With five weeks of NFL action in the books, we can safely say that it's been a rollercoaster season for prop betting. We can't even count on two hands how many injuries have derailed what would have been prosperous betting weekends! All we can do is soldier on, continue to trust our process, and get back into the winning spirit with our Week 6 expert SuperDraft player prop picks.
Let's face it: if sweeping a player prop parlay each week was easy, everyone would be making millions in this market and fantastic sites like SuperDraft would cease to exist. It's hard work making money on props, especially when you must win multiple in order to cash. But we won't hang our heads over two tough weeks — we're going back to the drawing board with confidence that we can build our bankroll back up this weekend.
Every Friday, my SN Bets colleagues and I unveil a dozen or so of our favorite SuperDraft player props from the NFL's Sunday slate. The concept for the column is simple: the four of us each pick our three favorite over/under bets. We research the matchups, dive into the betting trends, and handpick the wagers that we estimate to yield the most value.
Along the way, we keep a weekly record of each of our successes and failures, and of course reveal our updated season standings. Our motivations are two-fold: (1) beat our colleagues, and (2) help you beat the book. The more we win, the more money our readers make!
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: How to play SuperDraft
What a difference a week makes. Two weeks ago, SN Bets expert Vinnie Iyer and yours truly combined to go 5-2 and moved up to 14-5 on the season. After Week 4 concluded, our two elder statesmen of the panel sit just 16-9. Take a look at the updated standings after Week 4 of our SN Bets SuperDraft Prop Contest:
| Expert | Week 5 | Overall |
| Sloan Piva | 1-2 | 11-5 |
| Vinnie Iyer | 1-2 | 7-8 |
| Nick Musial | 2-1 | 5-10 |
| Nick Brinkerhoff | 0-3 | 4-11 |
Two poor weeks in a row have taken me from 9-1 to 11-5. Vinnie came four Michael Pittman yards from a 2-1 week, but it was not meant to be. Nick Musial at least broke his part of the Curse of the Nicks, but Brinks continued to struggle (that's what he gets for picking a kicking prop!). Like Muse did last week, we have the utmost confidence in the youngest member of our squad rebounding from this difficult stretch. We've seen Brinks nail player prop parlays for thousands of dollars — his time is coming!
Our panel of experts is much better than our record suggests. So, let's move forward, lock in some winners, and get back on the right track. If you're not familiar with SuperDraft, you have to check it out! SD's Fantasy Props feature allows users to win 3X the amount wagered if their two-legged player prop parlay hits. The more legs added to the player prop parlay, the larger the potential payout becomes. But as you could probably guess, the longer the odds, the more difficult it gets to nail down a clean sweep. Research is imperative.
That's where we come in. Our panel of experts does the leg work, pitches our favorite props, and lets you do the rest. You can window-shop our recommendations as you please and bet as few or as many of our prop picks as you see fit. Our lucky number with player prop parlays seems to be two (3X payout), but sometimes we'll put a lower stake on a three-prop parlay (6X) or a lotto-ticket wager on an eight-legger (100X).
Let's get to it. Below we will detail our 12 favorite SuperDraft player props for this weekend's NFL games, with our highest-confidence picks listed first. Good luck, have fun, and enjoy Week 5!
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NFL Prop Picks Week 6: Our experts' favorite SuperDraft bets
Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins vs. Panthers — OVER 68.5 rushing yards (Sloan Piva)
With dynamic Dolphins rookie running back De'Von Achane on IR, Mostert reverts back to lead dog in the NFL's best rushing offense. But even if Achane didn't get hurt, we would probably still bet Mostert's OVER in this juicy home matchup against Carolina.
The Panthers have surrendered the third-most yards to RBs this season (128 per game) and the fifth-most yards per rush (4.9). And in the two Miami games in which Mostert carried the ball more than 10 times, he finished with rushing totals of 121 (@ Patriots) and 82 (vs. Broncos). He will obliterate this modest projection.
MORE WEEK 6 BETTING: ATS | Moneyline
Drake London, WR, Falcons vs. Commanders — OVER 44.5 receiving yards (Vinnie Iyer)
The Commanders have reshuffled their secondary to avoid a repeat of the disaster that happened in Week 5 against DJ Moore. However, their outside coverage struggles should continue with the size and hands of London. London has been revving up with Desmond Ridder, and the Falcons' offense tends to fare better at home. He should be able to rack up at least 50 yards and easily hit this low OVER.
Logan Thomas, TE, Commanders at Falcons — OVER 36.5 receiving yards (Nick Brinkerhoff)
We're celebrating National Tight Ends Day early, and I'm hoping the TE position will get me back in the winning column. Thomas seems like a great place to start — he’s gone over this number in three of four games, with the only under coming when he was knocked out of the game with a concussion against the Broncos in Denver.
Thomas remains one of the NFL's more underrated tight ends, in an offense that likes to utilize one with Eric Bienemy calling the shots. Thomas’s breakout game this season came in front of a national audience last week on Thursday Night Football, with a final stat line of nine catches for 77 yards and a touchdown. Facing a Falcons team that’s been shredded by tight ends in 2023 makes for the perfect opportunity for an encore performance.
Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens vs. Titans — OVER 5 receptions (Nick Musial)
Flowers has already penciled himself in as Lamar Jackson’s favorite pass-catcher, supplanting Mark Andrews as the team’s most-targeted wideout. Flowers has seen 10-plus targets in three of five games this season, and a juicy matchup against the Titans' pass-funnel defense could lead to the best receiving stat line of his young career. He should be able to create consistent separation on Titans slot corner Roger McCreary.
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Christian Kirk, WR, Jaguars vs. Colts — OVER 60.5 passing yards (Piva)
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars started the season throwing everything Calvin Ridley's way, but Kirk has been TLaw's favorite and most dependable receiver in the five weeks since. Between Weeks 2 and 5, Kirk has hauled in 29-of-40 targets for 326 yards and a TD. Sign us up! The Colts surrendered 259 passing yards to the Titans, and have allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game since the season began. Kirk and the Jags to the moon!
Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints at Texans — OVER 63.5 rushing yards (Iyer)
Kamara remains the lifeblood of New Orleans’ offense since returning. He was a receptions monster in his first game back in Week 4 and then went strong on the ground in the Saints' blowout win over the Patriots in Week 5. The Texans have been wilting against the run all season, even though their defense on the whole has improved a little under DeMeco Ryans. There’s no doubt the Saints will feed Kamara often with a banged-up Derek Carr struggling.
Cole Kmet, TE, Bears vs. Vikings — OVER 31.5 receiving yards (Brinkerhoff)
The weather in Chicago doesn’t look great...blah blah blah. I trust the forecast like I trust the scam artist calling me about my car’s extended warranty. Alright, they’re not that bad, but the point stands that weather tends to be overrated in general. And a forecast calling for showers isn’t enough to shy away from Kmet, who has a laughably low line at 31.5.
Despite all his faults, Justin Fields has been slinging the rock with ease as of late. You mean to tell me he can’t enjoy a third straight solid week at home against the Vikings defense? Perhaps we’ll have to add a timeshare onto that extended warranty. Regardless, Kmet has gone over this this line in four of five this season and he's one of Fields’ favorite targets. We’ll trust this offense to keep humming and dodge the raindrops in the Windy City.
KJ Osborn, WR, Vikings at Bears — OVER 39.5 receiving yards (Musial)
Alongside Jordan Addison, Osborn’s in line for a massive workload boost in the absence of Justin Jefferson. Despite not having one of the league’s best wideouts this weekend, the Vikings offense should still execute at an efficient clip on Sunday against an inconsistent Bears secondary. Chicago sports PFF’s fourth-lowest coverage grade (52.8), and Osborn has plenty of experience within this system. Don’t be surprised to see him lead Minnesota in receiving this week.
Sam Howell, QB, Commanders at Falcons — OVER 21.5 passing completions (Piva)
Howell looked pretty rough in the first half of the Commanders' loss to Chicago last Thursday night, but he picked it up in a major way in the second half. Take a look at his TNF stats in the first half, second half, and total game:
| Stat | First half | Second half | Full game |
| Passing Yds | 71 | 317 | 388 |
| Pass TDs | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Interceptions | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Sacks | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Rush Yds | 3 | 16 | 19 |
What a stark contrast! Ron Rivera's squad completely abandoned the run in the second half, and Howell damn near won the game for Washington despite trailing 27-3 at intermission. We should see more volume from Howell this weekend in a game that's projected to be close. Atlanta has allowed 21.7 completions over its past three games, and Howell now ranks third in the NFL with 131 completions (26.2 per game). Fire away, Yosemite Sam!
Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams vs. Cardinals — OVER 279.5 passing yards (Iyer)
Stafford has been throwing like crazy (and well) for Sean McVay in the Rams' new pass-happy attack. L.A. operates a similar passing offense to Joe Burrow and the Bengals, who destroyed the Cardinals in Week 5. Burrow went nuts in that game, turning high volume into 317 passing yards and three TDs. Against a weak secondary, there’s no reason to think Stafford won’t sling it all over the field this week to Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Tutu Atwell.
Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles at Jets — OVER 37.5 receiving yards (Brinkerhoff)
Death, taxes, and the Jets getting abused by tight ends seems like the three constants in life at this point. Goedert comes off his game of the season, and he should be primed to wreak havoc on Gang Green in Week 6. The Jets D has given up around 57.8 yards per game to tight ends, well above the number we’re targeting.
After a pedestrian start to the season, Goedert has gone over this number in two of Philly's past three games as Jalen Hurts has rediscovered No. 88 in the passing game. The soft spot in New York’s defense is over the middle, forcing their linebackers to make plays in coverage. We doubt Hurts, when he’s not “Brotherly Shoving,” will want to test D.J. Reed and Sauce Gardner too much. That translates to another big showing for Goedert.
Bryce Young, QB, Panthers at Dolphins — OVER 216.5 passing yards (Musial)
In a game that could follow a similar script to Carolina’s Week 5 matchup — a 42-24 loss to Detroit — we think Young goes OVER his passing yardage prop for a second consecutive week. He chucked it 41 times in Week 6 — and with a lackluster run game, coupled with his team being nearly two-touchdown underdogs, another high-volume passing day should be in store for the former No. 1 overall pick.
