No. 7 USC takes on No. 16 UCLA in a prime-time Pac-12 matchup at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif., on Saturday.
Game time is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET, and it will be televised on Fox.
USC (9-1) remains in the mix for a College Football Playoff berth under first-year coach Lincoln Riley, and this is the first of what could be three straight games against ranked teams to close the regular season. Quarterback Caleb Williams leads the Pac-12 with 31 TD passes with just two interceptions.
UCLA (8-2) is coming off a heart-breaking 34-28 loss to Arizona. The Bruins remain in the mix for a potential Pac-12 championship berth, but they need a victory against the Trojans to stay there. UCLA coach Chip Kelly is 2-2 against USC, and he will rely on the combination of quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and running back Zach Charbonnet to attack the Trojans' defense.
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These are two high-powered offenses. USC averages 42.4 points and 499.4 yards per game. UCLA averages 39.5 points and 504.1 yards per game. It should be an entertaining game. Here is everything you need to know to be on the Trojans and Bruins.
USC vs. UCLA odds
- Spread: USC -1.5
- Over/under: 75
- Moneyline: USC -125, UCLA +105
This line has moved down a point from its opening; a show of faith in the Bruins. Each team has hit the over seven times this season, but they also both 1-1 on the over when it's more than 70 points. That's a high number. Maybe too high.
Three trends to know
— UCLA is 2-2 against the Trojans under Kelly, and that includes a 62-33 victory against USC at The Coliseum on Nov. 20, 2021. The winning team in the last four meetings averages 47.7 points per game.
— The Bruins also are 6-7 S/U as a home underdog Kelly, a great track record heading into this matchup. UCLA is 7-5-1 ATS in those games.
— It's a small sample, but the Trojans are 2-1 ATS and 2-1 S/U in games with single-digit spreads. USC covered as a single-digit underdog against Utah on Oct. 15, but the Trojans lost the game 43-42.
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Three things to watch
— DTR and Charbonnet. Thompson-Robinson and Charbonnet keyed the blowout victory last season. Thompson-Robinson passed for 349 yards and had six total TDs, and Charbonnet had 167 yards and a TD. It's a new USC defensive scheme under Alex Grinch, but the Bruins are not going to change much with a rushing attack that averages 240.1 yards per game. USC ranks eighth in the Pac-12 in rushing defense at 141.5 yards per game.
— Next man up. USC lost running back Travis Dye to a season-ending leg injury in the victory against Colorado on Nov. 11, and that means Austin Jones is the starting running back for USC, and the 5-10, 195-pound senior has been productive when given opportunities. He averages 6.4 yards per carry, but this will be his first game as a starter. Keep an eye on freshman Raleek Brown, who had seven carries for 52 yards against Colorado. He will get some chances, too.
— Unheralded defensive stars. Both teams have a difference-maker on the defensive side. USC defensive end Tuli Tuipulotu has 11.5 sacks and 17.5 tackles for loss. UCLA edge rusher Laiatu Latu has eight sacks and 9.5 tackles for loss. This is an offensive game, but a strip sack turnover play can switch that momentum in a hurry. Both are All-American candidates, and this is their spotlight game.
Stat that matters
Between Oklahoma and USC, Lincoln Riley is 22-2 in November/December in the regular season and conference championship games. Both losses, however, were with Williams at quarterback at Oklahoma last season. This is a prove-it stretch for both, and the rewards could be tremendous. Riley could lead a run to the College Football Playoff, and Williams could vault to the front of the Heisman Trophy race. The first prove-it game is against the cross-town rival.
USC vs. UCLA prediction
UCLA will have success with the Thompson-Robinson and Charbonnet combination. How will Williams respond? He should get more reps from star wide receiver Jordan Addison, and Mario Williams could be back for this game, too. Despite the injuries to skill-position players, Williams has been brilliant all season. Williams' splits have been consistent across the board, and he delivers in the second half of a tight game with a TD drive that gives USC enough cushion to hold off the Bruins. The total is a little lower, but this rivalry will not disappoint.
Final score: USC 35, UCLA 32
