In a playoff matchup not many could have predicted three months ago, the second-seeded Cowboys host the seventh-seeded Packers in the NFC Wild Card round on Sunday (4:30 p.m. ET, FOX). Today we will dive into this one from a betting standpoint, previewing the action and providing our final score prediction and best bets for what should be a solid first-round matchup.
Led by MVP candidate Dak Prescott, Offensive Player of the Year candidate CeeDee Lamb, and Defensive Player of the Year Micah Parsons, Dallas enjoyed a fantastic 12-5 season. Mike McCarthy's squad maintained the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL while ranking top five in total yards, scoring defense, and opposing yards allowed. This is the best Cowboys team we have seen since the Emmitt Smith era — it finished 8-0 at home with an average home scoring margin of +21.5. Now McCarthy gets a chance to eliminate his former squad in the first round.
Speaking of eras, Green Bay's transition from the Aaron Rodgers era has been much more seamless than anyone could have anticipated. Third-year QB Jordan Love led the Packers to the postseason in his first full season as a starter, despite myriad injuries to the skill positions and inconsistency on defense and on the offensive line. Love was the common denominator in Green Bay finishing the season on a 6-2 run — he averaged 268.8 passing yards and tossed 18 TDs with just one interception in that stretch.
Will Prescott, who is 2-4 in his postseason career and has just one playoff victory in over four years, lead the 'Boys to a big victory this weekend? Or, will Love march the red-hot Packers past Dallas in a surprise upset? Let's dive into this one, running down all the odds for Cowboys-Packers in Arlington and making our predictions for this Super Wild Card Weekend showdown.
Cowboys vs. Packers odds, spread, over/under
All odds courtesy of Sports Interaction, Canada's most trusted sportsbook. Bet on this weekend's NFL games now!
- Spread: Cowboys -7.5 (-110) | Packers +7.5 (-110)
- Total: OVER 50.5 (-110) | UNDER 50.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Cowboys -350 | Packers +275
You're looking at the second-largest spread of Wild Card Weekend (next to Bills -10 vs. Steelers), as well as the second-highest over/under total (behind Lions-Rams 51.5). Oddsmakers clearly like this one to be a barnburner, likely considering the Cowboys' whopping average of 37.4 points per home game during the regular season (Miami at 31.9 PPG was the only other team to exceed 27.3).
But Sports Interaction and other sportsbooks know that Green Bay also averaged the third-most points per away game this season (25.3), and that the OVER went 7-2 when the Packers played on the road. The Cowboys' home games, meanwhile, went over five games out of eight.
Dallas will undoubtedly be one of the more popular picks this weekend, and not just because they are "America's Team." Dak Prescott and the Cowboys have won a whopping 16 consecutive games at AT&T Stadium, and Micah Parsons' defense has averaged two takeaways per home game on the season.
Should you bet the Cowboys against the spread?
As strong as Dallas has been in Arlington this season, this spread seems a bit too high. Sure, the Cowboys went 6-2 ATS at home this season, but it's important to note some of the underwhelming teams they faced in those eight games: the Jets, Patriots, Giants, and Commanders are like J.V. squads compared to the Packers right now.
Not only that, Dallas barely beat the Lions in the 'Boys regular-season home finale, a game most football fans believe should have been a loss (Detroit's two-point conversion was reversed after the most controversial call of the season).
If not for Mike McCarthy's team putting a 38-10 beatdown on the Commanders in Week 18, more of us would be talking about how the Cowboys have struggled a bit with winning teams over the past month. They got destroyed 31-10 by the Bills in Orchard Park on Dec. 17. They eked out a two-point win on Christmas Eve over the Dolphins, who have their own troubles against winning teams. And then they got that gift one-point W over Detroit.
The only signature win for Dallas since Halloween was a 33-13 stomping of the Eagles, who have looked like a shell of the team we saw march to the Super Bowl last February. So, we can talk about all the numbers Dak and CeeDee have put up this season and how dominating the 'Boys have been at AT&T, but we're playing devil's advocate, looking at things from an objective lens, and giving the Pack some due credit.
The last two times oddsmakers gave Green Bay this many points — +8.5 in Detroit on Thanksgiving and +6 against the Super Bowl-champion Chiefs one week later — Matt LaFleur's squad won straight up both times. In fact, that seven-point victory in Detroit and eight-point stunner against Kansas City served as the two games that got a lot of people talking about the Packers being back on the map.
Most importantly for Green Bay, Aaron Jones is healthy right now. Dating back to Dec. 2018, the Packers have gone 22-1 when Jones gets 20-plus touches in a game. We don't see that record extending to 23-1 this weekend — Dallas has too much firepower and too much momentum to lose at home, and we don't see Dak getting out-dueled by Love — but we do think Green Bay has more than enough in the tank to cover the somewhat-disrespectful 7.5 points.
Our Pick: Packers +7.5
Should you bet the Cowboys vs. Packers OVER?
For this one, we can't imagine avoiding the OVER. The total has gone OVER in Green Bay's past five road games and five of the Cowboys' past eight home games this season. The UNDER did hit in the past two Dallas home games (vs. Detroit and Philadelphia), but oddsmakers set each of those totals extremely high (53.5 and 52.5, respectively).
Since we trust both of these squads' offenses to generate explosive plays — and we don't fully trust either team's secondary to contain the passing game — we're comfortable betting the OVER here. The Packers have scored 33 points in two of their past three road games, and just six weeks ago the Seahawks put 35 on Dallas at AT&T Stadium. We don't expect 30-plus out of Green Bay this weekend, but we could see Love getting the Pack to 25 with a healthy Aaron Jones.
One option you could also consider, though, is betting the OVER on the Cowboys' team total of 28.5 (-135). Dallas scored 30-plus points in seven of its eight home games this season, and actually cracked 40 three times since Halloween weekend. Hell, Dak and the 'Boys even put 38 on Bill Belichick's Patriots, who only surrendered 18.8 PPG across their other seven road contests.
Our Pick: OVER 50.5 (-110); Cowboys OVER 28.5 (-135)
Final score prediction: Cowboys 33, Packers 27 — Dallas advances to the NFC Divisional Round but Green Bay covers (+7.5) and the total sails OVER (50.5).
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