Heading into the 2022 NFL season, the AFC East looked like the Bills and a bunch of question marks. The Patriots and Jets were going with second-year quarterbacks for whom the hope was growth, while the Dolphins had a first-year coach in Mike McDaniel.
What has transpired since has been surprising. All four teams are alive in the AFC playoff race deep into December. The Patriots and Jets haven't seen the improvement they hoped for from their young quarterbacks, with the Jets eventually benching Zach Wilson for Mike White. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have become enamored with McDaniel and the play of Tua Tagovailoa, despite recent struggles.
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Even the Bills have been a bit of a surprise, although not in the best way. The defense has been outstanding despite losing Von Miller for the season to a torn ACL, but the offense has sputtered at times. Nevertheless, they're two games ahead of the Dolphins and three ahead of the Patriots and Jets.
It would take a miracle for all three AFC wild-card spots to go to East teams. One of the requirements is a massive collapse by the Ravens or Bengals. And the division will cannibalize itself in the season's closing weeks. But every team has a shot at making the playoffs, an impressive feat and of itself.
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Here's the outlook for each of the East teams the remainder of the season.
AFC East standings
1. Buffalo Bills
Record: 10-3
Remaining schedule: vs. Dolphins, at Bears, at Bengals, vs. Patriots
The Bills are in solid shape heading into the home stretch. They're two games ahead of the Dolphins and they have two more divisional matchups left. Their game against Miami on Saturday night is also significant because they're looking to avenge a loss in South Florida in Week 3.
Though the season has been far from smooth, Buffalo is first in the division and it still has a premier quarterback in Josh Allen. The path for the Bills is clear: Keep winning and they're in.
2. Miami Dolphins
Record: 8-5
Remaining schedule: at Bills, vs. Packers, at Patriots, vs. Jets
The Dolphins' path is a fascinating one.
Three of their last four games are against divisional opponents, starting with the Bills on Saturday. A win at Buffalo would put the Dolphins a game back of the Bills and give them the head-to-head tiebreaker.
They're in a tier of their own in the AFC: Their path to winning the division isn't clear-cut but they're also peering down their noses at the teams fighting it out below them.
3. New England Patriots
Record: 7-6
Remaining schedule: at Raiders, vs. Bengals, vs. Dolphins, at Bills
The Patriots aren't where they want to be, but they are in the playoffs heading into Week 15. They're the seventh seed in the AFC, and they also have a pair of divisional games left.
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But it is a challenging end-of-season schedule overall. The Raiders have shown who they are, but the Bengals are blistering hot and the Dolphins and Bills had New England's number in their first meetings.
Mac Jones has had a lot of ups and downs this season, and these Patriots seem to lack an identity on offense. They're fighting with the Chargers and Jets for the No. 7 spot, which brings us to . . .
4. New York Jets
Record: 7-6
Remaining schedule: vs. Lions, vs. Jaguars, at Seahawks, at Dolphins
The Jets may be the team with the highest variance. If someone said prior to the year the quarterback the team drafted second overall last year would be benched, it wouldn't be unreasonable to think they'd have bottomed out.
But benching Wilson was a competitive decision by coach Robert Saleh, and although it hasn't yielded the desired results the past two weeks, Mike White has kept New York competitive against the Vikings and Bills. This team is now built around defense, and the Jets are 2-5 when giving up 20-plus points.
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The Patriots and Jets almost have to win every week, and the Dolphins are a loss away from entering that territory as well. The Bills are looking to embark on what they hope is a path to Glendale in the postseason.
But a lot still stands in their way, including the other three teams in their division if one of them gets Buffalo in the playoffs. The Dolphins, Patriots, and Jets all seem to be playing with house money. That means not taking them seriously could well cost a team or two their season.
