The No. 20 Texas Longhorns (5-2) will head to Stillwater, Oklahoma Saturday afternoon to face the No. 11 Oklahoma State Cowboys in a pivotal matchup in the Big 12 (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC). The Longhorns are in third place in the conference, and the Cowboys are in fourth place. Both squads are trying to chase TCU and Kansas State, who are in the driver's seat to be in the Big 12 title game.
The Longhorns lead the all-time series over the Cowboys with a record of 26-10 with Texas winning two out of the past three matchups. However, Oklahoma State snapped Texas' two-game winning streak with a 32-24 win last season in Austin. Cowboys QB Spencer Sanders only completed 19-of-32 passes for 178 yards, two total touchdowns, and an interception, but it was enough to help Oklahoma State come back from a 14-point deficit. More important for OSU that day was that it forced Casey Thompson into two interceptions and returned one for a touchdown.
Oklahoma State suffered its first defeat of the season last week to TCU 43-40 in double overtime, blowing a 14-point lead heading into the fourth quarter. Oklahoma State's defense allowed 510 yards of total offense, including 244 rushing yards and three touchdowns. The Cowboys' defense will need to fix their issues quickly, as Texas RB Bijan Robinson had 173 total yards and three total touchdowns in last year's meeting.
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Meanwhile, the Longhorns won their third-straight game last week with a 24-21 win over Iowa State. Texas got another impressive performance from Robinson, who had 171 total yards on 32 touches. Freshman QB Quinn Ewers also played well, completing 17-of-26 passes for 172 yards and three touchdowns. Two of Ewers' TD passes went to Xavier Worthy, who led Texas with eight receptions for 72 yards. Worthy and Robinson will play major roles in what happens on Saturday afternoon in Stillwater.
Below, we'll break down what you need to know before you bet on this Week 8 matchup between these two ranked Big 12 squads.
2022 CFB ODDS: Heisman | CFP and National Champion
Texas vs. Oklahoma odds
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
- Spread: Texas -6.5
- Over/under: 61
- Moneyline: Texas -235; Oklahoma +192
Three trends to know
— Texas is 2-5 against the spread in its past seven games against Oklahoma and 2-5 straight up over that span.
— The Longhorns are 4-2 ATS when they are the favorite this season. Head coach Steve Sarkisian is an impressive 16-5 ATS when his team squad is the favorite between 3.5-10 points, according to BetQL's Bryan Zarpentine.
— Oklahoma State is a perfect 12-0 straight up in their past 12 home games.
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Three things to watch
— The health of Spencer Sanders: The veteran quarterback has been reportedly dealing with a shoulder injury over the past couple of weeks. However, the shoulder injury has not hindered Sanders in the passing department, as he threw 36 times for 245 yards last weekend against TCU. The previous week against Texas Tech, Sanders threw 45 times for 297 yards. Cowboys Head coach Mike Gundy was asked about Sanders' injury earlier this week and gave no additional info about the quarterback's status for Saturday. It seems likely that Sanders will play, but how effective will Sanders be against the Longhorns' defense that allows 228.7 passing yards per game?
— Bijan Robinson vs. Oklahoma State's defense: If you are Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian, the goal for Saturday is to feed Robinson the ball until the Cowboys prove that they can slow him down. The outstanding junior running back has been flat-out ridiculous this season, rushing for 780 yards and 10 touchdowns. Robinson failed to run for a TD for the first time all season last week against Iowa State, but he continued his streak with five-straight games with 100-plus rushing yards. Oklahoma State's defense got destroyed on the ground last week by TCU, giving up 244 rushing yards. Now, the Cowboys have to face one of the best RBs in the country who can put up 200 yards by himself.
— Can Oklahoma State's offense rise to the occasion?: The Cowboys' offense will be tested on Saturday against a Longhorns' defense that's giving up 18.3 points per game. This season, we've seen Texas hold Alabama to 20 points and shut out Oklahoma. The Cowboys wants to make this game a track meet where both teams score in the upper 30s. This season, Oklahoma State is averaging 45.3 points per game. If it wants to keep the game close with Texas, the running game has to get going like it was last week vs. TCU (141 yards). Granted, that was in a double-OT loss, but the Cowboys need the running game to help out Sanders and the passing game. If they can establish their ground attack, they have a shot in this ranked contest.
Texas vs. Oklahoma State prediction
Both teams are trying to keep pace in the Big 12, and it's also homecoming weekend for Oklahoma State, so the home crowd will be fired up. However, the Longhorns will come away with the victory thanks to their stout defense and running game. Sanders and Co. will have their moments, but it is tough seeing them scoring 36-plus points, which they did against Baylor and Texas Tech earlier this season.
Final score: Texas 35, Oklahoma State 27. Texas (-6.5) covers the spread, while the total goes OVER (61).
