The 2022 NFL season has been predictably unpredictable, as anyone competing in survivor and pick 'em pools knows all too well. We have witnessed a ton of upsets, some bizarrely low-scoring games, and a massive amount of underdog covers in prime time. But our best bets remain strong, making us money week in and week out on the moneyline, against the spread, with point totals, and in the player prop market.
Every Wednesday, we pore over the betting offerings on BetMGM and select the best bets for the upcoming slate of NFL games. We typically select between eight-to-10 of our favorite wagers, all of which strike us as both interesting and likely to win some cash. We analyze the stats, betting trends, and sharp betting reports to offer you the best advice and give you the greatest odds of achieving weekly betting success.
MORE: Full list of odds for NFL Week 10
Last week, we admittedly hit the skids. After going on an 18-10 run over the previous three weeks, we stumbled like my toddler after spinning around with her eyes closed. We did have a couple of big hits — we strongly advised buying a half-point to give the Buccaneers -2.5 versus the Rams, and Tampa ultimately won 16-13. We also hit on the Ravens-Saints UNDER (47), clearing that by seven. otherwise, it was a forgettable week. It certainly happens, but we're happy to say we are still way up on the season.
Let's shake it off and get back to the spirit of winning, crushing the sportsbooks like Bill Belichick defenses crush the souls of rookie QBs.
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NFL Best Bets Week 10: Against the spread
All odds are courtesy of BetMGM.
Bears (-2.5) vs. Lions (buy a half-point)
I'm all over the Bears right now, as Justin Fields seems to have unlocked a personal cheat code over the past couple of weeks. In that span, the athletic second-year QB has five passing TDs, two rushing scores, and no interceptions. He ran for 178 yards last weekend, nearly guiding the Bears to an upset over the high-flying Dolphins but ultimately falling short 35-32.
While trade-deadline acquisition Chase Claypool has yet to produce, his presence in the Bears' pass game has clearly opened up the field for other receivers. Darnell Mooney hauled in seven-of-eight targets and caught his first touchdown of the season last week, and TE Cole Kmet nabbed five-of-six targets and scored twice. These guys should all be busy against a Lions squad that has allowed the most points, yards, and first downs in the NFL.
For that matter, David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert (as well as Fields) will be busy on the ground. The Bears have plenty of options now that Fields has established himself as a verifiable chain-mover. Detroit's offense enjoys enough weapons to make this a game, but Chicago's field-spacing RPO game and superior defense will be too much for the Lions.
NFL WEEK 10 PICKS: Against the spread | Moneyline Picks
Raiders (-4.5) vs. Colts
Ooh, this is a juicy one. The Colts fired head coach Frank Reich earlier this week, immediately replacing him with ESPN analyst and former Indy offensive lineman Jeff Saturday (who has zero experience coaching college or professional football). Even better, Saturday recently tweeted that the "Raiders look horrible," bulletin-board material for Josh McDaniels and his Vegas offense.
Saturday was not wrong about the Raiders — they looked pretty rough in consecutive road losses to the Saints and Jaguars — but the Colts' offense stinks even more. Indy has averaged fewer than 10 points over the past three weeks and now ranks last in scoring on the season. Second-year QB Sam Ehlinger looked like a lost fawn against the Patriots last weekend, taking nine sacks for 60 lost yards. He also threw for just 103 yards and tossed an interception.
Vegas should get back on track in this one, with Derek Carr continuing upon the rapport he built with Davante Adams last week. The Raiders have too many weapons to be defeated at home by an Indy squad with a brand-new coach, a terrible QB, and a banged-up Jonathan Taylor (ankle).
Chargers (+7.5) at 49ers (Sunday Night Football)
I recently wrote about the trend of underdogs covering the spread in a whopping 68.5 percent of Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football contests this year. That trend should hold up this weekend with Justin Herbert and the Chargers facing San Francisco.
We understand why sportsbooks are all over the Niners here. Christian McCaffrey has been quite the jolt for Jimmy Garoppolo and company, and the Chargers have been dealing with a plethora of injuries on both sides of the ball. But we still believe in Justin Herbert's ability to keep L.A. in games, especially in prime time. His weapons, while not nearly as lethal as usual with Keenan Allen (hamstring) and Mike Williams (ankle) hurt, are still plentiful.
Austin Ekeler remains one of the most potent dual-threat backs in football, and Joshua Palmer, DeAndre Carter, and tight end Gerald Everett have proven themselves as reliable pass-catching threats. The Bolts may not pull off the road upset — heavy moneyline favorites typically win the evening games — but we like them to at least lose by fewer than 7.5 points and move to 2-0 ATS as away underdogs.
MORE NFL WEEK 10: Power Rankings
Best NFL moneyline bets Week 10
Broncos (+125) at Titans
We're doing it — we're actually backing Russell Wilson and the Broncos again. Before you call me insane, listen to my reasoning.
Nathaniel Hackett and company realize they are in a must-win situation, and they have had an extra week to prepare for this one. Tennessee has a very young, unpolished secondary allowing the third-most passing yards per game this season (275.6). Denver's D, meanwhile, has allowed the fewest passing yards per game (175.8) and draws a Titans squad that literally cannot throw the ball into the ocean from a floating dock.
Derrick Henry will get his on the ground regardless of who's at QB for Tennessee, but don't expect the Titans to have enough through the air to prevail in this one. Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Greg Dulcich will help Russ cook up a win in Music City.
Dolphins (-185) vs. Browns
After squeaking out a 35-32 victory over Justin Fields and the scrappy Bears in Chicago, Tua Tagovailoa and his high-flying offense head back to South Beach for what should be a much simpler matchup. The Browns have elite running back Nick Chubb and a good array of pass-catchers and should get tight end David Njoku (ankle) back, but Miami has 10 times the firepower.
Never mind the fact that Tua enjoys the best one-two wide receiver punch in the NFL in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but Miami also has Mike McDaniel's advanced run and RPO system with Raheem Mostert and now Jeff Wilson Jr., both of whom he coached (and enjoyed success with) in San Francisco. Cleveland has quietly served up the ninth-most points in the NFL this season, and Miami has scored 66 points on the road over the past two weeks. 'Fins up on this one.
Vikings (+135) at Bills
UPDATE: Minnesota is back to a +220 underdog
The more I look at this game, the more I think Buffalo is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers while Minnesota is getting a ton of disrespect. The Vikings (7-1) have a better record than the Bills (6-2), they just improved offensively with the trade-deadline acquisition of tight end T.J. Hockenson, and they're jelling on both sides of the football. Buffalo, meanwhile, just lost to the Jets and franchise QB Josh Allen narrowly avoided a disastrous elbow injury in the process. Bills coach Sean McDermott calls his MVP candidate signal-caller "day-to-day" and says "we'll see" if he suits up against the Vikes, but my gut tells me one of two things will happen:
- He will sit this one out to ensure the sprain/strain heals and he's fine for the rest of the season; or
- He will play, but after not practicing all week.
Regardless of which hypothetical situation ends up coming to fruition, it's not good for the Bills. The Vikings D has forced seven turnovers in its past three games and just held Washington to 126 passing yards in Week 9. I wouldn't bet the farm on an away team in Buffalo, but I certainly don't believe in the Bills coming off a loss to the Jets with a hampered Allen. Minnesota controls the clock with Dalvin Cook and grinds out a tough road victory in this one.
Best NFL over/under bets Week 10
Cowboys at Packers: UNDER 44 (-110)
BetQL's sharp betting report has 76 percent of money on the OVER for this one, so naturally, we are going against the grain and betting the UNDER. The Packers are out of sorts offensively. They just lost to the Lions (the worst defense in the NFL) by a score of 15-9, losing rookie receiver Romeo Doubs (ankle) in the process. Green Bay has scored 14.3 points per game over the past four weeks and now welcomes a Dallas defense that features elite LB Micah Parsons and CB Trevon Diggs. Additionally, Green Bay's defense has been pretty good itself. It has kept Aaron Rodgers in the game despite his many failures to communicate with his young pass-catchers. With temperatures in the low 30s and two squads whose defenses shine much brighter than their offenses, we're predicting a 24-17 Dallas victory here.
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Commanders at Eagles (Monday Night Football): UNDER 43.5 (-110)
It's the year of the UNDER, especially on Monday Night Football, so of course we're betting on the Eagles stifling Taylor Heinicke and the Commanders in Philly. Washington has scored 17 or fewer points in each of the past two games and six-of-nine contests this season. The Eagles, meanwhile, have allowed the fourth-fewest points and third-fewest total yards in the NFL, holding six of their eight opponents to 17 or fewer points. The UNDER makes too much sense here based on all of the stats and trends. Washington can't run the ball, which is the only way Houston moved any chains against Philly last Thursday. If Heinicke is forced to throw 30-40 passes, the swarming Eagles will be coming away with a ton of defensive stops, sacks, and takeaways.
Best NFL player prop bets Week 10
Panthers vs. Falcons (Thursday Night Football): D.J. Moore anytime TD scorer (+150)
P.J. Walker will remain the Panthers' starting QB for their Thursday Night Football showdown with the division-rival Falcons, according to NFL Network inside Tom Pelissaro. That's fantastic news for Moore, who seems to become invisible whenever Baker Mayfield takes the field. Moore has enjoyed his best statistical numbers with Walker under center — 221 of his 449 yards and two of his three TDs this season came in Weeks 7 and 8. Walker struggled against the AFC defending-champion Bengals last weekend and got the early hook from interim coach Steve Wilks, but we expect the P.J.-to-D.J. connection to resume at home against the Falcons, who have surrendered 15 passing TDs and the most passing yards in the NFL.
