We're less than 50 days away from the start of the NFL season, which is a perfect time for SuperDraft to announce its newest update! SuperDraft now offers NFL Fantasy Player Props, giving users a chance to pick the over/under on their favorite players' regular season stat totals for the 2023 NFL season.
For those unfamiliar with SuperDraft, users choose at least two of their favorite props together in a player prop parlay, and if both legs hit, users win 3x of the amount wagered. The more legs users add to their player prop parlay, the larger their potential payout becomes if all goes to plan. We've sifted through the available player prop offerings for tight ends, pinpointing the TE props we feel yield the most bang for your buck.
Below, we'll break down our favorite season-long TE props on SuperDraft. Users don't necessarily have to parlay each of our picks together, as the long odds indicate that going a perfect six-for-six will be a tall task. Instead, you could make several shorter-legged parlays to increase your win probability.
Best season-long NFL player props: SuperDraft TE receiving yards and receiving TDs over/under
Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens - OVER 800.5 receiving yards
Andrews' season-long receiving yards prop of 800.5 yards is beyond attainable for the Ravens' de-facto No. 1 WR. Last season, the Ravens threw just 49.82 percent of the time under ex-offensive coordinator Greg Roman (30th), but Andrews still found a way to record 847 receiving yards in 15 games. Now that new O.C. Todd Monken is running the show, look for the Ravens to sit close to the league average in pass rate, boosting Andrews' chances of going OVER 800.5 receiving yards.
Andrews couldn't quite replicate his 1,361-yard season from 2021, but he's still among the elites at the tight end position. He's essentially viewed as a slot receiver in Baltimore's offense, running a route on 91.5 percent of the Ravens' pass plays last season (first among TEs). Andrews led all TEs in air yards (1,109) and target share (29 percent), so as long as he can avoid a multi-week injury stint, he likely goes OVER 800.5 receiving yards for a third consecutive season.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons - UNDER 775.5 receiving yards
Pitts receiving yards total of 775.5 is a bit inflated ahead of his third season. Although Pitts garnered the second-highest target share among TEs in '22 (27.3 percent), his 59.3-percent catchable target rate is a glaring concern in his prospects of going OVER this total. The jury's still out on Desmond Ridder, given he played in just four games as a rookie, but Ridder did struggle in the accuracy department last season.
Albeit a small sample, Ridder completed only 25 percent of his deep ball attempts while recording a 46.2 completion percentage under pressure. Couple that with Atlanta's run-heavy philosophy (44.71 percent pass rate in '22) with the fact Pitts' route participation sat at just 76.1 percent (13th among TEs), and Pitts likely fails to go OVER 775.5 receiving yards for a second-straight year.
Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles - OVER 645.5 receiving yards
Goedert's as consistent as it gets at the tight end position, and although he doesn't see many deep targets (6.2 aDOT in '22), he's in line to record north of 645.5 receiving yards for a third-straight season. Despite playing in just 12 games last season, Goedert racked up 702 receiving yards on 55 receptions.
Unlike Pitts, most of Goedert's targets were deemed catchable (94.1-percent catchable target rate). Jalen Hurts' consistency as a passer helps Goedert's chances of going OVER 645.5 receiving yards. It also doesn't hurt that Goedert's a YAC monster, totaling 425 yards after the catch (third among TEs). Take a chance on Philly's TE1 to produce another respectable season-long receiving yardage output.
David Njoku, TE, Browns - OVER 3.5 receiving TDs
Njoku was a red-zone beast last season, seeing the second-most red-zone targets among TEs (20). Despite his high red-zone usage, those 20 targets constituted just four receiving TDs. Njoku was a bit unlucky in the TD department, expected to score 4.9 TDs, and with the Browns' aerial attack likely taking a step forward in Deshaun Watson's first full season at QB, Njoku's in a solid position to score four-plus TDs.
There's also a chance we see the Browns employ a more pass-heavy approach in the red zone after ending last season ranking in the bottom half of the league in red-zone pass rate. If that comes to fruition, Njoku's likely to eclipse four receiving TDs with ease.
Dawson Knox, TE, Bills - UNDER 4.5 receiving TDs
Despite Knox going OVER 4.5 receiving TDs the past two seasons, we think the Bills TE ends the regular season with fewer than five receiving scores. While he's still positioned as the team's TE1 ahead of rookie Dalton Kincaid, Kincaid's reliable hands and route-running abilities likely lead to the Utah product lowering Knox's overall ceiling.
Knox ended 2022 scoring 1.8 more TDs more than expected, seeing just nine red-zone targets. He was fairly fortunate to record six TDs. With plenty of mouths to feed in Buffalo's high-powered offense, bet Knox to go UNDER 4.5 scores.
Dalton Schultz, TE, Texans - OVER 500.5 receiving yards
Although Schultz is no longer a part of the Cowboys, there's a chance his target share increases now that he's one of C.J. Stroud's top receiving options. Schultz has gone OVER 500.5 receiving yards in three straight seasons, and with Houston not expected to do much this year (over/under wins set at 6.5), a high pass rate in negative game scripts only helps his chances of going OVER 500.5 yards.
