The final week of the NFL season is upon us, after a six-day stretch that felt like a month. The great news: Damar Hamlin is no longer intubated, he's talking and alert, and he's absolutely crushing his recovery process every single day. We are so relieved to see the young Bills safety on the up and up. Now we feel better about writing about our favorite props for all 16 games — it feels acceptable to go back to focusing on the actual contests in the NFL, the majority of which will be surrounded by legitimate playoff implications.
We have been loving the player props market all season. They are not only fun to follow while watching games, but they also seem to produce fewer "bad beats" than standard moneyline, spread, and over/under bets. You don't always have to hitch your wagon to an entire team or put all your proverbial chips on a certain final score. In the world of props, you can simply bet on one player to produce — or fail to produce — at a certain level.
Every Thursday, we scour BetMGM to pinpoint one potentially-lucrative prop for each NFL game of the upcoming slate. It could be a player or team prop that we find the most interesting, most promising, or both. These prop wagers can involve offense, defense, special teams, or general scoring, but they all offer bettors distinct value based on stats and trends.
We've cashed on dozens of solid prop bets in the past few weeks, many of which yielded plus-odds. That's great, but we want to take a couple double-digit win weeks into the playoffs.
Here are our favorite Week 18 props for every game of what should be another exciting week of NFL action. Good luck!
Best NFL prop bets for every Week 18 game
All prop bets are from BetMGM and Caesars.
Chiefs at Raiders: Patrick Mahomes OVER 322.5 passing yards (-120 on BetMGM)
Mahomes needs 400 yards to set the all-time season-long passing yards record, he's going for his second MVP, and he's trying to lock Kansas City into the No. 1 seed. Yeah, I'm all over this one. The Raiders have surrendered the fourth-most passing yards this season, and Jarrett Stidham will have trouble holding onto the ball long enough to cool down a red-hot, fired-up Mahomes. He may not reach 400, but 321 seems like an easy mark to hit. He has recorded 320-plus in nine of the Chiefs' past 11 games, with a 424 and a 446 mixed in there.
Jaguars vs. Titans: Trevor Lawrence OVER 268.5 passing yards (-115 on BetMGM) or OVER 1.5 passing TDs (-155 on BetMGM)
Another couple props I love, TLaw should be able to put a nice cherry on top of a fruitful second season with a solid yardage and TD showing. You can pick whichever one you like better, but we have confidence in both hitting. The Titans have surrendered the most passing yards in the NFL this season as well as the 11th-most passing TDs. With the AFC South on the line, we like Lawrence to get it done and seal Doug Pederson's fate as the NFL Coach of the Year (sorry, Sirianni squad and Shanny-fans).
Buccaneers at Falcons: Tampa Bay OVER 19 total points (+100 on Caesars)
No real player props for this one, as the resounding thought around this game is that Todd Bowles will rest his starters with the Bucs already locked into place as NFC South champs. Well, we don't need much Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, or Chris Godwin to get a big lead over Atlanta's defense — it's a bottom-12 unit basically across the board. And while the Falcons have limited five of their past six opponents to under 20 points, take a look at the QBs they were going against those weeks: David Blough, Tyler Huntley, Kenny Pickett, Taylor Heinicke, and Justin Fields. None of those guys spark fear in a secondary's eyes, at least not with their arms. The GOAT comes in, puts up two or three TDs, and lets Blaine Gabbert take care of the rest.
Bills vs. Patriots: Josh Allen OVER 1.5 passing TDs (-150 on BetMGM)
We are over-the-moon for Damar Hamlin and his loved ones after hearing multiple good status updates on the young man's health. Now we get to see Buffalo honor him at home on Sunday, in what will surely be one of the most special NFL moments in some time. The Bills will be fired up, gunning for a top-two seed, and looking at good weather (cold, but sunny) in Orchard Park. While the Patriots have been solid defensively all season, Josh Allen remains one of their main sources of Kryptonite. He had two passing TDs when these squads last met five weeks ago, and he's finished with at least two in four of Buffalo's past five games. Book it!
Vikings at Bears: Dalvin Cook anytime TD scorer (-126 on Caesars)
The Bears got destroyed by the two-headed Lions backfield of Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift last week, as the RBs combined for 274 scrimmage yards and three total TDs. Cook has enjoyed a solid season, and I like him to actually score two TDs to finish with a round 10 on the campaign. With Justin Fields sidelined for the final week of the season, this one will be all Minnesota — so don't expect 50 pass attempts from Kirk Cousins. Cook will be cooking, and sprinkling in a little Alexander Mattison.
WEEK 18 DFS: Best stacks | Best values
Bengals vs. Ravens: Ja'Marr Chase OVER 6.5 receptions (-110 on BetMGM)
I can't help but think Chase's tandem wideout Tee Higgins has some mild PTSD after Damar Hamlin tackled him and nearly died on the field. Even with the flurry of good news flowing in late in the work week, how can anyone in Tee's position be completely okay right now? Chase, the 2021 Rookie of the Year and one of the more dominating receivers in the NFL, should be able to step it up against a Baltimore secondary that still struggles against strong passing units. Roquan Smith may have improved John Harbaugh's front-seven, but the Ravens have still allowed the fifth-most air yards and sixth-most receptions to wideouts this season. Go Chase that paper.
Colts vs. Texans: Zack Moss anytime TD scorer (-115 on BetMGM)
This one serves as one of the only games with little to no meaning this weekend, so it's a lame game for player props. We may not even cut away to this contest four times all day on RedZone! But Houston stinking at defending the run is about as constant as my daughter's hunger for pepperoni, so we'll bet that Moss finds pay dirt this Sunday to cap off a nice little second half of the season. The Texans have allowed an NFL-high 21 rushing TDs to RBs this season (three more than any other franchise), and a total of 24 TDs to the position. Moss has 225 scrimmage yards over the past three weeks, but still no TD as a Colt. That changes this week. The rolling Sloan gathers his Moss prop.
Dolphins vs. Jets: Tyreek Hill UNDER 66.5 receiving yards (-115 on BetMGM)
This game looks like a crap-show waiting to happen with Skylar Thompson set to face off against Joe Flacco. Weird! We love Hill, and understand why many had him as an MVP candidate for much of the season. But the Jets are even more tough than the Patriots, who limited Cheetah to 55 receiving yards last week. New York leads the NFL in air yards allowed to wideouts! With Thompson under center, under 68 receiving yards seems like a belated Christmas gift.
Saints vs. Panthers: Taysom Hill anytime TD scorer (+150 on BetMGM)
Not much rides on this game, and who knows how much Alvin Kamara we will even see. Hill always seems to inflict the most damage when he's not really even needed, so we'll bet on him pushing his way into the end zone at some point. In reality, we'll likely stay away from this game entirely.
Browns at Steelers: Deshaun Watson OVER 1.5 passing TDs (+135 on BetMGM)
The 7-9 Browns have little to play for at this point, but they can play spoilers against their arch-nemeses this weekend. And Watson will surely take the time to try to build chemistry with his pass-catchers before a long offseason. He had three passing TDs last weekend against Washington, his first multi-score effort since coming off suspension in Week 13. We'll bet he records another two to close out the year, against a Steelers secondary that has served up the fourth-most passing TDs this season.
Chargers at Broncos: L.A. OVER 20 total points (+108 on Caesars)
Justin Herbert and the Chargers have been locked in ever since Keenan Allen and Mike Williams returned to play, and L.A. will be extremely motivated to get the W this week to lock up the fifth seed. The difference between No. 5 and No. 6? No. 6 will play either Cincy, Buffalo, or Kansas City. No. 5 will play the Titans or Jaguars. Yeah, the Bolts are going to light it up this weekend, regardless of the Broncos' solid defense.
Eagles at Giants: A.J. Brown anytime TD scorer (-101 on Caesars)
Brown broke out of his mini-slump last weekend, taking a long touchdown to the house. With playoff seeding on the line, expect him to find the end zone again this week against a Giants secondary that has allowed 1.7 pass TDs per game over the past three weeks.
WEEK 18 DFS LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuel
49ers vs. Cardinals: San Francisco OVER 3.5 total TDs (+152 on Caesars)
This one may seem like a bit of a reach, but the juice feels worth the squeeze. The Cardinals have been utterly abysmal this season, Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are both hurt, Kliff Kingsbury looks like he's about to be fired, and Arizona's defense looks tired. San Fran put up 38 the last time these squads met in Scottsdale. If the Niners want, they can duplicate that effort this week in Santa Clara...Purdy easily.
Rams at Seahawks: Cam Akers anytime TD scorer (+111 on BetMGM)
Akers, who started the season in Sean McVay's doghouse, has been one of the sole bright spots in L.A.'s otherwise-abysmal second half of the season. The third-year back somehow has seven TDs on the season, and we're betting he will finish with 8-10 considering how awful Seattle has been against the run this season. The Seahawks have allowed the fifth-most ground TDs and sixth-most total rushing yards to RBs — go with Akers in this game or go with nothing at all.
Cowboys at Commanders: Dallas OVER 25 total points (+102 on Caesars)
No player props for this one yet, but we're betting on Dallas lighting it up against its division rival in Washington to close out the regular season. The Cowboys have looked like a legitimate Super Bowl contender in the second half of this season, and Philadelphia's injury issues play right into that narrative. Dak Prescott and company have won six of their past seven games, including a 40-34 slugfest with Philly a few weeks ago. Plus odds for 26 points might as well be gift-wrapped — this is the No. 2 scoring offense in the NFL going against a division rival that has allowed 61 total points over the past two weeks!
Packers vs. Lions: Aaron Rodgers OVER 1.5 passing TDs (-125 on BetMGM)
Last but certainly not least, one of the games of week closes out the regular season on Sunday Night Football. And Aaron Rodgers, the best regular-season QB of the past decade, gets to go against one of his lifelong punching bags, the Detroit Lions and their still-horrible secondary, at Lambeau Field. Talk about setting the stage for some dramatics! We like the four-time MVP to win and get into the playoffs, delivering another brutal blow to a Detroit fanbase that comes to expect heartbreak year in and year out.
