Just when you thought realignment talks were over …
Yahoo Sports' Ross Dellenger reports the ACC is discussing the addition of Cal, Stanford and SMU again. That potential move would push the ACC to 17 schools for football and 18 for basketball and beyond with Notre Dame.
Why have the realignment talks reheated? Dellenger reported the league is exploring new financial models that would make those moves possible for the Cardinal, Golden Bears and Mustangs.
The ACC continues to seriously discuss the additions of Stanford, Cal and SMU, sources tell @YahooSports.
— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) August 23, 2023
New financial models - based on SMU taking no share & Stanford/Cal taking a partial share - are circulating around league administrators, as ESPN reported earlier.
ESPN's Pete Thamel reported a small group of ACC presidents met Wednesday to discuss those financial options:
Sources: The potential additions of Cal, Stanford and SMU to the ACC are again under serious consideration by the ACC. A small group of ACC presidents met Wednesday morning to discuss financial models that would come with the additions.
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) August 23, 2023
Why would the ACC add Stanford, Cal and SMU?
Why is this back on the table? SMU is willing to take no media rights for a period of time, and Stanford and Cal would come at a partial share, according to The Athletic's Nicole Auerbach.
Financially, the way this would work: SMU would take no media rights revenue from the ACC for a period of time, and Stanford/Cal would come in at a partial share. Because ESPN would still be paying a full share for each additional member, there would be a pool of new, available $
— Nicole Auerbach (@NicoleAuerbach) August 23, 2023
Yahoo! reports Stanford and Cal are willing to take about a 30 percent share, meaning there would be a pool of $55M to be distributed via an incentive pool heavily weighted toward football success. That might be enough to incentivize Florida State and Clemson to stay in the ACC and not challenge the Grant of Rights deal. The conference's television agreement with ESPN runs until 2036 – and it would be in that television network's interest to not only see the conference survive but to have something in the late-night window to compete with the Big Ten – which now has USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington.
DECOURCY: FSU's whining will not land it in a new conference
Stanford and Cal keep power label
Stanford and Cal would give the ACC two private research universities with academic reputations that match the other private schools in the conference (Boston College, Duke, Miami, Syracuse, Wake Forest). Notre Dame also is a private institution.
The rest of the schools are public universities. The relationship between the two groups is worth watching.
Clemson and Florida State have been the most successful football programs in the conference, and it will be interesting to see how the Seminoles react to this move.
On the surface, this is more about that late-night TV window than concerns about cross-country travel for other sports. Where do Stanford and Cal fit in from a football standpoint? The Cardinal are 62-47 in the CFP era, which would rank between Miami (66-47) and Louisville (62-52) in the same stretch. Cal is 48-55, which is between Boston College (52-59) and Georgia Tech (49-60).
These are by no means exciting adds, but it does throw those two programs a life raft of sorts to keep their power conference labels. Considering the alternatives – which range from the Mountain West or American Athletic Conference to going independent or hoping the Big Ten reconsiders – it's the best option for those schools.
ACC moves into Texas with SMU
Who had SMU-to-the-ACC on the bingo card?
If this goes through, the Mustangs are getting a seat at the table for the first time since the "Pony Express" heyday in the Southwest Conference. The NCAA eventually give the football program the Death Penalty, and this is the end of the journey all the way back.
It has not been easy. The Mustangs have bounced around four different conferences since 1989 – and this is a huge win for the program. The ACC gets a footprint in the Lone Star State – albeit a much smaller one than the SEC got with Texas.
To that end, the Mustangs would be one of seven power conference programs in the state along with Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor and Houston. Throw in Rice, and you would have the final season of the Southwest Conference in 1995.
SMU is 52-57 since 2014 – which is behind Duke at 55-57 in the same stretch. Again, maybe not the best add, but one that helps ensure the survival of the conference in the short term should teams realign.
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Power conference model prevails (for now)
If the ACC expands, then the power conference model will remain intact. The Pac-12 would effectively be dead – with Washington State and Oregon State presumably taking a long look at the Mountain West Conference. The Cougars and Beavers would be the biggest losers in this round of realignment.
How would the other conferences look? Here is how many teams each conference would have:
| League | Teams |
| Big Ten | 18 |
| ACC | 17 |
| Big 12 | 16 |
| SEC | 16 |
Add Notre Dame, and you ironically have the 68-school model that is close to what UCLA coach Chip Kelly suggested (without conferences). The Power 4 would at least hold off a full-scale takeover by the SEC and Big Ten, and it likely would all but ensure that the 12-team College Football Playoff trims down to five automatic qualifiers with seven at-large bids. Those are side effects from this move.
Will the ACC expand beyond Cal, Stanford and SMU?
The ACC needs 12 of 15 schools – a vote that includes full-member Notre Dame – to vote yes to expand. The timing is interesting considering outgoing Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick appeared on "The Dan Patrick Show" on Wednesday and called the latest cycle of realignment a "complete disaster."
Jack Swarbrick tells us what would need to happen for Notre Dame to join a Conference in football
— Dan Patrick Show (@dpshow) August 23, 2023
-No Media Partner
-No Fair Path to the College Football Playoff pic.twitter.com/5s2g2K4L9O
The fact that the schools are back in discussions suggests adding those three schools could happen in the near future. That open 18th spot – similar to what the conference has now with 15 teams – could be open to the Irish if they choose to become a full-time member in football.
