Houston had the opportunity to hold the second spot in the AFC South and move to 7-4 on Jacksonville's heels in Week 12, but instead fell to that very team in a winnable game, 24-21 on Sunday.
MVP-candidate quarterback C.J. Stroud put on a great performance, leading the team down the field on the final drive of the game to give the Texans a chance to either tie things up or win it.
In the final seconds of the game on fourth and 12, head coach DeMeco Ryans elected to send out kicker Matt Ammendola to try for a 58-yard field goal. It was no good, putting a victory on ice for Jacksonville.
The loss marked the end of a three-game winning streak for the Texans. Despite some of those around him not fully holding up their end of the bargain, Stroud finished the game 26-of-36 passing for 304 yards and two touchdowns. He was also Houston's leading rusher with six carries for 47 yards and one touchdown.
MORE: Updated NFL standings, playoff picture for Week 12
Here's a look at how the division standings were affected by Houston's fall to Jacksonville:
AFC South standings
With the loss, the Texans drop to third place in the division because of the loss on Sunday and because the Colts hold the tiebreaker with the 31-20 win over the Texans from back on Sept. 17. The rest of the standings remain the same with the Jags firmly in the hunt to play things out in the postseason.
The AFC South has been among the lowliest divisions in football over recent years and the performance of its four teams overall this season can be justifiably described as "lackluster." It is important to note that Jacksonville, a team that has come a long way with quarterback Trevor Lawrence at the helm, is having a solid season overall.
| Rank | Team | W-L |
| 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 8-3 |
| 2 | Indianapolis Colts | 6-5 |
| 3 | Houston Texans | 6-5 |
| 4 | Tennessee Titans | 4-7 |
The Colts won their Sunday contest against the Buccaneers 27-20. It marks their third consecutive victory after they topped the Patriots 10-6 last week and beat the Panthers 27-13 on Nov. 5.
The Titans' disappointing season hit a small high note as Tennessee secured a 17-10 win over a visiting Carolina team, snapping a three-game losing streak.
If the season were to end today, the Jags, Dolphins, Ravens, Chiefs, Browns, Steelers and Colts would be in the playoffs from the AFC.
The Texans and the Bills remain the strongest teams on the outside looking in. Though some things could still change moving down the stretch, Jacksonville looks to be firmly in the driver's seat where the division is concerned as it stands right now.
Following Sunday's results, here's how Sporting News' projection model currently sees the division shaping up.
| Team | xW-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | No. 1 seed% | AFC% | SB% |
| Jaguars | 12-5 | 93.3% | 5.6% | 99.0% | 19.7% | 13.6% | 5.8% |
| Texans | 10-7 | 4.8% | 47.3% | 52.1% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Colts | 9-8 | 1.8% | 29.5% | 31.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Titans | 6-11 | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The Jaguars' win over Houston all but wraps up the AFC South in the model's eyes. It also all but finalized Jacksonville's spot in the playoffs and vaulted their odds for the No. 1 seed up to 19.7 percent, third-best in the AFC behind only the Chiefs and Dolphins.
Even with the loss, the Texans still have solid odds to reach the playoffs at 52.1 percent, ahead of the Bills and Colts, who are the next two teams up.
