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Best prop bets for Steelers-Bengals, Chargers-Bills
Odds courtesy for Sports Interaction
Although Pickens has been a frustrating own for fantasy owners, scoring fewer than 10 PPR points in nine of 14 games this season, he's in line for an improved receiving line against a subpar Bengals coverage unit. Through 15 weeks, the Bengals' pass defense ranks 31st in dropback success rate (49.4%), which should make life easier for Pittsburgh's newly appointed QB1, Mason Rudolph. With the Steelers' offense in dire need of a spark, we think Rudolph won't shy away from taking deep shots against a struggling pass defense, playing into Pickens' chances of totaling 44-plus receiving yards.
Despite playing alongside two QBs who've underwhelmed in the intermediate-to-deep areas of the field, Pickens still ranks 23rd among WRs in average depth of target (12.6 aDOT), totaling the 14th-most targets of 20-plus yards (19). One successful deep shot between Rudolph and Pickens puts him in an advantageous spot to reach this number, and with the Steelers likely passing at a high clip in a potential negative game script, we're buying low on Pittsburgh's best vertical threat.
Cook is fresh off a 25-carry, 179-yard, one-TD performance on the ground in Buffalo's 31-10 beatdown over Dallas, and while that has resulted in his rushing yardage prop reaching its highest total of the year, we still like the Bills' ascending RB1 to build off his Week 15 showing.
Cook's rushing yardage prop opened at a bit too inflated of a total of 74.5, which was immediately bet down to under 70, a number that's more in line with his projected usage in a favorable matchup against a subpar Chargers run defense. With the Bills priced as double-digit road favorites, expect another high-usage day for Cook in a game the Bills likely control throughout.
Rudolph is set to make his first start in over two years and couldn't have drawn a better matchup. Cincinnati's defense has struggled in coverage, allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game (254.1), while their defensive line has struggled to consistently get in their opponents' backfield, ranking 16th in pressure rate (21.9%).
A high number of clean pockets should help Rudolph's chances of eclipsing his passing yardage prop, especially if the Steelers are forced to air the football out at a higher clip in a game in which they're priced as two-point home underdogs. With the betting market not expecting much from Pittsburgh's third-string QB, we'll take a chance on his OVER at a deflated total.
Although we expect the Chargers' offense to pass at a high clip in their attempt to remain competitive with the Bills, we're not confident that Stick will attempt 34-plus passes. Much of that is attributed to the fact that Buffalo just dominated the time of possession in its home win over Dallas, possessing the football for 35:05.
The Bills' ability to generate lengthy drives seemingly hinders Stick's chances of hitting this OVER, a number he couldn't even hit last week in a game the Chargers trailed by multiple possessions from the first quarter on.
Ekeler is a prime fade candidate, as his role has significantly diminished, most recently playing just two more snaps (26) than fellow RB Isaiah Spiller. His rushing yardage prop of 36.5 already accounts for his decreased usage, but he's failed to reach this number in three of his past four games despite logging double-digit carries in three of those contests.
Look for another underwhelming night from the soon-to-be free agent.
Not many prop bettors are willing to take a chance on Gabe Davis' OVERs this weekend after back-to-back zero-catch days, but we're taking the plunge. While he's been targeted just three times over the past two weeks, Davis has still played on 70 percent of Buffalo's offensive snaps. Saturday night is a prime opportunity for Davis to regain his confidence, facing off against a Chargers pass defense allowing the third-most passing yards per game (261.4).
