Happy holidays, best bets friends! We love this time of year — not just for the food and fun with family and friends, but also for the fantastic football.
Every Friday, we unveil my best bets across the board for the upcoming weekend of NFL action. We run the gauntlet and handpick the best value opportunities on Sports Interaction and SuperDraft, then tell you exactly how and why you should attack the books to make some money. And through 15 weeks — despite some bumps in the road in November — we have made plenty of money.
We went 6-1 against the spread last week and 2-1 on the moneyline. We went 1-1 on our player props and hit the skids a bit with our over/under picks, missing one OVER by two points (Rams-Commanders) and one by 0.5 (Browns vs. Bears). Basically, we were 3.5 points away from a 13-4 week. But, alas, we'll take 11-6 every damn time.
That makes our best bets 21-12 over the past two weeks, 40-25 since Week 12, and 142-107-1 on the season. That's a season-long winning percentage of .570, putting us well on track for our goal of a .600 winning percentage by the end of the 2023 NFL season.
Our objective: Consistency. With the right mindset, proper level of research, and consistent preparedness, we see sports betting as an investment, not a gamble — and we're loving our return on investment through 15 weeks.
MORE WEEK 16 BETTING: Against the spread | Moneyline | Top props
Here's our best moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop bets for Week 16 of the NFL season. Good luck, have fun, and have a safe and happy holiday with your loved ones.
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props
NFL Best Bets Week 16: Against the spread
Seahawks (-3) at Titans (-115)
The Seahawks just stunned a 10-win Eagles squad in Philly last week, and now they get Geno Smith back against a porous Titans secondary. Tennessee, meanwhile, gets Ryan Tannehill back under center — but we're not so sure that's even a good thing at this point.
Over Tannehill's past 10 starts, the Titans have gone 2-8 while averaging 16.6 points and 290.2 total yards. Now they face a Seattle defense that has let opponents score on just 39.4 percent of drives this season — and just held Jalen Hurts and the high-flying Eagles to 17 points and 143 passing yards!? Yeah, give us the 'Hawks.
Pete Carroll and his squad always seem to find a way to make things interesting. Seattle's playoff probability drops to 28 percent with a loss this week skyrockets to 65 percent with a win. Does anyone really expect Geno Smith and the Seahawks to drop this one? Who will cover D.K. Metcalf!?
Kenneth Walker III just hit his stride against Philly, one of the tougher run defenses in the NFL, while fallen king Derrick Henry became the first player in history to record just 10 yards on 20 touches. Put Seattle on the 'nice list' and smash-bet the road favorites here.
SCORE PREDICTION: Seahawks 23, Titans 17
Bengals (-3) at Steelers (-105)
Jake Browning has been pretty damn good for the Bengals of late, while Mitch Trubisky was so bad in relief of the injured Kenny Pickett that Pittsburgh had to roll out Rudolph the third-string QB just in time for Christmas. Well, sorry, Steelers Nation, but this will be a Festivus for the rest of us.
Mike Tomlin's secondary has been pretty bad all year — it might have the worst cornerbacks in the AFC — but it could get even worse this weekend with Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee) injured and Damontae Kazee suspended for three games for a hit on the Colts' Michael Pittman. The Steelers let Indy put 30 points and 372 total yards on them, and failed to force a turnover.
Even though Cincy will be without Ja'Marr Chase, we love Zac Taylor's squad this weekend. Browning has the Bengals averaging 302 passing yards per game over their three-game winning streak, during which they have scored a whopping 95 points.
Joe Mixon and Chase Brown have also been incredible, helping Cincy average 115.6 yards on the ground. Mason Rudolph can't guide the Steelers' struggle-bus of a sleigh to victory this weekend, and Tomlin could be getting coal in his stocking this Christmas.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Bengals 24, Steelers 17
Other Week 16 spreads we like: Packers (-4.5) at Panthers (-115); Eagles -13.5 vs. Giants (-110); Bills (-12.5) at Chargers (-110)
Best NFL moneyline bets Week 16
Dolphins (-115) vs. Cowboys
Dak Prescott and the Cowboys still can't get that elusive 'signature win' on the road — in fact, they just got absolutely demolished in Buffalo last weekend. The ghost of James Cook came to life in that one, racking up 221 all-purpose yards and two TDs en route to a 31-10 stomping. Now Dallas must go into Hard Rock and try to contain Tua, Raheem Mostert, De'Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle? That's hilarious.
The Dolphins have gone 6-1 with a +19.4 average scoring margin at home this season. The Cowboys are 3-4 on the road and 0-3 when visiting teams above .500. They have been outscored by Philly, San Francisco, and Buffalo in those road losses by a combined 58 points. I might have jumped the gun when I said a couple weeks ago that Dak and the 'Boys look poised to make some noise — this franchise continues to be nothing more than a star-studded pretender.
If James Cook can decimate Dallas, imagine what the elite duo of Mostert and Achane can do against this defense. Mike McCarthy and Dan Quinn had a 205-pound defender named Markquese Bell playing middle linebacker against the Buffalo, and they didn't pull him out even after Cook passed the 200-yard mark.
And you can show us all the DaRon Bland pick-six highlights you want — we're not convinced this unit has the chops to contain Hill and Waddle. You can't cheat when covering this downfield duo — they'll burn you quicker than your Mrs. can say "mistletoe." We're not projecting a South Beach bloodbath like we saw in Buffalo — but we're also not backing the 'Boys in a tough road game anytime soon.
Final score prediction: Dolphins 27, Cowboys 23
Buccaneers (-145) vs. Jaguars
Baker Mayfield is coming off a career game against the Packers at Lambeau Field, a 381-yard, four-touchdown performance that earned him a perfect 158.3 QB rating. More importantly, he led the Bucs to their third-straight victory to keep them atop the NFC South.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars, meanwhile, have fallen on their faces and lost three games in a row. They can't get out of their own way on either side of the ball. This three-game skid has seen the Jacksonville offense turn the ball over six times, while the Jags' D has allowed 29.3 points and 425.3 total yards per game. That's all kinds of bad.
Tampa enters this all-important home game with a half-game lead on the Saints and a one-game advantage over the Falcons. Todd Bowles' squad just won two road games in a row over Green Bay and Atlanta, and it hasn't suffered a loss at Raymond James since October 22 (Tampa is 3-1 SU as a home fave). Bet the Bucs to best the Jags this Christmas Eve.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Buccaneers 23, Jaguars 20
Other Week 16 moneylines we like: Colts (+125) at Falcons; Cardinals (+175) at Bears; Browns (-150) at Texans; Bengals (-150) at Steelers
Best NFL over/under bets Week 16
Commanders UNDER 17.5 at Jets (-135)
The Jets' offense has been a disaster of epic proportions since four offensive snaps into the season, but Robert Saleh's defense still plays with plenty of pride each week. With the mistake-prone Commanders visiting the Meadowlands this weekend, we expect Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, C.J. Mosley, Quinnen and Quincy Williams to have a field day.
Sam Howell, who leads the NFL in sacks taken and interceptions thrown, is the definition of a chucker. He leads the league in passing attempts, which isn't great when your career interception rate is 2.9 percent. Making matters worse for Washington, lead power back Brian Robinson Jr. will miss his second straight game with a hamstring injury.
With a 'Manders offensive line PFF ranks in the bottom 10 of the league — and no BRob to keep the pressure off Howell — we think this weekend could be a MetLife bloodbath. New York looked competent in its last home game against Houston, albeit against a depleted Texans offense. The Jets have allowed just 16.3 points per game over their past three despite facing the Dolphins last week, so we don't hold out much hope that Howell and company can beat that.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Jets 20, Commanders 16
Other Week 16 over/unders we like: Bills at Chargers: OVER 44 (-110); Bengals OVER 19.5 points at Steelers (-145); Broncos OVER 10.5 points vs. Patriots (+125)
Best NFL player prop bets Week 16
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Josh Allen, QB, Bills at Chargers — OVER 244.5 passing yards
Allen only needed 94 passing yards last week in Buffalo's 31-10 romp of the visiting Cowboys. That's because Bills interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady developed a game plan to ram James Cook down the throats of the 'Boys front-seven. This week should involve much more of Allen's arm as he heads to his home state of Cali to face the stumbling, bumbling Bolts.
The Chargers have surrendered 282.4 passing yards per game this season, just 0.5 yards per game fewer than the NFL-worst Buccaneers have allowed. Los Angeles just got absolutely destroyed by Aidan O'Connell and the Raiders without Josh Jacobs, so we fully expect Buffalo to stampede over this squad like Simba in the gorge.
The Bills' running game will still be a focal point, but Allen will also get plenty of opportunities to pad his own stats this week. Don't expect much mercy — Sean McDermott's team still has an outside shot of winning the AFC East if the chips fall in Buffalo's favor. Bet the Bills to buck the Bolts like an angry Blitzen.
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: How to play SuperDraft
David Njoku, TE, Browns at Texans — OVER 50.5 yards
Njoku has been playing like a man possessed since Joe Flacco became the Browns' starting QB, and we'll be riding the magic like Dasher and Dancer this Christmas weekend. Fifty yards almost feels like an insult to the veteran tight end — he has 195 yards and three TDs over the past two weeks alone!
Beyond that, Njoku has bested 50.5 in seven of Cleveland's past nine games, and he now faces a Texans defense that ranks among the four most generous to opposing tight ends (62.5 yards per game). We're all-in on this prop like my daughter is all-in on a Frozen motorcycle as the No. 1 item on her Christmas wish list.
Russell Wilson, QB, Broncos vs. Patriots — OVER 0.5 interceptions (+115 on SIA)
We have the Broncos winning this game, but we don't think it will be all that pretty. As bad as New England's offense has been this season, its defense has actually been remarkably good over the past couple months despite myriad injuries to key players. Bill Belichick's squad has 11 takeaways since Oct. 22, and the Pats rank among the eight stingiest defenses in the NFL in terms of total yards allowed.
Russ will try to force something by the end of this mile-high muck-fight, we just know it. He has thrown four interceptions over the past three games, against Chargers and Texans defenses that can't light a candle to Belichick's boys. We love plus odds here, as we think a Pats pick will be the tree-topper to a fun and lucrative Christmas Eve of betting.
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