No. 8 TCU hosts No. 17 Kansas State Saturday night at Amon G. Carter Stadium (8:00 p.m. ET on FS1) in a matchup between the last two unbeaten teams in Big 12 conference play. TCU attempts to notch its fourth straight victory over a ranked team (No. 18 Oklahoma, No. 19 Kansas, No. 8 Oklahoma State), while Kansas State is looking for its fourth straight win over TCU.
TCU survived in Week 7, erasing an early 17-point deficit to take down then-No. 8 Oklahoma State 43-40 in a double-overtime thriller. TCU's defense stepped up when it mattered most in the second half, holding the Cowboys to just six points in the final 30 minutes of regulation. On offense, the Max Duggan to Quentin Johnston connection continued to be nearly unstoppable, as Johnston racked up 180 receiving yards and a touchdown on eight receptions.
Kansas State comes into Week 8 off its bye week but most recently notched a 10-9 road win over Iowa State in Week 6. The Wildcats rely heavily on their ground attack, rushing for an average of 244.5 yards per game (7th in FBS), headlined behind dynamic runners Deuce Vaughn (110.2 ypg) and QB Adrian Martinez (91.0 ypg). Conversely, the Wildcats throw for an average of only 158.8 yards per game (119th in FBS). Will the Wildcats continue to have success on the ground and grind out a road victory over the Horned Frogs in primetime?
MORE COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING: Week 8 ATS Picks
Here's everything to know about betting on the Week 8 matchup between the Horned Frogs and Wildcats:
TCU vs. Kansas State odds
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
- Spread: TCU -3.5
- Over/Under: 54
- Moneyline: TCU -170; Oklahoma State +143
After opening up as relatively short four-point favorites in some places, TCU's been slightly bet down to 3.5-point home chalk. Considering TCU's high-powered offense (45.8 ppg), the total is sitting at a fairly low 54 points, also being bet down from an opening number of 59.5.
Three trends to know
— Kansas State is an under bettors dream team, with nine of their past 13 games falling under the total.
— TCU's been a money maker under Sonny Dykes, entering Week 8 with a 4-1-1 ATS mark. They did fail to cover the closing line (+5) last week against Oklahoma State but are still overperforming relative to the betting markets.
— According to BetQL, "Chris Klieman is actually 7-0 ATS during his K-State tenure following a win of seven points or fewer over a conference rival. "
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Three things to watch
—TCU's containment of the rush game and Adrian Martinez: Kansas State's ground-based offense will be the best rushing attack the Horned Frogs have faced to date. Can TCU's defense limit Kansas State on early downs, putting Adrian Martinez in predictable passing down and distances? Back in his Nebraska days, Martinez was a turnover machine (30 INTS, 30 fumbles) and while he's fumbled three times this season, he's yet to throw an interception (first in FBS). Much of that has to do with Kansas State's favorable game scripts, but if Martinez has to shoulder a bigger load in the passing game, that might not be the best sign for the Wildcats' chances.
—Can Kansas State afford to play from behind?: Similar to the point above, Kansas State wants to control this game from the onset. While TCU showed last week they're capable of playing from behind, in this matchup especially, whoever sets the tone is in a great spot to remain unbeaten in Big 12 play with an inside track to making it to the conference championship game. A 14-0 first-half deficit spells trouble for the Wildcats, as relying on Martinez to make more plays with his arm than his leg isn't great for Kansas State's chances.
—Red zone efficiency: Yes, six is greater than three, and being able to limit your opponent to field goals in the red zone will be a big deciding factor in the game. So far this season TCU's offense has been able to turn more red zone trips into TDs compared to Kansas State. On 29 red zone trips, TCU's scored 21 TDs (13 rushing, eight passing) connecting on just four field goals. Kansas State's scored 10 rushing TDs to just two passing TDs while settling for nine made field goals on 24 red zone trips. While both offenses are explosive, whichever defense bends but doesn't break in the red zone is likely to secure the win.
TCU vs. Kansas State Prediction
The side and total in this game are correlated. A TCU cover more than likely results in this game going over the total as their offense continues to light up opposing defenses, forcing Kansas State to match scores. A Kansas State cover is likely a game in which their offense dominates the time of possession, winning at the line of scrimmage and staying in line with their season averages on the ground. Taking that into account, we still think TCU's offense continues to have success, resulting in a higher-scoring contest that ends in a cover for TCU.
Prediction: TCU 31, Kansas State 27. TCU (-3.5) covers the spread with the game going OVER the total (54).
