As we enter Week 11, only eight weeks stand between now and the NFL playoffs. As legendary Red Sox announcer Joe Castiglione would say, "Can you believe it?" It has been a wildly unpredictable season in many ways, with scoring down and a plethora of teams taking bettors by surprise. Such volatility has led many to the prop betting market, which is why we discuss our favorite player props and game props every Thursday.
Player props, game props, and same-game parlays have become massively popular over the past few years. Props are not only more fun to follow while watching a game, but they also seem to produce fewer "bad beats" than standard moneyline, spread, and over/under bets. You don't always have to hitch your wagon to an entire team or put your proverbial chips on a certain final score. In the world of props, you can simply bet on one player to produce (or fail to produce) at a certain level.
Every Thursday, we scour BetMGM, Sports Interaction, and Caesars to pinpoint one potentially lucrative prop for each NFL game of the upcoming slate. It could be a player or team prop that we find the most interesting, most promising, or both. These prop wagers can involve offense, defense, special teams, or general scoring, but they all offer bettors distinct value based on stats and trends.
Let’s check out our favorite Week 11 props for every game and make some money in what should be another fun week of NFL action.
MORE WEEK 11 NFL BETTING: Odds, lines, spreads | Best bets
Best NFL prop bets for every Week 11 game
All prop bets are from BetMGM and Caesars.
Packers vs. Titans: Aaron Rodgers OVER 22.5 pass completions (-130 on BetMGM)
Regular readers know I've been picking on Tennessee's secondary all season, but that's just because QBs have been picking on it all season, too! While the Titans' run defense has been one of the top two in the NFL, their passing defense has been abysmal. No team has allowed more passes (26.7) or completions (40.5) per game than Tennessee. The Titans have also surrendered the second-most air yards and fifth-most passing TDs. Rodgers looked like he had his groove back last weekend in a huge win over Dallas -- and he's averaged exactly 22.5 attempts per game this season -- so we like him to throw a bunch and pad his stats on Thursday.
Ravens vs. Panthers: Lamar Jackson OVER 1.5 passing TDs (-108 on Caesars)
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens needed their Week 10 bye in a major way. The injury bug had reared its ugly head as it seemingly always does in Baltimore, with tight end Mark Andrews (shoulder, knee) battling multiple injuries, top running backs JK Dobbins (knee) and Gus Edwards (hamstring) on the shelf, and wideout Rashod Bateman (foot) on IR. Jackson was also sacked three times in each of his past three games, so, yeah, the bye was crucial. Now that Andrews has returned to practice and both he and Edwards look poised to play this weekend, we're betting Jackson records multiple TD passes this weekend, especially when you factor in that Carolina has allowed two TDs per game over its past three.
Saints vs. Rams: Alvin Kamara OVER 54.5 rushing yards (+100 on Caesars)
The Saints have struggled with Andy Dalton under center, quietly losing four of their past five games. Kamara has just 56 rushing yards total over the past two weeks, which is never a good sign. But the Rams have struggled even more, losing five of their past six and losing Cooper Kupp to a high-ankle sprain. I'm guessing Kamara gets it going at home against a dejected L.A. squad that has allowed 78 rushing yards or more in five of six games. Kamara has bested 59 rushing yards four times this season and should be able to make it five this weekend.
WEEK 11 NFL PICKS: Against the Spread | Moneyline
Patriots vs. Jets: Rhamondre Stevenson first TD scorer (+350) or anytime TD scorer (-128, both on Caesars)
We tend to go with "anytime TD scorer" over "first TD scorer," as it feels like much less of a game of Russian Roulette. Suffice it to say, we like Rhamondre at home this weekend against the Pats' division rivals. The second-year back has scored TDs in three of New England's past four games and has four TDs in that span. He's touching the football 18-25 times per game at this point, as Bill Belichick has opted for a run-heavy scheme to limit second-year QB Mac Jones' mistakes. The Jets have allowed 10 rushing TDs in nine games, and we expect that number to rise to at least 11 this Sunday.
WEEK 11 DFS: Best stacks | Best values
Commanders at Texans: Brian Robinson Jr. OVER 63.5 rushing yards (-110 on BetMGM)
The Texans have been the most generous defense to run games this season so offenses barely even throw against them. Robinson has also seen insane volume over the past couple of weeks. The rookie has 41 touches in two games, including a whopping 26 carries for 86 yards in a win over NFC-leading Philly on Monday. Don't expect Ron Rivera to suddenly ditch the run-first scheme that has produced four Commanders' wins in five weeks. B-Rob is gonna eat this Sunday.
WEEK 11 DFS LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuel
Lions at Giants: Detroit to score most TDs (+140 on Caesars)
I don't know why I like this prop — it's mostly because there are no player props listed for this game yet, and I'm too lame to pick the Lions to win this one straight up. It just feels like the Giants have been very lucky to go 7-2. They average 1.2 TDs per game, seventh-fewest in the NFL, while Detroit averages 3.0 per game and just scored four TDs last weekend. Even if New York does win this game, it could be thanks to the leg of kicker Graham Gano. The Giants have kicked the third-most field goals in the NFL this season.
Eagles at Colts: Philadelphia leads half-time/full-time (-141 on Sports Interaction)
The Eagles are an easy choice for this game, coming off their first loss and facing a squad with a head coach who has one week of NFL coaching experience. Still, we don't love having to bet a seven-point spread, and we won't touch a -287 moneyline with a 10-foot pole. Picking Philly to lead at halftime and at the end of the game is a good way of lowering the juice while not really lowering our odds of winning. The Eagles will lead Matt Ryan and the inferior Colts from start to finish, we're pretty confident of that.
Bears at Falcons: Chicago OVER 23 (-118 on Sports Interaction)
The Bears have unlocked a cheat code by utilizing Justin Fields' running ability, opening up the field and moving the chains with an ease Chicago hasn't enjoyed in years. Of course, this hasn't exactly translated to victories, as the Bears have lost three straight games. But they are scoring a ton, posting at least 29 points in each of their past four contests. Now they draw a Falcons team that has allowed 25 points per game this season and surrendered at least 34 points twice in the past month. Pound Chi-town's OVER here.
Browns at Bills: Cleveland OVER 21.5 (-118 on Sports Interaction)
UPDATE: This game has been moved to Detroit, so we like Cleveland's OVER even more.
Between Josh Allen's elbow injury and consecutive losses to the Jets and Vikings, the Bills have fallen on tough times. The wildest part of this funk is that Buffalo has allowed 529 rushing yards over its past three games. That's 176.3 ground yards per game, the fifth-most allowed in the NFL in that span! Now the Bills must face Nick Chubb and a top-five rushing offense in a blizzard? Things might go from bad to worse for this Buffalo squad. Cleveland might actually mess around and win this game. At the very least, it should be able to clear 18 points for the eighth time this season.
Broncos vs. Raiders: Greg Dulcich to score a TD (+200 on Caesars)
We hate betting on anything related to Russell Wilson passing TDs, but we will make the exception against the Raiders. Vegas has been the most generous passing defense in the NFL and has allowed six receiving TDs to tight ends this season. Thus, we have the man who could be Weird Al's stunt double finding pay-dirt in a bounce-back game.
Bengals at Steelers: Spread/Total: Cincinnati +3.5 + OVER 40.5 total points scored (+165 on BetMGM)
BetMGM features these cool mini-parlays in which you can combine one team's spread with one total for the game. We love Cincy to win this divisional tilt, and we project this game to reach 42-45 points, so getting plus-odds here is fantastic. The Bengals have scored 25.3 points per game this season (sixth most), and 30.0 over the past three games (fifth). Pittsburgh has averaged 15.6 on the year (third fewest), and just 14.3 over its past three (fourth fewest). The Bengals have allowed 20.6 points per game, while Pittsburgh has allowed 23. Seems like easy money to us.
Cowboys at Vikings: Dallas OVER 26 points (+102 on Caesars)
We have the Cowboys prevailing here, so naturally, we went to the Caesars alternate spread toggle line to increase our payout. BetQL projects Dallas to win 25-22, and we have Dallas winning closer to 28-24. Minnesota has allowed 26-plus points in two of its past three games, and this is the fourth above-average passing offense it will face in a little over a month. Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and company will be busy in the passing game, while Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott should eat plenty. The Vikings have allowed 312 rushing yards over the past two weeks, and they have surrendered 25 or more first downs in two of their past three games. Take the 'Boys with the high score and win if it's a shootout even if Dallas loses.
Chiefs at Chargers: Shortest TD UNDER 1.5 yards (-165 on BetMGM)
We wish these sportsbooks would release player props for the Sunday Night Football games earlier — we're three days away and we want to place bets here, people! Alas, we will go with a cool game prop. With both Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs and Justin Herbert's Chargers operating pass-heavy offenses, we like the odds of at least one pass interference around the end zone. That will give Austin Ekeler, Isiah Pacheco, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, or either of the QBs a great chance at a one-yard score. We have also seen Travis Kelce score a ton of goal-line TDs in prime time throughout his career, so this feels like a very attainable bet.
49ers vs. Cardinals (in Mexico City): San Francisco OVER 25 total points (-142 on Caesars)
We expect the 49ers to dominate the Mexico City game, as they have been cooking with gas since acquiring Christian McCaffrey and getting wideout Deebo Samuel back from IR. San Francisco has averaged 25.3 points per game since CMC touched down in the Bay Area, and Arizona has allowed at least 31 points in three of its past four games. Smash, pound, or slam (whichever you prefer) the Niners' OVER to finish out a strong week of prop betting.
