Super Wild Card Weekend comes with a surplus of storylines this year, perhaps none more intriguing than the Texans and Browns (4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, NBC). This AFC showdown pits Rookie of the Year favorite C.J. Stroud against Comeback Player of the Year candidate Joe Flacco, the latter of whom will turn 39 years old next week. Today we will provide a betting preview for this unlikely matchup and unveil our final score prediction and best moneyline, spread, and over/under bets.
Both of this game's starting QBs defied the odds this season. Despite losing stud rookie wideout Tank Dell in Week 13, Stroud just put a bow on one of the more remarkable rookie campaigns in NFL history. The second overall pick in the 2023 draft didn't just win the AFC South for a Texans squad that won three games last year — he put up 4,000 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, and just five interceptions in the process. His 8.2 yards per attempt ranks third-best all-time among rookies, and his 9.4 average depth of target ranks fourth.
Flacco also had a magnificent season, but the veteran QB was more about quality than quantity. After being signed by the Browns as an insurance policy for rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, the 16th-year signal-caller launched back into relevance when DTR suffered a Week 12 injury against the Broncos. Flacco proceeded to go 4-1 as Cleveland's starter, averaging a whopping 323.2 passing yards per game and tossing 13 TDs. His final four games of the season, in particular, were incredible — 340.5 passing yards per game, 11 TDs, and an average winning margin of 31 to 21.5.
This game might not be getting top billing, but it's one of the best games of Super Wild Card Weekend. Kevin Stefanski is the odds-on favorite to win Coach of the Year for the Browns (-950), but DeMeco Ryans has the next-shortest odds (+700). Cleveland rode Flacco and arguably the league's best defense to the best record of any non-division winner (11-6), while Houston flipped the script entirely from lost franchise to AFC South champion. Let's dive into this one, running down all the odds for Cowboys-Packers in Arlington and making our predictions for this Super Wild Card Weekend showdown.
So, who prevails from this AFC Wild Card tilt? Do the moneyline, spread, or over/under provide any betting value? Let's deep-dive this fascinating matchup of young vs. old and unveil the odds, stats, and best bets for Texans and Browns this Saturday afternoon.
Texans vs. Browns odds, spread, over/under
All odds courtesy of Sports Interaction, Canada's most trusted sportsbook. Bet on this weekend's NFL games now!
- Spread: Browns -2.5 (-120) | Texans +2.5 (-100)
- Total: OVER 44.5 (-110) | UNDER 44.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Browns -145 | Texans +120
The Browns sit as -2.5 road favorites, a pretty rare occurrence in the postseason. The Texans should thank their lucky stars that they won the AFC South, because Cleveland went 8-1 ATS at home and just 2-5-1 ATS on the road, but the Browns only failed to win/cover one game with Flacco under center — his first start against the Rams in L.A. on Dec. 3.
The total of 44.5 is noteworthy for a couple reasons. The OVER has gone 5-0 in Cleveland's past five road games, and Flacco has led Cleveland to an average of 31 points per game since taking over as starter. However, the OVER has gone just 3-6 in Houston's home games, and the Texans have averaged just 19.6 PPG since Tank Dell suffered his season-ending leg injury.
Should you bet the Browns against the spread?
We'll certainly be backing the Browns this weekend. Defensive Player of the Year candidate Myles Garrett and the Browns defense deserve just as much — if not more — credit for Cleveland's success in the home stretch of the regular season. They racked up 11 takeaways in their final four wins, while holding opponents to 203.5 passing yards and 81.3 rushing yards per game. C.J. Stroud will have a tough time prevailing over this defense with no Tank Dell and Devin Singletary as his top running back.
Flacco has been utterly fantastic, and we have no reason to believe he will suddenly slow down with an extra week of rest and plenty of time to prepare for this matchup. The Texans have ranked among the 10 most generous passing defenses in the NFL this season, and they allowed opponents to score between 24 and 37 points in five of their last 10 games. Who will contain Amari Cooper and David Njoku? How will Houston block Garrett and company? How can Stroud keep up with Nico Collins as his only truly dependable pass-catcher? Too many question marks for us — we're backing the road favorites to cover.
Our Pick: Browns -2.5 (-120)
Should you bet the Texans and Browns OVER?
We have this game projected at closer to 50 than 40, as the Browns have averaged 31 points per game with Flacco under center and their past five road games have all gone OVER. Houston has also averaged 24.6 PPG at home, where they allow opponents to average over 20 PPG.
Unless Cleveland's defense completely stifles Stroud and the Texans — not likely considering the Browns beat Houston 36-22 in Week 16 — we see this game as one of the easier OVER bets of the weekend. We also love the OVER on Cleveland's team total of 21.5 despite the juice (-155).
Our Pick: OVER 44.5 (-110); Browns OVER 21.5 (-155)
Final score prediction: Browns 27, Texans 23 — Cleveland wins and covers the spread (-2.5) and the score easily goes OVER the total (44.5).
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