In the nightcap of Monday's New Year's Day CFP doubleheader, the second-seeded Washington Huskies (+4) face the third-seeded Texas Longhorns in the Allstate Sugar Bowl.
The undefeated Huskies, led by Sporting News Coach of the Year Kalen DeBoer and Heisman runner-up Michael Penix Jr., look to take down the Longhorns for a second straight time during bowl season, having defeated Texas 27-20 in last season's Alamo Bowl. However, the motivation around this year's bowl matchup is much different, as is the potential outcome, with the second-seeded Huskies finding themselves as four-point underdogs.
Washington silenced all doubters in their Pac-12 Championship win over Oregon, notching a 34-31 victory over the Ducks despite closing as nearly double-digit underdogs on BetMGM. Penix Jr. and the offense had little trouble moving the ball against what had been a steady Ducks' defense, putting up 481 total yards of offense to punch their ticket to the CFP for the second time in school history.
MORE CFP BETTING: Michigan-Alabama preview
Texas, meanwhile, had one blip on their radar, a last-second loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry in Week 6, but it managed to win out and dominate in the Big 12 Championship to reach the CFP for the first time in school history. Texas' early-season non-conference win over Alabama gave them the resume edge over Florida State and Georgia, as Steve Sarkisian's crew gets a chance to end the Longhorns' 18-year title drought.
Can the Huskies defy the odds, or will the Longhorns get back to the sport's biggest stage? For those looking to bet on Washington-Texas' CFP matchup, we'll give you all the information you need before placing a wager, including the updated odds from BetMGM, and our predictions for the Sugar Bowl.
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Washington vs. Texas odds, spread, over/under
- Spread: Texas -4 (-110) | Washington +4 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 63.5 (-110) | UNDER 63.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Texas -185 | Washington +150
The betting market prices the Huskies as underdogs for the second straight contest. While the spread isn't nearly as high as it was ahead of the Pac-12 Title game, Washington is not expected to continue its dream season, with their moneyline odds of +150 giving it an implied win probability of 40 percent.
Plenty of points are expected between two high-powered offenses, making for an entertaining nightcap to New Year's Day. Despite a 27-20 Washington win in last season's Alamo Bowl, the final score was a bit misleading, as both squads put up 420-plus yards of total offense.
Should you bet Washington against the spread?
We're hesitant to bet on the Huskies against the spread due to concerns about their defense generating enough stops to slow down the Longhorns' potent offense. The Huskies rank 55th in defensive EPA per play, and although they defied the odds in their upset win over Oregon in the Pac-12 championship, the fact that Oregon closed as nearly 10-point favorites on a neutral field indicates that the Huskies might not be as strong as their undefeated record suggests.
That night, Washington was able to make life easier for Penix Jr. thanks to RB Dylan Johnson's effectiveness, as the junior RB rushed for 152 yards and two TDs on 28 carries. We don't expect that level of production against a Texas defense ranking eighth in EPA per rush, as there's a chance Washington will be routinely forced into obvious passing situations. Penix had plenty of clean pockets against Oregon, and with ample time to throw, he'll always find a way to beat you. That changes against an elite Longhorns' defensive front.
Texas' pass defense has shown some leaks, but it still ranks 17th in dropback EPA. We think we'll see a better-than-expected performance from Texas' coverage unit, especially if the Huskies' running game struggles.
On the other side of the ball, Texas' play-action heavy offense should still give the Huskies 4-2-5 defense fits. Although the Huskies' defensive backs are strong in coverage, with a month to prep, we trust Sarkisian's to exploit matchup advantages, looking to tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders and slot man Jordan Whittington to win their one-on-one battles.
The Huskies' struggles against the run (99th in EPA/rush) should help balance things out for Quinn Ewers and company, leading to Texas generating enough scoring drives to keep their National Championship hopes alive.
Our pick: Texas -4 (-110)
Final score prediction: Texas 38, Washington 33
Should you bet the Washington vs. Texas OVER?
We don't expect much defense in this one, and although the total of 63.5 already accounts for an offensive-centric contest, we see both teams scoring 30-plus with ease. Washington's ability to gain chunk plays through the air could lead to rather short scoring drives, an added plus for OVER backers.
Texas' multidimensional offense will be tough for the nation's 55th-most efficient defense to slow down, so it's fair to expect the Longhorns to score close to their season average of 36.15 points per game. While the total might be inflated by a couple of points given the perception around both offenses, we have no interest in betting the UNDER in this one.
Our pick: OVER 63.5 (-110)
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