For the Dolphins, all they do is win. Miami's offense has been the talk of the young season, and it's only fitting that they now take on the rival Bills in a battle for who can sit atop the AFC East and in the driver's seat on the winding road that they'll travel down until the season ends. So far, it's been a smooth ride for Miami after a 2022 that was plagued by detours and plenty of construction, but Florida has less red tape and worked quickly to rectify the issue. An offseason and some jiu-jitsu proved to be all they'd need, as Tua Tagovailoa has his speedsters rolling in first place through three weeks.
It's an offense that's scored at will, most recently posting 70 points in Week 3. Now they head to the place from which many cufrrent Floridians originated, New York, for a chance to beat up on their northern counterparts in Buffalo. The Bills lost a heartbreaker in Week 1 to the zombie Jets but righted the ship and turned in two dominating performances against the Raiders and Commanders. But this is a step up in competition with a lot on the line. Will the passing attacks light up the Buffalo sky, or are we in for a ground game on Sunday afternoon? No matter what you may think, SuperDraft has the props that will have us counting our cash all the way to the bank.
SuperDraft users can win 3X the amount wagered if their two-legged player prop parlay hits. If all four of the props below hit, users will win 10x their entry. In other words, a $20 entry fee will yield a $200 payout. the more legs you add to your player prop parlay, the larger your potential payout becomes, but as the long odds indicate, completing a clean sweep is challenging. If you're looking for more action, you could enter Sunday's Progressive Jackpot contest and hit it big like a SuperDraft user did last week:
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Below, we'll break down four of our favorite SuperDraft player props for the Sunday afternoon clash between the Dolphins and Bills. Users don't necessarily have to parlay all four picks together, though. Instead, you could make separate two-legged parlays to increase your win probability or attempt to hit it big if all three picks come through.
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Best Dolphins-Bills prop bets: SuperDraft player prop picks for Week 4
*10x potential payout if users parlay all four correct picks
1. Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins — OVER 53.5 rushing yards
When Mostert is healthy, he's a menace to defenses. He's cemented himself as a top fantasy running back, a bettors' dream, and a key piece in the Dolphins' offense. Mostert is averaging 13.7 carries per game and turning in an impressive 80 rushing yards on average. Jeff Wilson Jr. (finger, midsection) is still on IR, meaning that the competition is limited to just De'Von Achane. The explosive rookie impressed in Week 3, leaving many to question whether this is still Mostert's backfield.
We believe the workload will still remain, even if Miami tries to limit their starting running back and protect his health for later in the season. The Bills surrender the most yards per carry to running backs (5.9) this season, meaning even with a lighter workload, we'd still be confident in Mostert smashing the OVER here. Consider Achane to be a solid pivot depending on if and when a number is posted, but for now, we'd play Mostert's line up to 57.5 as we buy all the Dolphins' RB stock.
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2. Josh Allen, QB, Bills — OVER 34.5 rushing yards
Allen is similar to the players on a hockey team referred to as "goons," except his level of talent goes far beyond what those players are usually capable of. The point is, Allen appears to have no regard for his body. He looks to use his size and athleticism advantage in every situation, a reckless player that truly embodies the "video game quarterback" label that some have put on him. Whether it's the hurdles, the unnecessary hits, or an unwillingness to just run out of bounds, Allen is constantly putting himself in harm's way. With someone like that, value is created in the betting market. Those hurdles might come back to cost him at some point, as he's one big hit away from a serious injury, but he's two-for-three in going over this number so far this season.
He covered this number in both regular season meetings against McDaniel's Dolphins last year and four straight overall against Miami dating back to 2021. In a game that projects to feature plenty of scoring, we like Allen to put his body on the line again as he tries to sustain drives and keep the Miami offense off the field. Miami allowed Justin Herbert to total 17 rushing yards on five carries in Week 1 and then Mac Jones to record 25 yards on five carries in Week 2. Russell Wilson didn't attempt to run in Week 3, but those opportunities are clearly there. Expect Allen to take advantage. Allen is only averaging four carries per game, though, down from 7.8 in 2022, so don't take this number up much higher. We feel comfortable going up to 37.5.
3. Gabe Davis, WR, Bills — UNDER 44.5 receiving yards
A broken clock is right twice a day, and ironically, that's about how often Davis truthers are right about him having a breakout week each season. The receiver averaged 6.2 targets per game last year, catching around 3.2. This year, he's down to about five targets per game, catching three. He's covered this number only once in three games, with a 40-yard catch being a big factor in him hitting the Week 2 OVER. Davis is one of the ultimate boom-or-bust players, with more bust than boom.
Davis went one-for-two in covering this number last season against Miami, but it's hard to rely on a player that never seems to live up to the hype. With so many other options available for Allen, we think Davis takes a backseat again to Stefon Diggs, Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid, and James Cook. Enjoy the cardio, No. 13. Take this down to 42.5.
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4. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins — UNDER 274.5 passing yards
In terms of popular picks, this one isn't going to win over many fans. Western New York might be the only chance we have at making some friends here, but after crushing Davis with our last pick, perhaps we'll just remain loyal to our wallets. Tagovailoa comes in with an inflated line off his string of impressive performances, but what is lost in the shuffle is that he was held under this number by the Patriots (249) and went well under this number in both games against Buffalo last season (186 and 234), though he did exit early in the first contest. The latter is more important for our analysis given Tua was healthy all game and Miami lost in a shootout (32-29). With the Bills struggling to contain the ground game and defending the pass at a higher level by comparison, the Dolphins will likely try to exploit Buffalo with their backfield of Mostert and Achane.
