The AFC-leading Chiefs look to keep their five-game winning streak alive as they travel to Paul Brown Stadium to face the 7-4 Bengals in a rematch of last season's AFC Championship game (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS). Kansas City enters Week 13 off a 26-10 win over the depleted Rams while Cincinnati notched an impressive 20-16 road win over the AFC South-leading Titans.
Cincinnati's currently riding a two-game winning streak over Kansas City, sweeping both meetings last season in come-from-behind fashion. While it's a super small sample size, Joe Burrow has yet to lose against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, and he's looking to become the first quarterback to beat Mahomes three straight times.
Can Burrow keep his undefeated record against Kansas City or will Mahomes show the nation why he's the MVP frontrunner?
WEEK 13 NFL PICKS: Against the Spread | Straight up
For those looking for a play, we'll give you all the information you need before placing a wager on Bengals-Chiefs, including the updated odds from BetMGM, tips, and our prediction for this Week 13 late-afternoon showdown.
Bengals vs. Chiefs odds for NFL Week 13
- Spread: Chiefs -2.5 (-110); Bengals +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 53
- Moneyline: Chiefs -135; Bengals +110
In the preseason look-ahead lines, Cincinnati and Kansas City were priced as a pick 'em in this contest. With the Chiefs steamrolling through the AFC West, they re-opened as three-point road favorites last week but have since been bet down to 2.5-point road favorites. The current total of 53 is the highest over/under on the board in Week 13 and has been slightly bet up from an opening number of 51.
MORE WEEK 13 NFL: Odds, spreads
Bengals vs. Chiefs all-time series
The Bengals lead the all-time series over the Chiefs with a 17-14 overall record. As we mentioned in the intro, Cincinnati is on a two-game winning streak over Kansas City. The Bengals notched a 34-31 victory over the Chiefs in Week 17 and followed it up with a 27-24 overtime victory in last season's AFC Championship game. Kansas City's last win in this series came back in October 2018 in a 45-10 rout over the then-Andy Dalton-led Bengals.
Three trends to know
-- The Bengals sit in a three-way tie with the Giants and Titans, sporting an NFL-best 72.7-percent cover rate (8-3 ATS), covering in three straight games.
-- While the Chiefs have one of the most potent offenses, four of their past six games have fallen UNDER the total.
-- According to BetQL, "Under Zac Taylor, the Bengals are also 8-1 ATS against teams that average at least 7.5 yards per pass attempt, which the Chiefs are surely doing behind MVP frontrunner Patrick Mahomes."
Take advantage of BetQL’s 3-day free trial and see all of our best bets across all sports, including college football, NFL, and MLB!
Three things to watch for
Kansas City's ability to limit turnovers
Untimely turnovers undid the Chiefs in last season's AFC Championship, costing them a chance to return to a third-straight Super Bowl. Mahomes tossed a momentum shifting-interception at the tail end of the third quarter to give the Bengals plus field position trailing 21-13. Mahomes later followed that up with an interception on the first possession of overtime that gave the Bengals a prime opportunity to advance to the Super Bowl.
Last week, the Chiefs also committed two turnovers, but with the Rams' struggling to generate consistent offense, Skyy Moore's muffed punt and Mahomes' red-zone interception didn't come back to haunt them. Cincinnati is capable of making turnovers haunt their opponents as it did in last season's AFC Championship.
Ja'Marr Chase's return
Chase is trending toward making his return to game action this Sunday, missing the Bengals' past four games dealing with a hip injury. His return is a much-needed boost for an already-dangerous Cincinnati offense. Chase's ability to dominate in the red zone (eight red-zone receptions) and take pressure off fellow WR Tee Higgins makes Burrow's job much easier. Chase also had the best game of his career against the Chiefs in Week 17 of last season, racking up 266 receiving yards and three TDs on 11 receptions. Even if Chase is less than 100 percent, he's going to be a tough cover for Kansas City's secondary.
Chiefs' pass rush
Kansas City obviously needs to pressure Burrow, and it's possible they get Burrow under duress a fair amount on Sunday. The Bengals' offensive line still ranks in the bottom third of the league per PFF's pass-blocking grade (60.6), and the Chiefs' defensive line sports the 10th-highest pass-rush grade (73.8). Like most QBs, Burrow sports his lowest completion percentage under pressure (53.3 percent), so winning at the line of scrimmage is crucial.
Stat that matters
26 games. That's Patrick Mahomes' and the Chiefs' current winning streak in November and December games, the longest winning streak by any team through November and December in NFL history. Kansas City's last loss during those two months came when it was outdueled 35-32 to the Titans in 2019.
Bengals vs. Chiefs prediction
We're in store for another classic matchup between these two teams. Considering the game opened at a pick 'em and is now at 2.5, some line value may actually lie with the Bengals. Even though we aren't getting the best of the number, it's hard to bet against the MVP frontrunner during a time when he's traditionally dominated. We'll predict that Kansas City's ability to avoid costly turnovers results in its sixth-straight win, ending its two-game skid against the reigning AFC champions.
PREDICTION: Chiefs 31, Bengals 27. Kansas City (-2.5) covers the spread with the game going OVER the total (53).
