As we rapidly near the holidays, we already have New Year's resolutions on our mind. I plan on saving money, working out, and learning a new language with my daughter in 2023 — and I also intend to make my readers a ton of money on the sports betting market. So, let's talk about our favorite Week 15 spread, moneyline, over/under, and prop wagers in order to make that last resolution a reality.
Every Wednesday, we meticulously review the betting offerings on BetMGM like Jesse Pinkman scouring Meth Damon's apartment for money in El Camino. We find the best bets for the upcoming slate of NFL games, typically selecting eight-to-10 wagers that strike us as both interesting and most likely to win you some cash. We analyze the stats, betting trends, and sharp betting reports to offer you the best advice and give you the greatest odds of achieving weekly betting success.
Week 14 was another topsy-turvy week. While the Bengals easily covered (-5.5) against the Browns for us, Tom Brady and the Bucs once again let us down and Buffalo missed the -10 cover by two points (add "Don't bet on TB12" to the resolutions list). We did get a moneyline cover from the Ravens (+105) over the Steelers, we also missed on a Panthers upset over the Seahawks. We hit on the UNDER for the Pats-Cards game but missed on the OVER in the bizarre Chargers-Dolphins game.
Let's bounce right back and return to glory this week, with the bye weeks over and done and a full NFL slate on the docket. As the playoff race intensifies, the games get better and the action becomes more intense. We just have to continue putting in the work, finding edges, and capitalizing with smart wagers. Without further ado, we present our best bets for Week 15 of the NFL season.
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props
Best NFL Bets Week 15: Against the spread
All odds are courtesy of BetMGM.
Seahawks (+3.5) vs. 49ers
Life is good if you're Brock Purdy. Mr. Irrelevant of the 2022 Draft has suddenly become one of the most relevant players in the NFL, leading a 49ers squad with legit Super Bowl aspirations to consecutive victories after Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a broken foot. These weren't just any wins, either — these were the Dolphins and Buccaneers! That's Purdy damn good (we all get one, right?). But Geno Smith and the Seahawks have also been good this season, good enough to rank sixth in scoring and fourth in passing TDs. In a must-win situation against a banged-up rookie QB facing a short week, give me Pete Carroll and his boys at home. Sure, they've dropped three of their past four games, lost their past two home tilts by six, and allowed 225.7 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks, but weird things happen in prime-time football. Home 'dogs tend to at least cover in these situations. Rookie phenom Kenneth Walker III is expected to return from his ankle injury, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf will step up big out wide, and the Seahawks D will bounce back by forcing the rookie QB to beat them.
NFL WEEK 15 PICKS: Against the spread | Moneyline
Eagles (-8.5) at Bears
Talk about a tale of two squads. The Eagles are 12-1 and front-and-center in the Super Bowl conversation, while the Bears are 3-10 and looking forward to the 2023 NFL Draft. Sure, Justin Fields had a brief midseason stretch where he dominated defenses with his legs, but Chicago still struggled to contain offenses. All Fields ended up with is one win and a dislocated shoulder. Now, the second-year QB has missed a mid-week practice due to illness ahead of the Bears' toughest test of the season? Sounds like a recipe for disaster. Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown will serve up yet another beatdown, winning their 13th game and covering their ninth spread of the season.
Chargers (-2.5) vs. Titans
Justin Herbert finally has both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back on the field at the same time, something that only happened for 45 offensive snaps before Week 14. The result was a massive win over the Dolphins to keep the Chargers' playoff hopes alive. The Titans have one of the youngest secondaries in the NFL, and it shows. Tennessee has served up the second-most passing yards and touchdowns in the NFL this season. Los Angeles should be favored by at least three here, so take the early Christmas gift.
MORE NFL WEEK 15: Power Rankings
Best NFL moneyline bets Week 15
Lions (-110) at Jets
After starting the season 1-6, the Lions have now won five of their past six games and have sportswriters across America wondering if Detroit can actually make the playoffs. As Kevin Garnett once said, "anything is possible!" A Lions win at MetLife this weekend seems not just possible, but probable. Jared Goff is playing some of the best football of his life right now, Jamaal Williams leads the NFL in rushing TDs, and Detroit has its stable of wide receivers fully healthy for the first time all year. I have nothing but respect for the Jets' defense, but I don't think Mike White and New York's offense has quite enough in the tank to keep up with Ben Johnson's offense, which ranks fifth in points and fourth in total yards. Gang Green takes its fourth L in five games.
MORE LIONS-JETS: Full betting preview
Ravens (+135) at Browns
Baltimore is 9-4 and facing a 5-8 Cleveland squad that just got Deshaun Watson back from suspension three weeks ago. Yet, the Browns are favored? Yeah, we get that Lamar Jackson (knee) is hurt and the Ravens have been a shell of their early-season offensive selves, but they've still won two straight games with Tyler Huntley under center. Huntley (concussion) is also up in the air for this week, which is likely why Cleveland is favored, but Baltimore's defense is playing inspired football. In its past five wins, opponents have averaged under 10 points per game. JK Dobbins being back and running wild serves as icing on the cake. As long as Huntley clears concussion protocol, which looks very possible, the Ravens will lay the smack down in the Dawg Pound.
Giants (+185) at Commanders
You had me at prime-time divisional underdogs. The Giants have hit the skids recently, with Saquon Barkley a bit banged up and Daniel Jones struggling with a depleted pass-catching corps. I'll still take a superior running team, defense, and head coach over Riverboat Ron Rivera and the Commanders with Taylor Heinicke under center. New York is 9-4 against the spread, 7-2 ATS as an underdog, and an NFL best 3-1 ATS on the road. No gold chains for Heinicke this Sunday night.
Best NFL over/under bets Week 15
Dolphins at Bills: OVER 43.5 (-110)
We get that Tyreek Hill (ankle) and Jeff Wilson Jr. (hip) are both dinged up and Buffalo has been a shell of its dominant early-season offense, but do we really expect a 20-17 game here? Sure, it will be cold and potentially snowy, but these squads are both high-powered and fighting for the best-possible playoff seeds. These are still two of the best passing and scoring offenses in the NFL, and above-average offenses have driven the total score up on both of these defenses in the past month or so. Pound the OVER and enjoy the Saturday night fireworks.
MORE DOLPHINS-BILLS: Full betting preview and prediction
Rams at Packers: UNDER 39.5 (-110)
This one should be a doozy. Aaron Rodgers desperately trying to will the Pack into the playoffs while the Rams limp to the finish line in one of the worst Super Bowl-hangover seasons we have ever seen. Both defenses remain solid despite the challenges their respective offenses have faced this season, and 15-degree weather typically doesn't translate to a ton of scoring. The Baker Mayfield hype will die off quickly and mercifully, and A-Rod will lead Green Bay to a low-scoring victory.
Best NFL player prop bet Week 15
Vikings vs. Colts: Justin Jefferson UNDER 7.5 catches (-145)
While we fully expect the Vikings to win this game, we don't think an eight-catch effort will be needed for Minnesota to pull it off. JJ has been held to seven catches or fewer in seven different games this season, and Indianapolis has defended WR1s pretty well. Over the past three games — matchups that featured A.J. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens — no WR1 has posted even six catches against the Colts D. Kirk Cousins can comfortably spread the wealth around to the likes of Dalvin Cook, T.J. Hockenson, and Adam Thielen.
