We're just over 50 days away from the start of the NFL season, which is perfect timing for SuperDraft to announce its newest update. SuperDraft now offers NFL Fantasy Player Props, giving users a chance to pick the over/under on their favorite players' regular season stat totals for the 2023 NFL season.
For those not familiar with SuperDraft, users choose at least two of their favorite props together in a player prop parlay, and if both legs win, users win 3x of the amount wagered. The more legs users add to their player prop parlay, the larger their potential payout becomes if all goes to plan. We've sifted through the available player prop offerings for wide receivers, pinpointing the WR props we feel yield the most bang for your buck.
Below, we'll break down our favorite season-long WR props on SuperDraft. Users don't necessarily have to parlay each one of our picks together, as the long odds indicate going a perfect seven-for-seven will be a tall task. Instead, you could opt to make several shorter-legged parlays to increase your win probability.
Best season-long NFL player props: SuperDraft WR receiving yards and receiving TDs over/under
Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings - OVER 8.5 receiving TDs
Typically, it's hard to find wiggle room on props involving the league's premier players, but Jefferson's season-long receiving TDs over/under makes for a worthwhile betting opportunity on his OVER. Despite leading the league in receiving yards (1,809) and receptions (128) while putting together an Offensive Player of the Year campaign, Jefferson was fairly unfortunate to record just eight receiving TDs.
Jefferson saw the second-most red-zone targets (28), trailing only Travis Kelce (30), but Kelce's 30 red-zone targets resulted in the All-Pro tight end hauling in 12 TDs. Yes, the Vikings aren't expected to be as successful as they were last season with their regular-season win total sitting at 8.5 after going 13-4 in 2022, but Kevin O'Connell's offense ranked 10th in drop-back EPA while passing at the third-highest clip (64.38 percent). Minnesota's offense also reached the red zone 64 times in '22, trailing only the Chiefs (72) and Lions (68).
There's a chance Jefferson sees 30-plus red-zone targets now that Adam Thielen is in Carolina, as Thielen sat tied for fifth among WRs and TEs with 22 looks inside the 20. Look for the undisputed fantasy WR1 to post a receiving TD output more in line with his elite red-zone usage.
Treylon Burks, WR, Titans - UNDER 825.5 receiving yards
With DeAndre Hopkins inked as the team's No. 1 WR, it's hard to envision a situation where Burks totals north of 825.5 receiving yards. Tennessee's offense remains a run-heavy unit, ending 2022 passing on just 50.91 percent of downs (27th), and with Burks now slated as the team's WR2, we're not sure he garners a significant enough target share to go OVER this number.
Hopkins has a shot to post his first 1,000-receiving-yard season since '20, potentially even hauling in close to 100 receptions. Burks ended his rookie season on a positive note and was looking like an ADP steal before Hopkins signed, but now that he's positioned as the clear-cut WR2, we're tempering our expectations on the former first-round pick.
Christian Watson, WR, Packers - OVER 5.5 receiving TDs
Watson's torrid second half saw the rookie WR corral all seven of his receiving TDs from Weeks 10-13, landing him in a tie with Jahan Dotson as the rookie TD reception leader. Although Watson is inevitably due for some negative regression in the TD department this season, his O/U is already factoring that in with his total currently sitting at 5.5.
Sure, going from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love is undoubtedly a downgrade, but unlike 2022 when it took Watson time to find his footing in the Packers' offense, he enters '23 as the team's top receiving option. Watson's likely to log close to a 90-percent route participation, and his 15.2-percent target share in '22 is sure to increase toward the 20-percent mark. We'll see if he's able to one-up his seven-TD effort from last year, but at the very least, he's in a favorable spot to go OVER 5.5.
Jahan Dotson, WR, Commanders - OVER 4 receiving TDs
Like Watson, there's a good chance Dotson's receiving TD output declines in '23, but that's already been priced out in his season-long TD total. Dotson's in line to overtake fellow WR Curtis Samuel as the team's WR2, given the second-year wideout remains relatively healthy this season.
Dotson recorded seven receiving TDs in just 12 games last season, and while he scored 3.1 TDs over expected, exceeding four receiving TDs is well within reach for the former first-round pick. Despite his 5-11 frame, Dotson racked up the 19th-highest contested catch rate (50 percent), proving he can win on 50-50 balls. Dotson also owned the 14th-highest average depth of target (13.5 aDOT), and being a downfield threat only helps his chances of recording five-plus TDs in year two.
Isaiah Hodgins, WR, Giants - OVER 425.5 receiving yards
Along with being significantly undervalued in the fantasy space, going off the board as the overall WR72 in PPR leagues, Hodgins' season-long receiving yardage total of 425.5 yards looks a bit short. Hodgins totaled 392 yards in 10 games last season (one with Buffalo, nine with New York), but that total is a bit misleading considering it took Hodgins time to gain trust within the Giants' offense. After getting claimed off waivers, it took Hodgins four games as a Giant before logging a snap share of at least 80 percent (Week 13 vs. WAS).
From Week 13 on, Hodgins played at least 80 percent of snaps -- a number that SuperDraft users can expect the wideout to play as a trusted option in Brian Daboll's offense. While it didn't count toward his regular-season stats, Hodgins' eight-catch, 105-yard, one-TD effort in the Giants' wild-card win over the Vikings showed he's capable of showing up in the big moments. Sure, Minnesota's pass defense was putrid last season, but Hodgins clearly has a strong enough rapport with Daniel Jones to record north of 425.5 receiving yards in '23.
Michael Pittman, WR, Colts - UNDER 800.5 receiving yards
Despite Pittman going OVER 800.5 receiving yards in each of the past two seasons, we think he takes a step back this year. While projected QB1 Anthony Richardson has a bright future ahead of him, it's unlikely that the Colts' aerial attack will even be a top-20 unit.
Yes, it's hard to not take a step forward after a rough '22 season that saw Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger, and Nick Foles take snaps under center, but Richardson's accuracy issues (53.8 completion percentage at Florida) could lead to an underwhelming season from Indianapolis' WR1. Pittman will likely cede targets and receptions to second-year wideout Alec Pierce and rookie Josh Downs, hindering his chances of going OVER this total.
Kadarius Toney, WR, Chiefs - OVER 5.5 receiving TDs
With Kansas City looking to replace 135 vacated WR targets (sixth in NFL) following the departures of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman, Toney's in a favorable spot to produce in his first full season with the Chiefs. It's never easy betting on a Chiefs pass-catcher not named Travis Kelce in the TD department, but we're expecting last season's trade deadline acquisition to emerge as Kansas City's No. 2 red-zone threat.
The Chiefs' uber-efficient offense led the league with 72 red-zone trips in 2022 -- a number that likely won't fluctuate this season. Since Toney was still acclimating to the Chiefs' offense, he never played on more than 43 percent of offensive snaps last season. Given his role is likely to increase, so will his snap share and TD output.
