NFL 2023 Comeback Player of the Year Odds, Best Bets: Damar Hamlin opens as heavy betting favorite — and for good reason

The 2023 NFL season kicks off September 7, which seems like an eternity to diehard football fans. But one way to pass the time this summer is to hit the NFL futures market and bet on some awards. One of the more compelling awards race this season — Comeback Player of the Year — might be over before the season even starts. 

The top 'comeback story' each year tends to be a player who recovered from a major injury and got back on the field to contribute to wins and/or rack up significant statistics. The player everyone will be waiting to see get back onto the field — and the expected story of the NFL year — is Bills defensive back Damar Hamlin.

In case you don't know Hamlin's story, get out from under your rock house so we can quickly explain it. Hamlin's Bills were playing against the Bengals in Cincinnati on Monday Night Football last season when Hamlin went for a tackle and then collapsed on the field due to cardiac arrest.

Cincy's medical team rushed the field to initiate life-saving measures, ultimately reviving him and then proceeding to rush him into an ambulance and to University of Cincinnati Medical Center. A week later, Hamlin left the hospital to head back home to New York and begin his journey back to the football field.

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Let's not mince words — the 24-year-old Hamlin was dead on the field in front of his teammates and coaches, the Bengals, tens of thousands of fans in-person, and tens of millions of TV viewers. All said, resuscitation efforts lasted nearly 10 minutes as stunned audiences watched in horror.

But they brought Hamlin back to life. Then Hamlin responded amazingly to treatment over the coming days. And in no time, he was posting to social media to the shocked delight of basically all of America — not just sports fans. 

That's why Hamlin, who's on track to return to meaningful games this fall, will run away with NFL Comeback Player of the Year. His story became bigger than football and much more important than the NFL. People of all ages, races, creeds, and interests rooted this kid on, and most will likely continue to well after his first game back on the field. 

Hamlin isn't just a captivating story because he cheated death — he's also a remarkable human being, and has been since before he became a household name. The safety, who will enter his third NFL season this September, has operated a charity called the "Chasing M's Foundation" that served underprivileged youth through things like food and toy drives.

After his collapse, a GoFundMe benefiting Chasing M's was set up. At last check, that fundraiser has topped $9 million. Now Hamlin has a vastly increased list of charitable objectives for Chasing M's and society in general. The new goal of his charity is "dedicated to the development, health, safety, and aspirations of youth and community members through sports and education."

“I wake up every day and think about how I can impact the world in a positive way," Hamlin said recently. "That's what I care about if you take away everything else.” 

Hamlin recently went on a CPR tour to increase awareness and promote the importance of knowing first aid and resuscitation techniques. He's using his unexpected rise in stardom for the better, something everyone wishes they saw more of from the world of sports celebrities. 

Hamlin sits as a whopping -300 favorite to win the 2023 Comeback Player of the Year Award. That's a 75 percent implied winning probability. A week ago, his odds were even shorter: -350.

But bettors know better than to attack a futures bet with that much juice months before the season. Instead, the majority of Comeback bettors went after Broncos QB Russell Wilson at +2500, making him BetMGM's biggest liability with 38.8 percent of the handle. 

As a result of Mr. Unlimited seeing so much action — as well as some love coming in for Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (who suffered multiple concussions throughout the 2022 season), the Hamlin odds started to dip. However, the safety is still appearing on over nine percent of Comeback tickets and represents nearly eight percent of all Comeback money bets. And, as you'll see in a moment, he's still the overwhelming favorite to come away with the award.

Let's take a look at the 2023 Comeback Player of the Year odds, and then discuss the market report and BetMGM bettor insights. 

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Any other year, Tua would be the odds-on favorite to take down Comeback Player of the Year after suffering from multiple concussions and appearing on track to return to the dominant Dolphins offense this season. But Hamlin has the trump card of all trump cards — he died and came back to life, returned to football, and used his newfound celebrity for the greater good of humanity and society. 

You'll also notice that the field below Hamlin is largely comprised of skill-position players. QBs, wideouts, and running backs tend to take down Comeback Player honors because they tend to be the most frequently-discussed as well as the players who more often than not get credited for their teams' success.

Besides Hamlin and Tua, we understand why people would flock to Lamar Jackson. The former MVP had a down season by his standards in 2022, and then got hurt and joined multiple key Ravens on the IR. A player with Jackson's strong arm and blistering speed will always have a shot at taking down every offensive award — and in this case, he's a strong dark horse for Comeback Player. 

You want a couple value bets? Don't forget about Jonathan Taylor and Cooper Kupp, who led the league in rushing and receiving (respectively) just two seasons ago but battled injuries and awful offenses around them in 2022. Both should be able to bounce back well this year, although we still have our reservations with the QB situation of both Indianapolis and the L.A. Rams. 

Long shot? Give me Patriots QB Mac Jones, who should be closer to the stud we saw in his rookie year now that rocket man Matt Patricia isn't outthinking himself in the offensive coordinator char this season. Bill O'Brien is a much better play-caller, and the addition of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mike Gesicki, Ed Lee, and possibly DeAndre Hopkins could turn these Pats into a playoff team again. In Bill Belichick we trust. 

NFL Comeback Player 2023: BetMGM Market Report

The betting public can back Russell Wilson all they want — we learned last year (when we called him a preseason MVP sleeper) that he's washed, and no amount of coaching changes or healthy receivers around him can convince us that Russ is worth nearly 40 percent of the Comeback Player of the Year action. 

It makes a ton of sense that Hamlin has the second-most action despite being the only juiced player on the board. He's the man, and the only way he fails to take this award down is if he can't play more than half the season's games. In that case, the market tends to agree that it will likely be one of the QBs, Taylor, or Kupp taking it down. 

Calvin Ridley is a surprising name to see in the mix — we don't expect the wideout to get many votes after his suspension for betting on games last year (albeit through DFS, but still...dumb). We also don't expect Odell Beckham to play nearly as well as he would need to in order to garner Comeback consideration from the media.

T.J. Watt, the former Defensive Player of the Year, has a better shot than Ridley and OBJ at +10000, given his insane upside, ability to anchor a defense, and his track record for helping otherwise-awful Steelers teams contend for the playoffs. 

Again, these are long shots. The smart money is on Hamlin -300 or a young athletic QB projected for serious positive regression. At least now you know the expected candidates enough to determine how you want to spend your Comeback cash, and you can now ascertain how the betting public is approaching the Comeback market.

As the odds are currently constituted, we'll be spreading our money around on this one — just like the storylines will be spread all over the place at the beginning of the season. But our best bet — and the predominant comeback story that will likely never lose its luster completely — is Hamlin. 

Betting advice: If Hamlin dips to -250 or better, we're smashing a $200 bet on him for the chance to win $280. As it currently stands, we're probably putting $150 on him (for a potential return of $200), $25 on Tua at +2000 (for a potential return of $525), $15 on Lamar Jackson at +2000 (for a return of $315), $5 on Mac Jones ($405 payout), and $5 on T.J. Watt ($505). It's like the Roulette wheel — all we need is to hit on one!