TCU travels to No. 4 Oklahoma on Saturday for a prime-time Big 12 showdown.
Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, and the game will be televised on ABC.
TCU (3-2) is looking to play the role of spoiler under longtime coach Gary Patterson. The Horned Frogs have a talented backfield tandem in quarterback Max Duggan (1,003 passing yards, 9 TDs, 2 INTs) and running back Zachary Evans (586 yards, 5 TDs). TCU has a pair of one-score losses to SMU and Texas this season.
Oklahoma (6-0) remains unbeaten in the Big 12, and the big question is who Sooners coach Lincoln Riley starts at quarterback between Caleb Williams and Spencer Rattler. Williams led a thrilling comeback in a 52-45 victory against Texas last week, and the Sooners looked the part of a CFP contender.
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With that in mind, here is all you need to know about betting on the TCU-Oklahoma matchup:
TCU vs. Oklahoma odds
- Spread: Oklahoma -13.5
- Over/under: 65.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma -550, TCU +390
Three trends to know
— The Sooners have been favored in every home game under Riley. Oklahoma is 26-2 S/U and 13-15 ATS in those games.
— The Horned Frogs are 7-13 S/U as an away underdog since joining the Big 12 in 2012. TCU is 12-8 ATS in those games.
— TCU beat Oklahoma 17-10 on Sept. 3, 2005 in Norman. The Sooners have won 10 of 11 meetings since the Horned Frogs joined the Big 12.
Three things to watch
— Oklahoma's QBs. This is the biggest storyline. Reilly said the Sooners will not announce a starter, but it's a good bet Williams takes the first snap after his heroics against the Longhorns. Williams offers a dual-threat challenge for the Horned Frogs' defense and is more dangerous in the running game than Rattler. Still, it's a good bet both quarterbacks play against a TCU defense that is ranked No. 99 in total yards allowed per game. Williams' presence opens up rushing lanes for Kennedy Brooks, and that can be a problem.
— Zachary Evans' time to shine. Evans was a five-star recruit, and he is an emerging force for the Horned Frogs in the running game. He's had four straight games with at least 100 yards rushing, and he averages 7.9 yards per carry. It presents a similar challenge as Texas running back Bijan Robinson on the edge. This is a spotlight game for Evans, and he can take advantage of that. That should help Max Duggan, who has struggled in the passing game the last two years against the Sooners.
— Another one-score game? Oklahoma has mastered winning the one-score games this season, and TCU can keep this close into the second half. Opponents have outscored Oklahoma 59-55 in the first quarter. It will be interesting to see if that changes should Williams start at quarterback. If the Sooners get off to a fast start, then the Horned Frogs could be in trouble.
Stat that matters
Which OU quarterback makes the big plays? In last week's game against Texas, the Sooners had two plays of 20 yards or more when Rattler was at quarterback. With Williams, Oklahoma had six plays of 20 yards or more. Those six plays totaled 287 yards, and 47.8 yards per play. Brooks and Mims scored on those big plays. That could be the difference with Williams under center in the long term, and that makes the Sooners very dangerous.
TCU vs. Oklahoma prediction
Oklahoma found its mojo last week, but TCU can hang around with that rushing attack. The line is about right knowing the Horned Frogs have lost the last two games with Duggan by an average of 12 points per game. We just anticipate seeing a different kind of Oklahoma team, and perhaps that is why the line jumped up two points. Williams builds on his emerging star, and the big plays continue.
Final score: Oklahoma 44, TCU 31
