A half-dozen weeks have passed in the 2023 NFL season, and it remains one of the more unpredictable campaigns in recent memory. With scoring down and injuries rampant, doing our due diligence with research before betting feels more important than ever. Our panel of SN Fantasy analysts has done just that with our Week 7 SuperDraft player prop picks, which we will share with you today.
The name of the game with prop betting — just like traditional betting, fantasy, and DFS — is value. So, every Friday my colleagues Vinnie Iyer, Nick Musial, Nick Brinkerhoff, and I scour the SuperDraft offerings to find you the over/under props that we feel yields the most value and gives you the greatest chance of winning.
Then my colleagues and I unveil a dozen or so of our favorite SuperDraft player props from the NFL's Sunday slate. The concept for this column is simple: the four of us each pick our three favorite over/under bets. We research the matchups, dive into the betting trends, and handpick the props that we deem to be solid value bets.
Along the way, we keep a weekly record of each of our successes and failures, and of course, reveal our updated season standings. Our motivations are two-fold: (1) beat our colleagues, and (2) help you beat the book. The more we win, the more money our readers make!
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: How to play SuperDraft
Musial has been on a tear the past two weeks, and yours truly bounced right back from my first losing week by going 2-1. I'm still mad that Sam Howell didn't attempt more passes against the Falcons, but I'm ready to move on. Take a look at the updated standings after Week 6 of our SN Bets SuperDraft Prop Contest:
| Expert | Week 6 | Overall |
| Sloan Piva | 2-1 | 13-6 |
| Vinnie Iyer | 1-2 | 8-10 |
| Nick Musial | 3-0 | 8-10 |
| Nick Brinkerhoff | 1-2 | 5-13 |
Poor Vinnie missed the Alvin Kamara OVER by 1.5 yards and fell to 1-2 on the week. Brinks' all-tight end strategy came back to bite him and landed him in the cellar with a 5-13 record on the season. When it rains, it pours!
One thing is for certain: our panel of experts is much better than our record suggests. So, let's move forward, lock in some winners, and get back on the right track. If you're not familiar with SuperDraft, you have to check it out! SD's Fantasy Props feature allows users to win 3X the amount wagered if their two-legged player prop parlay hits. The more legs added to the player prop parlay, the larger the potential payout becomes. But as you could probably guess, the longer the odds, the more difficult it gets to nail down a clean sweep. Research is imperative.
That's where we come in. Our panel of experts does the leg work, pitches our favorite props, and lets you do the rest. You can window-shop our recommendations as you please and bet as few or as many of our prop picks as you see fit. Our lucky number with player prop parlays seems to be two (3X payout), but sometimes we'll put a lower stake on a three-prop parlay (6X) or a lotto-ticket wager on an eight-legger (100X).
Let's get to it. Below we will detail our 12 favorite SuperDraft player props for this weekend's NFL games, with our highest-confidence picks listed first. Good luck, have fun, and enjoy Week 7!
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NFL Prop Picks Week 7: Our experts' favorite SuperDraft bets
Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks vs. Cardinals — OVER 71.5 rushing yards (Sloan Piva)
Walker has been one of the more dependable running backs in the NFL this season. Now he gets a divisional home game against a Cardinals defense that has surrendered the fourth-most rushing yards to RBs (112.8 per game). KW3 might hit this OVER by the end of the third quarter.
MORE WEEK 7 BETTING: ATS | Moneyline
Rashee Rice, WR, Chiefs vs. Chargers — OVER 35.5 receiving yards (Vinnie Iyer)
The Chiefs made a small move at wide receiver in bringing former starting slot Mecole Hardman back in the fold. They want to get Rice more involved on the outside and that allows them to do that with the snap share. The Chargers’ secondary is inconsistent in coverage and Patick Mahomes can make sure to exploit Rice’s matchup. There’s a good chance he can combine 50 yards with a good shot to score again.
Luke Musgrave, TE, Packers at Broncos — OVER 33.5 receiving yards (Nick Brinkerhoff)
Happy National Tight Ends Day to all who celebrate! And what better way to celebrate than with a newcomer to the NFL’s tight end ranks? We could’ve opted for a familiar face (more about him later), but you never forget your first, making Musgrave a prime target. The Packers march into Denver for a date with the Broncos, a team that’s experienced everything but a smooth ride. They also happen to be the league’s most generous defense against tight ends, a Swiss cheese unit allowing a league-worst 75.7 yards per game on average to opposing TEs.
Musgrave has seen some more involvement in recent weeks with at least seven targets in two of the last three. The lone exception, of course, came when he was knocked out of Week 4 to be evaluated for a concussion. We’ll trust that the Packers learned some things over their bye week and continue feeding their young stud to help us make some cheddar. For those that like alternate lines, ladder Musgrave up to 50 yards and sprinkle a little cash on him to score a touchdown, what would be the first of his career.
DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks vs. Cardinals — OVER 57.5 receiving yards (Nick Musial)
Despite hauling in just four-of-10 targets for 69 yards last week, Metcalf was extremely close to logging some chunk plays through the air. Metcalf saw a season-high 143 air yards with Geno Smith looking his way downfield. In a game we expect Seattle’s offense to thrive in, look for its WR1 to go OVER 57.5 receiving yards in another high-target day.
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Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens vs. Lions — OVER 52.5 receiving yards (Piva)
Andrews remains one of Lamar Jackson's most trusted pass-catchers, and the Lions rank as one of the best run-stuffing defenses in the NFL this season. In what we expect to be a very close game, look for Andrews to blow away any number up to 60.5 receiving yards. Detroit has surrendered 62.6 air yards per game to tight ends, and Andrews is the best receiving TE not named Travis Kelce.
Drake London, WR, Falcons at Buccaneers — OVER 46.5 receiving yards (Iyer)
London came through last week with career highs in targets, receptions and receiving yards vs. the Commanders. He gets another low number of which to take advantage vs. a Buccaneers secondary that struggles to stop the opponents’ No. 1 option. The Falcons should also be passing often against a team that stops the run with the possibility of a negative game script on the road. All that lines up with London delivering for a second consecutive week.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs vs. Chargers — OVER 73.5 receiving yards (Brinkerhoff)
Kelce hasn’t lived up to the absurd expectations that are typically set for him, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been good. After recording his first game with at least 100 yards this season, Kelce gets a familiar matchup against a divisional opponent. Kelce has earned a reputation for being a Chargers-killer of sorts, most recently scoring three touchdowns in their last meeting. With at least 100 yards or more in three of his last four against the Chargers, expect the Chiefs to go back to ol’ reliable with another high-volume day as they wait for their offense to start truly clicking. Whether Brandon Staley’s team is ready for it or not, Kelce is in for a big day at Arrowhead.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons @ Buccaneers — OVER 13.5 rushing attempts (Musial)
Although the Falcons played from behind for the majority of the second half in last week’s 24-16 loss to the Commanders, Robinson still found a way to log 13 carries. While the Falcons are short road underdogs against the Buccaneers this week, in what’s likely a closely-contested, one-score game, a neutral game script should result in Arthur Smith’s most dynamic offensive weapon seeing plenty of volume.
Marquise Brown, WR, Cardinals at Seahawks — OVER 4.5 receptions (Piva)
Brown has easily ranked as Josh Dobbs' top option in Arizona this season, with gaudy target totals of 11, 10, 10 over the past three weeks. During that span, he has 15 catches, which averages out to exactly how many catches we need from him this week in a tight divisional contest in Seattle. The Seahawks have allowed an average of 18 receptions per game to wideouts this season, so look for Hollywood to shine bright this Sunday.
Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens vs. Lions — UNDER 44.5 rushing yards (Iyer)
The Bus, Jerome Bettis, was from Detroit and won a Super Bowl in Detroit. The Gus will not far well against the Lions’ No. 1-ranked run defense, giving up on average fewer than 65 rushing yards per game. Edwards has been struggling to hit 40 yards every week and this matchup is brutal. This number is even too high.
Josh Palmer, WR, Chargers @ Chiefs — OVER 48.5 receiving yards (Brinkerhoff)
To round out Week 7, we’re heading to the opposite sideline in the Chargers-Chiefs game. Tight ends have been a theme thus far, but no holiday ever goes smoothly, which is why we have Palmer throwing a wrench into those plans. He’s resumed playing the role of Mike Williams, who is out for the year. It’s a familiar spot for Palmer, who did an admirable job last season too. With at least seven targets in three straight, he’s averaging 67.7 yards per game as the team’s WR2.
There will be plenty of star-gazing in K.C. both on and off the field, but that allows Palmer to fly under the radar enough to make this a hammer spot. Ladder his yards comfortably up to 60 and consider taking a flier on his anytime TD odds after a penalty ruined what would’ve been his second touchdown of the season last week.
Jahan Dotson, WR, Commanders @ Giants — OVER 33.5 receiving yards (Musial)
With Dotson’s stock seemingly at an all-time low following a one-target, zero-catch effort in Week 6, we’ll buy low on the Washington wideout to go OVER 33.5 receiving yards this week. Dotson’s still logging a high snap share, playing on at least 80 percent of the Commanders' snaps the past two weeks, but that’s yet to translate to consistent production. Against a Giants secondary that graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 26th-best coverage unit, we think Dotson has success against Wink Martindale’s man-heavy scheme.
