Perhaps no September game will create more over-reaction than No. 11 Texas at No. 3 Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday.
Why? It's Alabama and Texas. It's the 7 p.m. ET prime-time Week 2 spotlight on ESPN. The Longhorns and Crimson Tide ranked No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, in revenue in 2022, a combined total that cleared more than $450 million. When that kind of money is in the program, there is a lot on the line when these teams meet.
Last year's 20-19 thriller between the teams was an example of just how fine the line is on the field. No. 5 Alabama beat No. 25 Texas in that one, but both teams are ranked higher this season, and there are College Football Playoff national championship aspirations on both sides.
What does that mean? Overreactions are going to be over the top, and we can predict how that will go either way. Here are Sunday's overreactions early depending on who wins the Alabama-Texas game on Saturday:
MORE: SN ranks 'em all from No. 1 (Georgia) to No. 133 (Arkansas State)
Alabama-Texas overreactions
If Texas beats Alabama ...
Here are three overreactions bound to happen if Texas beats Alabama on Saturday:
'Texas is back!'
Former Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger made the proclamation after the Longhorns beat No. 6 Georgia 28-21 in the Allstate Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1, 2019. What do you think Quinn Ewers will say on ESPN if the Longhorns beat Alabama?
The Longhorns are 29-20 with a 1-5 record against top-10 teams since; the lone victory a 41-34 shootout against No. 6 Oklahoma State on Oct. 31, 2020.
Last year's game was great, but this is the biggest stage for Texas since the 2019 matchup against No. 6 LSU. Joe Burrow led the Tigers to a 45-38 victory, and the Longhorns really haven't been "back" as a true CFP contender since.
This is a chance to change that. A win here, and Texas' CFP odds improve dramatically. They will get a larger bump than Florida State got after beating LSU 45-24 in Week 1.
Quinn Ewers for Heisman!
Alabama is 99-5 at home since 2009 – FBS-best winning percentage 95.2%. Those losses were to LSU (2011, 2019), Auburn (2010), Texas A&M (2012) and Ole Miss (2015). Three of those quarterbacks in those games – Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel and Joe Burrow – won the Heisman Trophy.
Bryant-Denny Stadium is the place where you can make the biggest Heisman statement.
Ewers let it fly early against the Crimson Tide last year. He was 9 of 12 for 134 yards before suffering a shoulder injury after a big hit from Dallas Turner in the first quarter. The most-popular phrase from last year's game is "Had Ewers finished the game …"
Hopefuly now we get to find out. Alabama has some key players dealing with injuries in the secondary in Malachi Moore and Jayden Key – who are both day-to-day. According to Pro Football Focus, Ewers was 0 of 6 on pass attempts of 20 yards or more in Week 1 against Rice. Can Ewers connect in this game?
It's a huge spotlight for the former five-star quarterback who reclassified and spent a season at Ohio State before transferring to Texas. Ewers is +2000 to win the Heisman now, according to BetMGM. Those odds will increase at least 50% with a victory here.
MORE: Week 2's picks against the spread for Top 25 games
Replace Saban with Sark!
Alabama has won 57 consecutive non-conference regular-season games, the longest such streak in the AP Poll era. While that streak is absurd, it also allowed the Crimson Tide the freedom of at least one loss in SEC play throughout most of the Saban era.
What if that were taken away? If Saban were to drop another game to a former assistant coach – Jimbo Fisher and Kirby Smart both got him in 2021 – then the retirement conversation will flare up.
Saban turns 72 in October – and despite a contract that runs through the end of the 2030 season, every time the Crimson Tide lose, the search for the successor comes up.
The same names are always on that list, but Kirby Smart isn't leaving Georgia and Dabo Swinney's stock at Clemson isn't at its highest point right now. Unless you want to talk about Lane Kiffin, then Sarkisian's name will be interesting – especially if he can win in front of all those fans at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
If Alabama beats Texas ...
Here are three overreactions bound to happen if Alabama beats Texas on Saturday:
'Texas is back!'
This one works both ways. Perhaps no school gets piled on more after losing then Texas because of that three-word phrase. Everybody does it in their creative way, including Sporting News.
"Texas is back" 🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩
— The Sporting News (@sportingnews) October 16, 2021
This is the sarcastic version Texas fans don't want to hear, which will be made worse depending on how many points the Longhorns lose by. If it's a one-score game, then that means Sarkisian will drop to 4-11 in that situation since taking over as head coach. If it's a blowout, then the memes will be quickly followed by variations of "Welcome to the SEC!"
Texas' playoff hopes will still be intact here, but a loss would put pressure on a perfect run through the Big 12 farewell tour.
Jalen Milroe will win Bama another natty!
Milroe had an encouraging opener against Middle Tennessee. He had three runs of 10 yards or more and finished 3 of 4 for 124 yards and three TDs on passes of 20 yards or more.
That is outstanding play-making ability against any defense, and a nod to what will be on display Saturday. This is not only about Saban not having a no-doubt first-round quarterback for the first time since Jake Coker. It's about new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees and the pressure that comes with being in the booth for a big-time Alabama football game.
If Milroe wins this game, then he is going to put in that same sentence with the other top quarterbacks in the game. Who is the top quarterback in the SEC on a national championship contender right now? Milroe can be the answer to the question sooner than you think.
You can bet Saban will have a smile on his face if Alabama wins this one convincingly.
WEEK 1 OVERREACTIONS: Pac-12 QBs, Ohio State's slow start, Travis Hunter
Start Arch Manning now!
This will get some tread, even if it's the most unrealistic potential overreaction on the board. Manning – a five-star recruit from Isidore Newman (New Orleans) High School and the nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning, did not take a snap in the opener against Rice. Maalik Murphy was QB2 and played two series in the fourth quarter when the game was in hand.
If Texas loses, those impatient fans and boosters are going to come out in full force. Manning ranks No. 4 on On3's NIL Valuation Top 100 behind Bronny James, Shedeur Sanders and Livy Dunne. When you have that kind of star power – even at the developmental stage – people are going to want to see you play.
Don't count on seeing Manning in this game – with the exception of sideline camera shots pointing out the future of Texas' quarterback room. Manning's arrival time isn't here yet, but a loss could put more pressure on Sarkisian with that timetable.
