When the Bills play at the Dolphins to close Week 18 in the 2023 NFL season finale on "Sunday Night Football" (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC), the AFC East title will be on the line. Buffalo might also be playing for any kind of playoff berth, while Miami already has clinched at least a wild card.
The stakes are high for both teams in this rematch of a Week 4 game won by the Bills 48-20 in Buffalo. The Bills (10-6) come into the game having won four in a row, while the Dolphins (11-5) are trying to recover from a 56-19 drubbing to the Ravens in Week 17.
Here's a betting breakdown and prediction for SNF:
Bills vs. Dolphins odds, spread, over/under
(All odds courtesy of Sports Interaction)
Spread: Bills -3 (-110) | Dolphins +3 (-105)
Over/Under: OVER 49.5 (-110) | UNDER 49.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Bills -165 | Dolphins +140
The Bills have been field-goal favorites since early in the week based on recent results. The total is high, but not quite 50, as both teams have some passing game limitations and possible turnover issues.
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Should you bet the Bills against the spread vs. the Dolphins?
The Bills are the better overall team at the moment and just as important, much healthier overall. The Dolphins' defense has struggled against better offenses, and their offense is dealing with key injuries to running back Raheem Mostert (knee, ankle) and Jaylen Waddle (ankle).
The Bills' offense has been rolling since a pivot to new coordinator Joe Brady, who has helped Josh Allen be careful with the ball and lean more on James Cook and the traditional running game. The Dolphins' offense is balanced, but it's proved not to be as deep and versatile around Tua Tagovailoa.
Our Pick: Bills -3 (-110)
Should you bet the Bills-Dolphins OVER?
The Bills' defense rose to the occasion in the first matchup. The Dolphins' offense is the same automatic, explosive group when facing better teams. The Bills also can make mistakes with Allen but also slow down the game effectively when needed with Cook.
Our Pick: UNDER 47 (-110)
Final score prediction: Bills 24, Dolphins 20
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