While running back might not be the most fairly compensated position in the NFL, investing in stud RBs on the season-long prop betting market can be quite lucrative. Now, SuperDraft has rolled out its NFL Fantasy Player Props, providing users with a chance to pick the over/under on their favorite players' regular season stat totals for the 2023 season.
Do certain RBs stand out in your mind as candidates for positive or negative regression? Will a particular offseason acquisition hurt an RB1's total production? Do past injuries make certain guys OVER values or UNDER fades? These are the types of questions we will be asking as we assess SD's season-long RB props.
For those unfamiliar with SuperDraft, users choose at least two of their favorite props together in a player prop parlay, and if both legs hit, users win 3x of the amount wagered. The more legs users add to their player prop parlay, the larger their potential payout becomes if all goes to plan. We've sifted through the available player prop offerings for tight ends, pinpointing the RB props we feel yield the most bang for your buck.
MORE SUPERDRAFT SEASON-LONG PROPS: QB | WR | TE
Below, we'll break down our favorite season-long RB props on SuperDraft. Users don't necessarily have to parlay each of our picks together, as the long odds indicate that going a perfect six-for-six will be a tall task. Instead, you could make several shorter-legged parlays to increase your win probability.
Best season-long NFL player props: SuperDraft RB rushing yards and rushing TDs over/unders
Derrick Henry, RB, Titans — OVER 1,225.5 rushing yards
The first one, as always, is the easiest call. King Henry has ruled the RB position since 2019, leading the NFL in rushing yards and yards per game in that span. He didn't finish with the most ground yards in either of the past two seasons, but Henry still averaged over 103 rushing yards per game.
So, what are we doing? Are we expecting the two-time rushing king, who just finished a season with 349 carries and 1,500-plus yards, to suddenly regress to 1,200 yards? That would be a plummet from 96 yards per game to 72. Yeah, we'll smash the OVER here and cross our fingers that King Henry stays healthy and returns to his rightful throne.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders — OVER 1,075.5 rushing yards
Here's another easy OVER for us. As noted in the Henry section, Jacobs won the rushing title last season with a whopping 1,653 ground yards. The Raiders' offense arguably got better this offseason with the additions of Jimmy Garoppolo and Jakobi Meyers, so we like Jacobs to pick up where he left off.
Even if the fifth-year vet takes a big step back, say, from 97.2 rushing yards per game to 60, he would still beat this projection by 29.5 yards. We're not sure why we're getting such a discount on Jacobs (maybe SuperDraft is worried about injuries?). He just played 17 games and totaled 340 carries. Perhaps they think other RBs in Vegas will steal touches from him? Zamir White, Ameer Abdullah, and Brandon Bolden combined for 38 carries last season. McDaniels is loyal to his RB1s and Jacobs looks healthy — pound the OVER.
Nick Chubb, RB, Browns — UNDER 8.5 rushing TDs
Now here's an UNDER we can get behind. Chubb looked awesome in the first half of the 2022 season. Hell, he had seven rushing TDs and nearly 600 ground yards in his first five games! However, his production fell off a cliff once Deshaun Watson debuted after his 11-game suspension.
Across those final six games, Chubb totaled just 486 yards (81 ypg). Even worse, he had ZERO touchdowns in that span. Delve deeper and you'll realize that Watson has never had an RB1 finish with more than six rushing TDs in a season. That's a five-star betting trend, y'all. Now slam that UNDER like Watson slams RB's values.
Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants — OVER 975.5 rushing yards
Barkley bet on himself by accepting a one-year deal with the Giants, making him eligible to test free agency in 2024. He's gonna be gunning for the bag, and the G-men could be playoff contenders again this season. They're entering their second full season under Brian Daboll, coming off a nine-win campaign, and they added stud tight end Darren Waller.
Of course, the Giants have one of the most porous offensive lines in the NFL, but it's arguably much worse at pass blocking than run blocking. Barkley finished with 1,310 rushing yards last season, and he's as motivated as ever coming into the 2023 campaign. You would have to be certifiably insane to bet the UNDER here.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers — OVER 599.5 receiving yards and OVER 4.5 TD catches
Here's a fun one. CMC and Austin Ekeler are the only RBs for whom SD lists receiving yards and TD catches for the 2023 season. I'm smashing McCaffrey's OVER for both because in just 11 games with San Francisco last season, we saw him post 464 receiving yards and four TD catches.
A full season with that pace would be 717 receiving yards and over six TD receptions. While we think it will be more like 620 and five TDs, we still like both OVERs even more than we like his rushing OVERs (865.5 yards, 7 TDs). Let's be honest, though -- in Kyle Shanahan's offense, CMC could realistically go 4/4 on OVERs.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Patriots — OVER 925.5 yards
'Mondre is the guy in New England, and now Bill Belichick has actual offensive minds in the offensive coaching room. Stevenson had 1,040 yards rushing on just 210 carries last season, and that was before Damien Harris joined the AFC East rival Bills.
Pierre Strong Jr., Ty Montgomery, and Kevin Harris won't pose too much of a threat to Stevenson topping 1,000 yards for the second consecutive season. In fact, we have him closer to 1,200. Even if New England signs a veteran free-agent RB before the season starts, Stevenson seems likely to hit this OVER.
