Week 7 college football pool picks, grid projections and expert CFB predictions for Saturday pick'em games

We have had Oct. 12 circled since the summer. 

It should not disappoint. No. 1 Texas takes on No. 18 Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. No. 2 Ohio State travels to No. 3 Oregon, and No. 9 Ole Miss travels to No. 13 LSU. 

If that’s not enough, we also have No. 4 Penn State at USC, Florida at No. 8 Tennessee and a late-night matchup between No. 18 Kansas State and Colorado. The Wildcats and Buffaloes have a true 60-40 split according to the college football data grid. Will Colorado pull off the upset? 

Throughout the 2024 season, Sporting News is partnering with PoolGenius to provide best-in-class pool strategy tips, expert quick picks and updated data grids all with one goal in mind: helping you win.

Not only does PoolGenius's college football data grid project winners for every game, it also shows the biggest differences between their model and the betting public, giving you the chance to find hidden opportunities across every single game on the schedule. 

College football Week 7 picks 

Friday, Sept. Oct. 11

• No. 16 Utah (-4) at Arizona State (10:30 p.m., ESPN) 

A battle of one-loss Big 12 teams, and the Sun Devils have enjoyed a revival with second-year coach Kenny Dillingham. Cam Skattebo averages 5.6 yards per carry, and the defense allows just 96 yards on three yards per carry. Utah had a bye week, and the quarterback situation remains a mystery. The Utes beat the Sun Devils 55-3 last season. Utah is 1-3 ATS against Power 4 opponents, but that cover was on a spread of less than seven points. 

Pick: Utah wins 31-24 and COVERS the spread. 

Saturday, Oct. 12

• South Carolina at No. 7 Alabama (-22) (12 p.m., ABC) 

How does Alabama get off the mat after a shocking loss to Vanderbilt? The Gamecocks are coming off a 27-3 loss to Ole Miss, but it's worth noting they covered in a 30-6 victory at Kentucky in their only other road game this season. Alabama's defense struggled, but this will be a key difference this week. Vanderbilt ranks 20th in the FBS in third-down conversions. South Carolina is 120th. Expect Alabama to take advantage of that in the second half, and Jalen Milroe and Ryan Williams connect for a pair of TDs. Still, that spread is a lot for a struggling defense to back up. South Carolina is 6-7 ATS as a road underdog under Shane Beamer. 

Pick: Alabama wins 38-10 and COVERS the spread. 

• No. 10 Clemson (-20.5) at Wake Forest (12 p.m., ESPN) 

Clemson continues to roll in the ACC since the season-opening loss to Georgia. The Tigers have covered three of the last four weeks, but this line dropped two points from its open. That makes it a little tougher to count on Wake Forest – who have given up 30 or more points in every game this season. The Demon Deacons have the worst defense in the ACC, too. We will count on the Tigers to get a few stops on the road. 

Pick: Clemson wins 42-21 and COVERS the spread. 

• No. 21 Missouri (-27.5) at UMass (12 p.m., ESPN2) 

Missouri is coming off a blowout loss – and now the Tigers have an oddly-scheduled game at UMass. The Minutemen average 19.2 points per game with former Clemson and Georgia Tech quarterback Taisun Phommahanh. Missouri needs a get-well game on offense, and the offense will break out a huge first-half lead behind Brady Cook and Nate Noel. Missouri is 8-0 S/U and 5-3 ATS in non-conference games since 2023. 

Pick: Missouri wins 45-9 and COVERS the spread. 

• No. 1 Texas (-14.5) vs. No. 18 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m. ABC) 

The Red River Rivalry comes with a huge spread. Texas did beat Oklahoma 49-0 in 2022 with Quinn Ewers as a freshman, so a blowout is possible if OU quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. cannot find some consistency in the passing game. The Sooners allow just 2.6 yards per carry with a defense led by Danny Stutsman – and if they can make Texas one-dimensional then there is a chance. That 2022 blowout was the anomaly in a series that has produced nine one-score games in the last 10 meetings. 

Pick: Texas wins 31-21 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

• Purdue at No. 23 Illinois (-19.5) (3:30 p.m., FS1) 

The Boilermakers have scored just 11 points per game through a four-game losing streak and are coming off a 52-6 loss at Wisconsin. The Boilermakers have allowed 5.6 yards per carry, and they have created just two turnovers this season. Illinois does not exactly blow teams out – the Illini are coming off a bye week and should be able to avoid turnovers with quarterback Luke Altmyer. The defense will do the rest and break a four-game losing streak to the Boilermakers. 

Pick: Illinois wins 35-14 and COVERS the spread. 

Rick Osentoski/USA TODAY NETWORK

• No. 4 Penn State (-5.5) at USC (3:30 p.m., CBS) 

USC has two Big Ten losses after a stunner at Minnesota. Can the Trojans slow down Penn State's rushing attack? USC ranks 17th in the Big Ten in run defense, and Penn State will be content to hammer away with Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen against a run defense that has allowed 5.3 yards per carry in Big Ten play. Miller Moss should be able to have success against the Penn State secondary, and that cross-country thing is coming into play. Can the Nittany Lions pass the road test? A desperate USC team keeps it close, but Penn State survives.  

Pick: Penn State wins 28-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

• Cal at No. 22 Pitt (-3.5) (3:30 p.m., ESPN) 

Another game with a cross-country flight. Cal blew a 25-point lead against Miami in Week 6 and now it faces Pitt – which finally is ranked after a red-hot start. The Panthers are led by Eli Holstein, who ranks third in the ACC in TD passes with 15. Pitt is 5-0 ATS and averages 55.3 points per game at home. That is a tough emotional hangover for Cal to overcome. 

Pick: Pitt wins 34-28 and COVERS the spread. 

• Stanford at No. 11 Notre Dame (-23.5) (3:30 p.m., NBC) 

Stanford won its last visit to South Bend in 2022, but the Irish won this matchup 56-23 last season. The Cardinals have a good run defense that allows 3.3 yards per carry, but their quarterbacks have combined for nine TDs and seven interceptions. That will not play well against a Notre Dame defense that ranks sixth in the FBS in pass efficiency defense. Notre Dame creeps closer to the playoff picture with another impressive victory. 

Pick: Notre Dame wins 35-13 and FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

• Arizona at No. 14 BYU (-3.5) (4 p.m., Fox) 

The Cougars are home and will look to continue their unbeaten season against the Wildcats, an inconsistent team coming off a loss to Texas Tech. BYU ranks fourth in the Big 12 in pass defense, and they have to find a way to slow down SN Preseason All-American receiver Tetairoa McMillan. BYU is 6-2 S/U and 5-3 ATS at home since joining the Big 12 and they should be able to force a few turnovers. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff continues to play well, the Cougars keep pace in the Big 12 race. 

Pick: BYU wins 28-21 and COVERS the spread. 

• Mississippi State at No. 5 Georgia (-33) (4:15 p.m.. SEC Network) 

This is another huge spread for Georgia, which has failed to cover the last four weeks. Georgia needs to get that rushing attack moving against Mississippi State, which allows 212.8 yards per game on the ground. Mississippi State had a bye week to prepare, but Georgia will overwhelm Mississippi State on both sides. Georgia won the last meeting 45-19 in 2022. 

Pick: Georgia wins 42-10 and FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

• Florida at No. 8 Tennessee (-16) (7 p.m., ESPN) 

Who has more pressure in this game? Tennessee is coming off a stunning loss at Arkansas, and Josh Heupel is 1-2 against the Gators. Florida coach Billy Napier remains on a perpetual hot seat, but Florida is on a two-game winning streak and has shown improvement around Graham Mertz, who has a 86.4% completion percentage the last two weeks. The Vols' defense has not allowed 20 points in a game this season. Can Florida avoid the turnovers that could lead to a blowout? 

Pick: Tennessee wins 31-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

• No. 2 Ohio State (-4.5) at No. 3 Oregon (7:30 p.m., NBC) 

This line has already moved up a half-point and might inch closer to a TD before kickoff. That is high value in the Buckeyes – who have a complete team that features a tag-team running game with Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. Oregon will need to get Jordan James on track against an Ohio State run defense that allows just 73.6 yards per game, and Dillon Gabriel will need to avoid turnovers in the red zone. This is a huge game for both coaches, too. The Buckeyes are 10-7 S/U against top-10 teams under Ryan Day. The Ducks are 2-3 S/U in the same situation with Dan Lanning. 

Pick: Ohio State wins 30-22 and COVERS the spread. 

BENDER: Ohio State buries Iowa, sets up showdown with Oregon

• No. 9 Ole Miss (-3) at No. 13 LSU (7:30 p.m., ABC) 

Is Ole Miss good enough to go into Death Valley at night and win? The Tigers have lost just one home game since Brian Kelly took over in 2022 – and that was against Hendon Hooker-led Tennessee in 2022. Ole Miss receiver Tre Harris suffered a lower body injury last week against South Carolina. That is an injury worth monitoring. This line has ticked up a half-point, which is another sign there is belief in the Rebels. 

Pick: Ole Miss wins 35-31 and COVERS the spread. 

• No. 11 Iowa State (-3) at West Virginia (8 p.m., Fox) 

Is Iowa State the best team in the Big 12? Their gritty formula has worked so far, and the offense features three running backs that average 5.0 yards per carry. West Virginia quarterback Garrett Greene has led the Mountaineers to two straight victories. He has a 53.3% completion percentage with 80-plus rushing yards through those games. If that ticks up to 60% and Greene converts some third downs,, then the Mountaineers could pull off the upset here. The Cyclones have won four of the last five meetings. Still, this feels like a tricky spot. 

Pick: West Virginia wins 24-21 in an UPSET. 

• No. 18 Kansas State (-5.5) at Colorado (10:15 p.m., ESPN) 

Both teams had bye weeks to prepare for this game. Colorado has a plus-7 turnover ratio in its last three victories, and Shedeur Sanders will test the Wildcats' secondary. Kansas State will counter with a relentless rushing attack that features Avery Johnson, DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards – a Colorado transfer. It is a contrast-in-style game, and the Buffaloes will keep this close if they avoid turnovers. This is a chance for Travis Hunter to make another Heisman Trophy statement. Kansas State is 0-2 ATS on the road this season. 

Pick: Kansas State wins 31-27 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

• No. 17 Boise State (-21.5) at Hawaii (11 p.m., CBSSN) 

Ashton Jeanty averages 10.9 yards per carry with 16 TDs – incredible stats for the nation's leading running rusher. Boise State also leads the FBS with 50.6 points per game. The Broncos have won the last nine games in this series – but they haven't played since 2020. The Warriors have improved and covered as a double-digit underdog against UCLA in Week 2. This is a much different challenge – and Jeanty will continue his Heisman campaign. Can Hawaii sneak in the back-door cover? To do that, Bradyen Schager will have to avoid turners. 

Pick: Boise State wins 42-17 and COVERS the spread.