Patrick Mahomes has been at the center of the most exciting quarterback rivalries in the NFL today. First, it was Tom Brady and Mahomes. Then, it was Josh Allen and Mahomes. Justin Herbert and Mahomes have provided some thrilling games. And, most recently, Joe Burrow and Mahomes.
But on Monday, two of the NFL's brightest young quarterbacks will get a chance to face off for the first time in what could be yet another thrilling quarterback rivalry. Burrow and the Bengals will host Allen and the Bills in what has been hyped up as one of the most anticipated "Monday Night Football" matchups of the season.
Burrow and Allen don't have much in common, outside of playing quarterback for winning teams and throwing right-handed. Burrow might be the most accurate quarterback since Drew Brees. Allen has a howitzer for an arm. Burrow likes to stay in the pocket and escape when necessary. Allen's ability to bulldoze defenders is a signature trait of his game.
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These two quarterbacks are franchise QBs neither the Bengals nor the Bills would trade for the world, and both appear poised to keep their teams in positions to compete for Super Bowls for the foreseeable future. As they prepare to face off for the first time in their NFL careers, The Sporting News is taking a look at the two quarterbacks by the numbers, and which QB has the edge.
Joe Burrow vs. Josh Allen stats
Traditional stats
Allen entered the league as the MVP favorite. Now, it looks like the only quarterback that could catch Mahomes in the race is Burrow.
This year, Burrow has been the better passer between him and Allen, but Allen has the better rushing stats. Here's a look at a comparison of the two in 2022:
| Burrow | Stat | Allen |
|---|---|---|
| 389-564 (69.0) | Comp-Att (Comp%) | 340-536 (63.4) |
| 4,260 | Pass Yds | 4,029 |
| 34 | Pass TDs | 32 |
| 12 | Ints | 13 |
| 102.3 | Rate | 96.1 |
| 72 | Carries | 115 |
| 247 | Rush Yds | 746 |
| 5 | Rush TDs | 7 |
And that has been the trend so far in their careers. While Allen has two more years to his name, Burrow has been the more efficient passer, with Allen boasting better rushing numbers. Because Allen has been in the league longer, he will naturally have more passing touchdowns, interceptions, yards, so we're looking at per-game stats and career passer ratings.
| Burrow | Stat | Allen |
|---|---|---|
| 24.9-36.3 (68.5) | Comp-Att (Comp%) | 20.9-33.4 (62.5) |
| 281.9 | Pass Yds | 238.7 |
| 2.0 | Pass TDs | 1.8 |
| 0.8 | Ints | 0.8 |
| 101.0 | Rate | 92.1 |
| 3.6 | Carries | 7.1 |
| 12.4 | Rush Yds | 40.4 |
| 0.2 | Rush TDs | 0.5 |
So if you're looking at the traditional stats, Burrow has been the better passer and Allen has been the better rusher.
But we're going a bit deeper than that, looking at several of the most important traits at quarterback, and which QBs have had the edge.
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Bigger arm
There's no question which quarterback has the bigger arm, but there are more elements to this than just looking at how far a quarterback can throw the ball down the field.
Sure, Allen is a runaway in that category. Burrow's longest completed air distance on a pass in the NFL is 55.6 yards, which he did in 2021, according to Next Gen Stats. Allen has the fifth-longest completion in the Next Gen Stats era (dating back to 2016) at 63.9 yards.
But Allen's arm strength is more than just putting air underneath the football. His ability to rifle passes into tight windows is evident based on his big-time throws, which are measured by Pro Football Focus as "a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window." So far in 2022, 7.2 percent of Allen's throws have been graded as big-time throws, which is far and away the most among qualifying quarterbacks. Burrow is tied for seventh at 4.7 percent.
Allen is consistently throwing the ball down the field as well. According to RBSDM, since 2020 when Burrow entered the league, Allen's average of 8.7 yards per pass beyond the line of scrimmage is third in the NFL among qualifying quarterbacks, while Burrow is 16th at 7.8, meaning Allen is throwing the ball nearly a full yard downfield per throw than Burrow.
Burrow has his own strengths in the deep passing game. This year, he has a better PFF deep passing grade (95.7 to Allen's 90.1), and while Allen has four picks on deep throws, Burrow has only one.
Allen also attempts far more passes down the field (14 percent of his throws) while Burrow heaves it downfield only 8.2 percent of the time. Burrow might be more accurate when it comes to throwing down the field (more on that later), but between the explosive throws and ability to throw the ball farther downfield, the edge clearly goes to Allen.
Edge: Allen
Accuracy
Another category with an obvious answer, but still, one in which to dive deeper, particularly as Allen has made improvements in recent years.
During Allen's first two seasons in the NFL, he completed only 56.3 percent of his passes. In his three years since, however, he's up to 65.3 percent. Interceptions remain a problem — no one has more than his 38 picks since the start of 2020 — but part of the trade-off for those big throws is the mistakes.
When it comes to Burrow, he's in rarified air for a quarterback. He has a 68.5 completion percentage in his career, the best for any quarterback through the first 41 starts of their career, according to Stathead. On Monday, he'll officially qualify to become the NFL's new leader in career completion percentage, passing Brees' 67.7 percent mark unless he throws 18 straight passes without a completion.
Interceptions have been an issue for both quarterbacks in 2022. Allen is tied for third in the league with 13, while Burrow is alone in sixth at 12. But those numbers by themselves don't tell the full story. Until Burrow threw two picks against the Patriots in Week 16, his previous five interceptions had all been on passes tipped and then picked off.
There are several better metrics that evaluate accuracy for a quarterback. The first is turnover-worthy plays from PFF. While this also includes fumbles, it leans most heavily on pass attempts for quarterbacks. In 2022, Allen has the most turnover-worthy plays among quarterbacks at 29 and leads qualifying QBs at 4.4 percent. Burrow, on the other hand, is tied for the ninth-fewest turnover-worthy plays at 14 and is tied with Andy Dalton for the third-lowest turnover-worthy play rate at 2.1 percent.
Then there's the stats from Pro Football Reference, which measure poor throw rates and on-target rates. This season, Burrow has an on-target throw rate of 79.3 percent and a poor throw rate of just 12.6 percent. Since 2020, he trails only Aaron Rodgers among qualifying quarterbacks with a 79.5 percent on-target throw rate, according to Stathead. As for bad throw rate, his 12.5 percent clip since 2020 is the lowest. Allen has been on target for 73.7 percent of his passes this season, and ranks 19th since 2020 at 75.8 percent. He also has a 16.4 percent bad throw rate in 2022 and ranks 15th at 16.7 percent since 2020.
Lastly, there's how many more passes quarterbacks are completing than expected. This season, Burrow ranks third, completing 3.3 percent more passes than expected (CPOE), according to RBSDM.com. Allen is 13th at 0.9 percent. Since the start of 2020, Burrow trails only Rodgers in CPOE (4.5 percent to 4.2 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 1,000 plays, while Allen checks in at fifth (3.2 percent).
Allen has made vast improvements in his accuracy in recent years, but Burrow has a strong case to be the league's most accurate quarterback.
Edge: Burrow
Pocket presence
Now here's a part of the quarterbacking game that is much more up for debate. Both these quarterbacks are dangerous when they have time in the pocket, and are effective at picking up pressure from opponents.
Since Burrow came into the league, few quarterbacks are as dangerous when blitzed. In his third year, Burrow has the third-highest PFF grade when blitzed (78.8) trailing only Andy Dalton and Rodgers. On those pass attempts, he has thrown 11 touchdowns and only three interceptions. In part, that is due to his ability to get the ball out quick. His time to throw of 2.48 seconds is the second-lowest in the league behind only Tom Brady's 2.30. In part because of Allen's ability to run the ball and make things happen on the move, he ranks 18th at 2.85 seconds to throw.
Allen has been less effective picking up the blitz this year. His passing grade of 67.5 when blitzed ranks 12th in the league. However, his physicality and mobility in the pocket has allowed him to post the lowest pressure-to-sack rate at 9.7 percent, while Burrow sits at the eighth-highest rate at 25 percent.
If pressure reaches the quarterback, however, Allen has the slight edge. He has a 64.9 PFF grade when pressured, the best in the league, and an 11:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, while Burrow sits at a 56.5 PFF grade and a 7:3 ratio. If they can avoid the pressure, it is again a different story. Burrow has craved up teams to a 92.5 PFF grade, second only to Mahomes, and 27:9 TD:INT ratio. Allen checks in with an 85.8 grade and 21:10 ratio.
A big critique of Burrow's game coming into 2022 was that on top of a spotty offensive line, he had a tendency to wait too long in the pocket and allow the pressure to get to him. He has changed that in a big way in 2022. PFF reports he has had some responsibility on just 6.2 percent of sacks this year, second in the NFL behind Kirk Cousins, and he has allowed just five sacks. Again due in part to Allen's mobility, he had responsibility on sacks at a higher rate (19.6 percent, fifth) and allowed eight sacks.
These two are close to even when it comes to pocket presence. Allen can shake off sacks better because of his physicality and has been a slightly better passer when pressured. But Burrow's ability to get the ball out quick, torch teams on blitzes and pass with more success when kept clean gives him the edge.
Edge: Burrow
Running ability
Sometimes though, the quarterback has to leave the pocket and make something else happen. And that is really what makes Allen so dangerous. Burrow has made this a closer debate in 2022. He has already set a single-season best with 247 rushing yards and 46 rushing attempts, and he's scored five times on the ground.
But Burrow is more of a scrambler who runs when the play breaks down. Allen can use his legs as a legitimate weapon. Allen's 92.8 PFF grade while running is the highest for any qualifying non-running back. He averages 3.43 yards after contact per attempt and has forced 25 missed tackles.
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This is nothing new for Allen. His 93.6 PFF grade in 2021 also led all non-running backs. He ran the ball 84 times for 897 yards and scored on the ground six times, his fewest rushing touchdowns in a season, having posted nine in both 2019 and 2020, and eight in 2018.
Burrow has begun to incorporate mobility into his game more in 2022. He has a PFF rushing grade of 76.5, the best of his career, but lacks that physical running style of Allen. Burrow averages only 1.6 yards after contact per carry and has forced only four missed tackles. His running style has become something teams at least need to consider, but Allen's style is a legitimate part of the Bills' offensive gameplan.
Edge: Allen
