The Bills and Chiefs — one of the AFC's best rivalries over the past half-decade — will once again do battle in the AFC Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs this Sunday (6:30 p.m. ET, CBS).
This will mark the sixth time Bills star QB Josh Allen has dueled with reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes. It also marks their third meeting in the playoffs, and their first postseason tilt at Highmark Stadium. Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and the Chiefs got the better of Allen and the Bills at Arrowhead Stadium two years ago in an epic divisional round thriller and three years ago in the AFC Championship Game,
Both teams finished 11-6 in the regular season, but took wildly different paths to get there.
Kansas City started 6-1 before limping across the finish line with a 5-5 record in its final 10 games. Conversely, Buffalo started 6-6 but then won out in its last five games of the season, ultimately clinching the AFC East — and the No. 2 seed — in a winner-take-all Week 18 victory over the division-rival Dolphins.
The Will Kansas City exact its revenge after the brutal Kadarius Toney offensive offsides negated the would-be go-ahead touchdown in their Week 14 matchup? Or, will Buffalo get the better of the Chiefs for the second time in six weeks — and the first time in the playoffs since 1994?
Let's dive into this one, running down all the odds for Bills-Chiefs in Buffalo and making our predictions for what could be one of the most entertaining games of the past year.
Bills vs. Chiefs spread, over/under and line movement
All odds courtesy of Sports Interaction, Canada's most trusted sportsbook. Bet on this weekend's NFL games now!
- Spread: Bills -3 (+100) | Chiefs +3 (-120)
- Total: OVER 45.5 (-110) | UNDER 45.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Bills -145 | Chiefs +120
This field-goal spread easily ranks as the tightest of the four divisional-round games, and it opened even shorter at -2.5. If this game was on neutral ground, it would have almost certainly opened as a pick'em, considering oddsmakers didn't even give the home-team Bills a 60 percent implied win probability.
Bettors quickly bet that line up to -3, but since then the Chiefs have taken on plenty of action. That's probably because Mahomes is 8-1-1 lifetime against the spread as an underdog, and 7-3 straight up as a 'dog. Still, we understand Sports Interaction playing it safe since this will be the first road playoff game of Mahomes' career and he's coming off the most disappointing regular season of his six years as a starter.
Kansas City averaged just 20.8 points per road game this season, and lost to Buffalo 20-17 at home when these teams met last month. So, the over/under moving from 47 to 45.5 makes plenty of sense. However, tread lightly with the UNDER, as the first two postseason duels between Allen and Mahomes averaged a whopping 70 points.
Bills vs. Chiefs prediction against the spread
Despite Allen's rough track record against Mahomes and the Chiefs throughout his career — not to mention the myriad injuries Buffalo is dealing with on the defensive side of the football — we have Sean McDermott's Bills finally getting over the hump and beating Kansas City.
The Chiefs are a shell of the team we saw win the Super Bowl 11 months ago. They led the NFL in drops, they didn't get the kind of game-breaking impact on a week-to-week basis we have come to expect from Travis Kelce, and they failed to exceed 21 points a whopping 10 times.
The Bills, meanwhile, have exceeded 21 points in each of their past six home games. Their average points per game at Highmark Stadium since Week 1: 29.7. That's 8.9 PPG more than KC's road average.
Devil's advocates will point to the Bills' hobbled defense, which seems like a valid concern. Stud linebacker Terrel Bernard, weakside LB Tyrel Dodson, and key defensive backs Christian Benford, Taron Johnson, and Rasul Douglas are all either out or questionable this weekend.
But Buffalo played with passion on D last week, forcing multiple turnovers to set the tone for the game. And the way Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, James Cook, and company are playing right now, they won't need many opportunities to seize an advantage over the Chiefs.
Buffalo has won each of its past four games by a combined 67 points, and it's no coincidence that the Bills have won the turnover battle across those four contests by a total margin of 9-2. Back the Bills Mafia and bet on the boys from Buffalo to finally come out on the right side of a playoff game with KC.
Our Pick: Bills (-3)
Bills vs. Chiefs over-under prediction
Our projection does have the total going OVER by a hair, but there's little to no value in this number and no consistency to support a bet either way. Across each team's past 10 games, the OVER has gone just 4-6. And we already mentioned how inconsistent Kansas City has been on the road, averaging just 20.8 PPG and getting held between 9-19 points four different times by bum defenses (Jaguars, Broncos, Packers, Chargers).
If anything, we would contemplate betting the Chiefs' team UNDER of 21.5 (-110) or the Bills' team OVER of 24.5 (+105). However, we can't possibly list either of those options as a 'best bet.' We've seen Mahomes become an on-field magician far too many times to confidently bet Kansas City's UNDER, and we've seen Allen do his wild-wild west shootout impression and launch unforced errors into coverage too many times to confidently back Buffalo's OVER.
So, we'll tell you how we would approach each over/under if we were betting them, but we will also offer a word to the wise to tread lightly if you take the plunge. As our final score prediction suggests, this one
Our Pick: OVER 45.5 (-110); Bills OVER 24.5 (+105); Chiefs UNDER 21.5 (-110)
Final score prediction: Bills 26, Chiefs 20 — Buffalo wins and covers (-3) and the total goes OVER (45.5) by the slimmest of margins.
Best Bills vs. Chiefs player prop: Isiah Pacheco (-105) vs. James Cook (most rushing yards)
Cook has certainly played a larger role than ever before since Joe Brady took over for Ken Dorsey as Buffalo's offensive coordinator in the second half of the season. However, the second-year back's numbers still pale in comparison to fellow 2023 draft class member Pacheco.
Cook has reached 80 yards rushing just once in eight games since Thanksgiving, while Pacheco has surpassed that threshold four times in that span (and in three of the past four weeks). Diving even further, Buffalo has allowed just 97.6 rushing yards per game since its Week 13 bye. Since Kansas City's Week 10 bye, Steve Spagnuolo's defense has surrendered 110.1 rushing YPG.
As bettors, we also must go by the eye test and compare the offenses around these backs. Pacheco runs harder and means more to his team's offense as a whole than Cook, and we expect Mahomes to lean on his back while Allen leans more on his throwing arm. Smash Pacheco for the head-to-head victory with minimal juice.
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