When Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence threw his second interception in the first half of Saturday's 45-10 victory against Louisville, the comparisons flared up again.
The Tigers, coming off 15-0 national championship season, are perceived as this year’s version of 2014 Florida State, which had a tough time defending its national championship during the first season of the College Football Playoff. Likewise, Lawrence has drawn comparisons to former FSU quarterback Jameis Winston with each interception. Lawrence now has eight interceptioins on the season, double his picks totals from last season in half as many games.
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We know how Florida State and Winston's season ended in 2014. The Seminoles saw their decade-best 29-win streak snapped in a 59-20 loss to Oregon in the first CFP semifinal at the Rose Bowl. The perception is Clemson will suffer the same faceplant in 2019, even if they run through the rest of their regular season schedule without a loss.
Are those comparisons to FSU accurate? Let’s do some myth-busting:
Are Lawrence's interceptions like Winston's?
Lawrence put up 3,280 yards, 30 touchdowns and four interceptions in a 2018 season in which he took the starting job from Kelly Bryant and led the Tigers to a 44-16 victory against Alabama in the national championship. That created over-the-top expectations for 2019, which Lawrence has not met compared to the other contenders such as Oklahoma's Jalen Hurts, Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa, LSU's Joe Burrow and Ohio State's Justin Fields.
Winton broke out in 2013 with a Heisman Trophy-winning season that included 4,057 yards, 40 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Those totals regressed to 3,907 yards, 25 touchdowns and 18 interceptions in 2014, even though FSU still finished the regular season with a perfect 13-0 record.
The perception is Lawrence is having a Winston-like season, but that's not exactly the case. To this point, Lawrence’s interceptions haven't hurt Clemson. On Saturday, the first interception was a miscommunication with Amari Rodgers. The second pick was on Lawrence. He finished 3 of 7 for 9 yards and two interceptions in the first quarter, and it did not matter.
That’s because Lawrence also threaded touchdown receptions to Joe Ngata and Justyn Ross that built a 17-3 halftime lead against the Cardinals. He hit Cornell Powell for a third score in the second half. The risky throws evened out, and Lawrence finished 20 of 29 passing for 233 yards and added 10 carries for 47 yards.
Lawrence has been picked apart more for his on-field performance than Winston, who was criticized more for his off-field behavior at Florida State. Lawrence might not be in the Heisman Trophy discussion, but he can win a game against those other contending quarterbacks.
A few more interceptions do not change that fact.
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Point differential
Through seven games, Clemson has outscored opponents 280-84, a 196-point differential that is almost identical to last season's mark of 294-94 (plus-200) through seven games.
So the notion the Tigers aren't beating ACC competition as much this season is also false, and there are two factors not being talked about as much as they should. Clemson can still play defense and run the football. The Tigers' defense is playing better this season despite heavy losses to the 2019 NFL Draft. That defense forced three turnovers Saturday and has allowed more than 14 points just once this season. The running game is on track with Travis Etienne (14 carries, 192 yards, touchdown).
FSU had plus-277 point differential through its first seven games in 2013, and that dropped to plus-114 after seven games in 2014. The Seminoles played three one-score games in that stretch, too. Clemson has played one game decided by one score or less, and it dropped from No. 1 to No. 2 after that 21-20 victory against North Carolina. The Tigers are being penalized because of the perception of their ACC competition. The reality is, not much has changed from 2018.
Florida State dealt with that too, but that wasn't the whole story in 2014.
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Biggest difference between Clemson, Florida State
That Florida State run came with off-field distractions around Winston for two seasons, and despite going unbeaten in the regular season, the Seminoles were ranked No. 3 behind one-loss Alabama and Oregon heading into the first Playoff. The committee was right in that decision, too. Clemson is operating with the same slim margin for error given the one-loss pileup that could occur in 2019. The Tigers could land in a similar spot in the CFP rankings at No. 3, even if they finish undefeated this season.
Still, the Tigers will stay in the top four as long as they don't lose a game. Chances are they won't either, knowing their remaining opponents entered Week 8 with a combined 18-11 record. Wake Forest — the only one-loss team left on the schedule — comes to Death Valley.
If Clemson does what it's supposed to do and wins out, then it will take a 28-game win streak into the College Football Playoff. If they tie Florida State's win streak at 29 in the national semifinals, then nobody can complain about the ACC competition.
The Tigers will be playing for a chance at their third national championship in four seasons, and that would end that comparison with those Seminoles once and for all.
