Texas will make the College Football Playoff this season.
At least that's what Sporting News' preseason bowl projections, released Wednesday, are saying. We put the Longhorns in the College Football Playoff semifinal against Clemson with Alabama and Ohio State in the other CFP semifinal at the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl.
We have the Tigers and Crimson Tide projected in the championship game for a third straight season, but that does not get people's attention.
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Texas in the CFP does. Picking the Longhorns was a move guaranteed to crank up the meme machine with those three mockable words — "Texas is back!"
We'll double down now. It's not a bold prediction. It's a calculated decision. Here is our multi-layered defense for putting the Longhorns in the College Football Playoff.
Texas has the talent
The Longhorns' offense averaged 31.1 points per game in Tom Herman's second season and should be even better with quarterback Sam Ehlinger, a two-headed backfield in Keontay Graham and Daniel Young, and a talented group of receivers that was bolstered by Collin Johnson's decision to return to school. The defense replaces eight starters, but that same defense allowed 25.9 points per game. That mix of veterans up front and a talented-but-young back seven will be a little better. We're banking on that.
The schedule features that first big primetime game at home against LSU on Sept. 7. That is a good time to announce they are ready for the big stage.
Texas can win the Big 12
Oklahoma fans are going to mock the Texas prediction — and that is their right. Go ahead and tee off.
It's not a big gap in the rankings. Oklahoma is No. 4 and Texas is No. 6 in our post-spring preseason top 25.
The Sooners have won the last four Big 12 championships and beat the Longhorns in the Big 12 championship game last season. Oklahoma also replaces the Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 pick Kyler Murray along with four starters on its offensive line.
Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts can lead another Big 12 championship run, but is it that ridiculous to go with Ehlinger and the Longhorns here knowing they won the regular-season matchup last year?
Texas can win the Big 12, and if it does that it will have at least a 50 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff.
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Process of elimination
The Longhorns are one of the six teams capable of winning a national championship in 2019 with Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio State and Clemson. So let's set the Playoff field using those teams.
Alabama and Clemson is like playing Bingo with the extra free space. You've got two spots covered, giving the SEC and ACC their due. That leaves two teams.
Eliminate the Pac-12 and Group of 5 next. Maybe Washington or Oregon takes a spot, but can you make a stronger case for those teams than Texas right now?
Next comes the Big Ten champ. We have Ohio State in, but what if the Buckeyes flop under first-year coach Ryan Day? Ohio State hasn't won a national championship since Herman was offensive coordinator.
You can pick Michigan over Texas, too, but the Wolverines have not beaten Ohio State since Brady Hoke's first year as head coach. The Longhorns beat the Sooners in three of the last six regular-season meetings.
If you believe in Texas as the Big 12 champion, then it comes down to a head-to-head decision
SEC No. 2 or Big 12 champ?
Can the SEC get two teams in? Assuming Alabama gets one spot — a pretty safe bet considering the Tide have not missed the College Football Playoff yet — then it comes down to Georgia.
The Bulldogs have won the SEC East the last two seasons, but Georgia also still has to get through Notre Dame, Florida and a November road trip to Auburn. Alabama and Georgia both need one or loss or less to have a two-team SEC playoff, and that is going to be hard to do if they meet in Atlanta again.
We still think the scenario where the Big 12 champion gets in is easier to envision.
Don't think Texas can get the drop on Georgia? Go re-watch the Allstate Sugar Bowl.
Regardless of motivations, it happened.
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We'll be right if …
Texas beats LSU and Oklahoma and avoids a Maryland-like loss in Big 12 play. If the Longhorns can get to the Big 12 championship with a 11-1 record — and that will not be easy with road trips to West Virginia, TCU, Baylor and Iowa State — then they will be a win-and-in situation.
We'll be wrong if …
Texas can't play with expectations, and that leads to a loss against the Tigers on Sept. 7. Perhaps Oklahoma State knocks off the Longhorns two weeks later — like the Cowboys did last year. Texas could be out of the Playoff picture before the end of September.
That is why this is a risky pick, and those memes will return if that's the case.
The verdict
We can live with that gamble. Texas lost four games by a combined total of 11 points last season.
We've never said Texas is back. We do feel like Texas is close, and if the Longhorns beat LSU it's going to be hard to fight the urge to put the them in the Big 12 championship and College Football Playoff mix.
The championship game is still Alabama vs. Clemson — one that won't change across most major publications through talkin' season.
It's hard to come off those two free spaces, and we are not ready to do that.
But we know Texas is getting closer to breaking that up. Maybe it will be next year. We know what to say there, too.
"We'll be back!"
