As we sprint toward the New Year, many of us begin to set new goals — but as betting analysts, our No. 1 goal remains the same: to make our readers and followers more money. That begins this week with a massive 15-game NFL slate between Saturday and Sunday night. Our Week 17 best bets will highlight our favorite moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop bets of the final weekend of 2023.
Most of you know the deal by now. Every Friday, we run the NFL betting gauntlet and handpick the best value opportunities on Sports Interaction and SuperDraft. We then tell you exactly how and why you should attack the books to make some money. And through 16 weeks — despite some bumps in the road along the way — we have made plenty of money.
We hit the skids last week, breaking a stretch that saw us go 21-12 stretch since Week 14 and 40-25 since Week 12. Good thing my family and I had a nice Christmas, because it was a weekend to forget on the betting front. We went 5-11-1, our worst weekend of the year.
Still, we're 147-118-2 on best bets this season. That's a .555 winning percentage in a season filled with stunning upsets, surprise developments, myriad injuries, and more backup QBs than ever before.
Our core objective: Consistency. With the right mindset, proper level of research, and consistent preparedness, we see sports betting as an investment, not a gamble — and we're loving our return on investment through 16 weeks.
MORE WEEK 16 BETTING: Against the spread | Moneyline | Top props
Here's our best moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop bets for Week 17 of the NFL season. Good luck, have fun, and have a safe and happy New Year with your loved ones.
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props
NFL Best Bets Week 17: Against the spread
Chiefs -2.5 (1Q) vs. Bengals (-120)
It may feel difficult to back the defending-champion Chiefs right now — we get it. They just suffered their fourth loss in six games in a Christmas Day doozie against the visiting Raiders at Arrowhead. However, we have every reason to believe Patrick Mahomes and company will get up for this one. This could be the "get-right game" Kansas City has needed so desperately, setting the reigning champs up for some end-of-season momentum against the hapless Chargers in Week 18.
The Bengals have suffered multiple blows, none bigger than franchise QB Joe Burrow's season-ending wrist injury. Jake Browning had been filling in nicely, leading Cincy to three wins in a row over the Jaguars, Colts, and Vikings. But Mason Rudolph and the Steelers knocked the doors off Zac Taylor's squad in Week 16, racking up nearly 400 yards en route to a 34-11 blowout. Pittsburgh picked Browning off three times, and held Cincinnati out of the end zone on all three of its red-zone trips.
Kansas City should be able to capitalize on the weaknesses Cincy exhibited on both sides of the ball last week. Expect Steve Spagnuolo to try to confuse Browning with a similarly unpredictable defensive sets and constant adjustments like we saw from Teryl Austin's defense in Pittsburgh. And look for Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Rashee Rice to get off to the races early, with even more of a bang if Isiah Pacheco can clear concussion protocol by Sunday.
Kansas City ranks second in the NFL in scoring defense (17.7 points per game) and opponent yards (287.3 per game), and Andy Reid's squad has only allowed 3.4 points per first quarter this season (fifth-best in the league). With literally everything on the line for Mahomes and the Chiefs, we're betting on one of the best players in the world to rally the champs to a big early lead and never look back.
SCORE PREDICTION: Chiefs 10, Bengals 0 (1Q); Chiefs 27, Bengals 13 (final)
Rams -5.5 at Giants (-110)
The Rams have been cooking with gas since Matthew Stafford returned from his midseason injury. Since L.A.'s Week 10 bye week, Sean McVay's squad has won an incredible five of its past six games by a combined score of 148-91. Its one loss during that span was to the AFC-leading Ravens 37-31, making the Rams just the second team all season to score more than 24 points on Baltimore.
Puka Nacua still has an outside shot at MVP, Kyren Williams has been one of the steadiest running backs in football, and Aaron Donald the Rams have been one of the most difficult front-sevens to run against. Los Angeles ranks top eight in scoring and total yards while suffering the second-fewest turnovers all season.
On top of all that, the Giants will be starting Tyrod Taylor under center now that Tommy DeVito's 15 minutes of fame have concluded. Brian Daboll's squad got leveled by the Eagles last week, and we think it's entirely possible that L.A. is better than Philly from top to bottom right now. Smash the Rams by a TD over the G-men.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Rams 31, Giants 23
Other Week 17 spreads we like: Lions +5.5 at Cowboys (-110); Bears -0.5 (1Q) vs. Falcons (+115); Texans (-4) vs. Titans; Jaguars -5.5 vs. Panthers (-110)
Best NFL moneyline bets Week 17
Packers (-105) at Vikings
Give us a pick'em in a Packers-Vikings game in December and we'll take the Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love side every time. LaFleur has a 17-2 record in December games as Green Bay's head coach, while Love has passed for 263 passing yards per game, 13 TDs, and just one pick while leading the Pack to a 4-2 record over the past six weeks.
The Vikings, meanwhile, have been anything but consistent under center. Nick Mullens has six interceptions over their past two losses, and Minnesota has just one win over its past five games. The Vikes' defense has been much better than Green Bay's on the whole this season, but it has still surrendered 27 pointer per game over the past two weeks. If the Packers score 27, they win this game.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Packers 27, Vikings 26
Other Week 17 moneylines we like: Bears (-145) vs. Falcons; Buccaneers (-145) vs. Saints;
Best NFL over/under bets Week 17
Eagles OVER 28.5 vs. Cardinals (-150)
We're taking on some juice, but who cares? The Eagles just dropped 33 on the Giants in Philly, and now they're drawing a home game against a Cardinals defense that might be even worse. Across Arizona's two home games since Thanksgiving, Jonathan Gannon's squad has allowed the Rams and 49ers to combine for 82 points. Talk about a mouthwatering stat for Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, who average the fourth most points per home game in the NFL (30.9).
In fact, Philadelphia has scored 31 or more points in five of its seven home games this season — and that's despite a home schedule that has included Buffalo, Dallas, San Francisco, Miami, and the Vikings when they were still healthy. The Eagles find themselves in a three-way tie with the Niners and Lions atop the NFC, so they will be gunning for big wins to close out the season in hopes of that all-important No. 1 seed (though San Fran owns the tie-breaker over Philly, it does have a Week 18 matchup with the Rams that will be much harder than the Eagles' final two games against the Cards and Giants).
Kyler Murray has not looked great since returning from his torn ACL. He's completing a career-low 62.3 percent of his passes, he's averaging 217.5 passing yards per game, and his QB rating is a dreadful 81.9. He has averaged just 6.3 yards per passing attempt, an average we have seen from Bailey Zappe and Zach Wilson this season. Now we're hearing that Kyler is sick and missing practices this week? Gannon and his Cards are going to get leveled by his former squad in Philly.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Eagles 33, Cardinals 16
Other Week 17 over/unders we like: Lions at Cowboys: OVER 52.5 (-110); Chargers at Broncos: OVER 36.5 (-110); Patriots UNDER 14.5 at Bills (-165)
Best NFL player prop bets Week 17
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D'Andre Swift, RB, Eagles vs. Cardinals — OVER 68.5 rushing yards
The Eagles snapped their three-game losing streak last week against the Giants thanks in large part to 170 rushing yards, 92 of which came from Swift. Now the veteran running back moves from the third-most generous defense to opposing RBs (New York) to the second-most generous (Arizona), with Philly remaining at home.
We're not quite sure why SuperDraft set this number so low, but we'll take it. Swift has hit 70 yards seven times this season, including each of the past two games and four of the past six weeks. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have surrendered 123.4 rushing yards per game to RBs on the season and a whopping 174.5 total rushing yards per game over their past six contests. Smash the OVER and finish the Year of the Swift in style.
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: How to play SuperDraft
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers at Commanders — OVER 67.5 receiving yards
Aiyuk has been one of the most underrated wideouts in the NFL this season, in large part because San Francisco has been an embarrassment of offensive riches. The dude has averaged 85.9 receiving yards per game and a league-leading 18.5 yards per reception, both easily career-highs.
Now Aiyuk faces a Commanders defense that has allowed the most points and yards in the NFL this season, and has surrendered 275 passing yards per game over its past six contests. Aiyuk is a fantastic play this weekend in what should be a bounce-back game for Brock Purdy and the Niners.
Chris Olave, WR, Saints at Buccaneers — OVER 66.5 receiving yards
Olave has been one of the only consistent bright spot in a passing game that has often been otherwise dismal, and we're betting his OVER with confidence against a very beatable Buccaneers secondary. No defense has surrendered more receiving yards per game than the Bucs (194.9), and Olave has hauled in between 94 and 123 yards in four of New Orleans' past five games, so we're all-in on this one.
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