-388, running 82 total plays and dominating the time of possession.
The Bills defense did a fine job of keeping them within striking distance, recording two red-zone turnovers and five sacks, but the offense didn't execute at the level it's capable of. A loss to the Jaguars is nothing to panic over, and by the time the game clock strikes zero on Sunday night, Bills fans will long forget about their Week 5 dud.
Meanwhile, the Giants were once again outclassed, this time by the Dolphins, falling 31-16 in Week 5. It wasn't nearly as rough as their Week 4 loss to the Seahawks, but Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor struggled under pressure, getting sacked seven times. A matchup against a Bills defensive line that leads the league in pressure rate (32.6 percent) despite blitzing at a below-average rate (21.9 percent) spells major trouble. To make matters worse, Jones is dealing with a neck injury and is considered "day-to-day".
Can the Giants offensive line wall up against an elite Bills pass rush, or will we see a second consecutive lopsided game on Sunday Night Football? Below, we'll give you all the information you need before placing a wager on Bills-Giants, including the updated odds from BetMGM, and our predictions for this Week 6 matchup.
Bills vs. Giants odds, spread, over/under
All odds courtesy of BetMGM
Spread: Bills -14 (-110) | Giants +14 (-110)
Total: OVER 44.5 (-110) | UNDER 44.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Bills -900 | Giants +575
A two-touchdown spread with a -900 moneyline likely means we'll see the Bills improve to 4-2 with the Giants remaining in the NFC East basement. Despite Giants' head coach Brian Daboll returning to familiar territory in Buffalo, it's hard to see a path to victory for a team struggling in all three phases. With the Giants averaging just 12.4 points per game this season and matching up against a stout Bills defense, a 44.5-point total is justified.
Should you bet the Bills against the spread?
It's never easy to advise betting on a two-touchdown favorite in the NFL, but how will the Giants offensive line hold up against an elite Bills pass rush? With the Bills likely controlling the game script and putting scoreboard pressure on the Giants, we'll likely see the Giants pass at a high clip. That probably won't lend itself to a cover for the Giants, so we'd lean toward betting the Bills at -14 (-110). The spread is always the great equalizer, and while there isn't much "value" laying -14 (-110) on Buffalo, we think they ultimately win this game by 15-plus points.
That said, the Bills run defense is exploitable, most recently allowing Travis Etienne to rush for 136 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries. If Saquon Barkley's healthy enough to return from an ankle injury, we could see him have some success on the ground. New York's path to a cover and victory resembles Jacksonville's last week. Control the pace with long possessions by establishing the ground game to open up play-action opportunities.
While there's a path to a Giants cover, we don't think it's likely. We'll side with the Bills even at this inflated price. Even if Jones can't go and Taylor steps in, we won't see too drastic of a shift in the point spread. We'd likely beat the closing line betting Buffalo at -14 (-110), but given Jones' early-season struggles, the dropoff from Jones to Taylor isn't as big as some might expect.
Our Pick: Bills -14 (-110)
Final score prediction: Bills 31, Giants 14
Should you bet the Bills vs. Giants OVER?
Since we expect a much better offensive showing from the Bills after their 20-point effort in Week 5, we recommend betting the OVER 44.5 (-110). In most cases, the rationale for betting an OVER rests on both offenses having success, but in this game, the Bills can do most of the heavy lifting. We could see the Bills put up 35-plus points themselves, and even with some weather concerns, we'd bet on a higher-scoring game than expected.
Buffalo was a bit unfortunate to score just 20 points last week, and against a significantly worse Giants defense, look for Josh Allen and company to get back on track.
Our Pick: OVER 44.5 (-110)
Best Bills vs. Giants prop bet via SuperDraft
James Cook, RB, Bills — OVER 56.5 rushing yards
Cook was bottled up by a stout Jaguars rush defense in Week 5 (five carries, -4 yards), but he's a prime bounce-back candidate against Giants defense that struggles to stop the run. Entering Week 6, the Giants rank 25th in rush success rate (43.6%), and they've been one of the weaker rush defenses on a down-to-down basis.
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Cook's seen reliable volume in Buffalo's three wins this season, averaging close to 15 carries per game and 83.3 rushing yards in those wins. In a game we expect Buffalo to control from the opening kick, this number is more than doable.
