At long last, the NFL Playoffs have arrived. Super Wild Card Weekend features a half-dozen matchups containing countless storylines and compelling matchups, not to mention prime value opportunities on the betting market. Our best bets will highlight our favorite moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop wagers for this exciting three-day slate of NFL action.
Most of you know the deal by now. Every Friday, we run the NFL betting gauntlet and handpick the best value opportunities on Sports Interaction. We then tell you exactly how and why you should attack the books to make some money. And through 18 weeks, we have made plenty of money.
Last week, our moneyline, spread, and player prop picks combined to go 6-3 but our over/under bets went just 1-3 (including the Rams scoring 21 when we had their UNDER of 20.5...bleh!). An underwhelming 7-6 week overall pushes our season-long best bets record to 164-130-2. That's a .558 winning percentage, not too shabby in a season filled with stunning upsets, surprise developments, myriad injuries, and more backup QBs than ever before.
However, we want bigger and better results, and the postseason is a great time to significantly boost our bankroll. With the right mindset, proper level of research, and consistent preparedness, we view wagering on the NFL Playoffs as an investment, not a gamble — and we're loving our return on investment through 18 weeks.
MORE WILD CARD WEEKEND BETTING:
Vinnie Iyer against the spread | Bill Bender on the moneyline
Let's run it back and get to our best moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop bets for Super Wild Card Weekend of the NFL season. Good luck, have fun, and enjoy the games!
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props
NFL Best Bets for Wild Card Weekend: Against the spread
Bills (-9) vs. Steelers
This feels like one of the more lopsided playoff games in recent history, but sportsbooks refuse to give a Mike Tomlin team double-digit points at this time of year. Well, we're backing the red-hot Bills at home with a winter storm warning because Buffalo has much more firepower on both sides of the ball.
Josh Allen is head-and-shoulders more effective — especially in this type of game — than Mason Rudolph. James Cook and veteran Leornard "Playoff Lenny" Fournette should play a big role in the Bills' rushing attack. Stefon Diggs and the Bills' 1-2 tight end punch of Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid should be busy in the short, intermediate, and screen games.
Pittsburgh should be able to hold its own offensively, but it's the other side of the ball that we worry about. With Defensive Player of the Year candidate T.J. Watt sidelined with an MCL sprain, who will put pressure on Allen?
The Steelers had enough trouble with Watt the last two times they played a road game against a starting unit, giving up 23 points and 369 yards in Seattle and 30 points and 372 yards in Indianapolis. Buffalo will wipe the frozen floor with Pittsburgh this weekend.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Bills 26, Steelers 13
Browns (-2) at Texans
A lot of bettors seem to be backing Rookie of the Year frontrunner C.J. Stroud and the Texans in this game, but we can't get away from the career-resurgent Joe Flacco and his high-flying Browns. No QB had a better home stetch than Flacco in his 4-1 stretch to close out the season and help provide Cleveland with the best record for a non-division winning team. His per-game stats blew everyone away: 323.2 yards, 2.6 TDs, a 6.4 percent TD rate. Simply stunning. If Amari Cooper goes off like we expect him to this weekend, Houston may have a problem.
And we haven't even talked about the fact that Myles Garrett and the Browns have arguably the best defense in the NFL. Cleveland has allowed the fewest total yards, passing yards, first downs, and third-down and fourth-down conversion rates in the NFL. Browns opponents also average the shortest drive time, the fewest plays per drive, and the least amount of points per possession in the league. This team is utterly dominant in every sense, and we can't imagine Stroud will be able to come out on top with Nico Collins as his only real impact player.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Browns 24, Texans 20
One Super Wild Card Weekend spreads we like: Lions -0.5 (1Q) vs. Rams; Cowboys -4 (1H) vs. Packers (-110)
Best NFL moneyline bets for Wild Card Weekend
Eagles -125 (1Q) at Buccaneers
This game was a very interesting one to analyze, as the defending NFC-champion Eagles have lost five of their past six games, the Bucs are only hosting a playoff game because somebody had to win the weak NFC South, and the forecast calls for torrential downpours in Tampa all weekend. Ultimately, we decided to back Philly -125 to start strong and win the first quarter, as the Eagles' full-game moneyline is juiced up to -160 and we don't trust their -3 ATS on the road.
Here's why we think Nick Sirianni's squad should storm out to a big lead: Jalen Hurts, D'Andre Swift, and the Eagles' offensive line. If weather plays a factor in this game and it becomes a ground-and-pound affair, Philadelphia will have the upper hand. No team is better at dictating the pace on the ground in ugly, knock-down drag-out affairs, and no play has been more dominant in the modern era of the NFL than the tush-push.
We also question Tampa's secondary, which has been underwhelming all season and must now contain A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. Even if Philly employs a dink-and-dunk strategy — or goes heavy in the screen game — the Bucs will have their hands full trying to slow down the Eagles' plethora of impact skill-position players. Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, and Rachaad White will make some noise this weekend, but not enough to knock out the reigning NFC champs.
SCORE PREDICTIONS: Eagles 7, Buccaneers 6 (1Q); Eagles 24, Buccaneers 23 (final)
Other Super Wild Card Weekend moneylines we like: Lions (-165) vs. Rams; Browns (-130) at Texans
Best NFL over/under bets for Wild Card Weekend
Dolphins at Chiefs: OVER 43.5 (-110)
The most heavily bet UNDER this weekend is Dolphins-Chiefs 43.5, with bettors far and wide expecting a nasty game due to the forecasted kickoff temperature of 0 degrees and the wind chill projected at -25. It's going to be so gosh darn cold at Arrowhead Stadium that some tickets to this game have plummeted to a little over $30.
However, we're talking about reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl-champion Chiefs taking on Mike McDaniel's high-flying Dolphins in the NFL Playoffs. Do we honestly think the cold weather will put a lid on scoring in this game? I don't.
Miami has arguably the fastest core of skill-position players in NFL history. Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane are a brutal rushing 1-2 punch, former Chief Tyreek Hill is the most explosive weapon in football, and Jaylen Waddle is one of the most sure-handed pass-catchers in the league. They might need wetsuits under their uniforms to get out there, but once they hit the field, they're not going to mail it in.
As for the Chiefs, we all know Mahomes and company hit a different gear in the postseason. Mahomes will run the ball 12 times if it means keeping Kansas City in this game. Travis Kelce and rookie wideout Rashee Rice should be utilized closer to the line of scrimmage.
But breakout running back Isiah Pacheco will be the true x-factor. Pacheco had 130 yards on the ground against Cincy last week, and he added seven catches on seven targets for 35 yards. In a cold-weather game in Green Bay last month, he put up 110 yards on just 18 carries. He runs fast and he runs hard, he will be the game-changer for Kansas City, and he will help us hit the OVER while the majority of the betting public groans in disappointment.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Chiefs 24, Dolphins 23
Other Wild Card Weekend over/under bets we like: Bills vs. Steelers: OVER 34 (-110); Browns OVER 21.5 at Texans (-140)
Best NFL player prop bets for Wild Card Weekend
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys vs. Packers — OVER 7.5 receptions (-130)
It seems preposterous to recommend the OVER on a seven-catch prop, but Lamb has turned into a video game cheat code so we actually consider this value. A plethora of good passing teams have picked apart the Packers' soft zone defense this season, so we have no reason to believe the best home offense in the NFL should have much trouble this weekend.
CeeDee's brilliance speaks for itself, though. The Offensive Player of the Year candidate has hauled in 13 catches in two consecutive games, combining for 325 yards during that span. He has logged double-digit catches in seven of the Cowboys' 17 games, and he finished the season with a league-high 135 receptions.
That's bad-news bears for a Packers secondary that just a few weeks ago allowed Baker Mayfield to throw for 381 yards and four TDs, and one week later let otherwise-awful rookie Bryce Young throw for 312 and two TDs. Buckle up, Green Bay fans, because Lamb is about to scorch the Cheese like my friends and I on Fondu night.
David Montgomery, RB, Lions vs. Rams — Anytime TD scorer (-115)
Montgomery might not be the fastest or most talented runner in the Lions' backfield — those superlatives belong to stud rookie Jahmyr Gibbs — but the veteran power back would most certainly win "Most likely to score a touchdown in the playoffs" over his running mate. There's a clear division of labor in Dan Campbell's system — Jahmyr catches balls and does damage between the 20s, Monty pushes forward in short-yardage and goal-line situations.
That's why the fifth-year back finished the season with a whopping 13 TDs on the ground — just like Jamaal Williams with Detroit last year, opponents know it's coming but still can't stop it most of the time. We're betting on Montgomery finding a way into the end zone just like he did in 11 regular-season games this season (including each of the Lions' last three).
Other Wild Card Weekend player props: Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams at Lions — OVER 6.5 receptions (+135); Jerome Ford, RB, Browns at Texans — OVER 42.5 rushing yards (-110); Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys vs. Packers — UNDER 14.5 rushing yards (-115)
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