The SEC has dominated the College Football Playoff era.
Will the conference claim a seventh national championship in 10 seasons? That would match the seven national titles SEC schools won during the Bowl Championship Series era.
That talk starts with Georgia – which has won back-to-back national championships under Kirby Smart. The Bulldogs are ranked No. 1 across the AP and Coaches preseason polls. Alabama and LSU are also in the top five. The Crimson Tide has a quarterback question longtime coach Nick Saban needs to answer, and Brian Kelly is building on a SEC West championship in his first season with the Tigers. Tennessee – which finished 11-2 in Josh Heupel's second season – also will be in the mix. All four contenders won their bowl games in 2022.
Who are the new coaches? Auburn hired Hugh Freeze – the former Ole Miss coach who revived his career at Liberty – and that will make the Tigers a more-interesting watch in 2023. Mississippi State's Zach Arnett replaced the late Mike Leach in last year's ReliaQuest Bowl.
Who has the edge in the SEC this season? Here is a closer look at the SEC, with predictions, defining games, Heisman contenders and more:
2023 SEC predicted order of finish
SEC East
- Georgia
- Tennessee
- South Carolina
- Kentucky
- Florida
- Missouri
- Vanderbilt
Georgia is set up for another fast start, which should help Carson Beck settle in as the starting quarterback. The Bulldogs have won 18 straight home games – a streak that dates back to Oct. 12, 2019 when they lost to South Carolina 20-17. The Gamecocks – a trendy sleeper pick under third-year coach Shane Beamer – visit Sanford Stadium on Sept. 16.
Tennessee plays at Florida on Sept. 16 and hosts South Carolina on Sept. 30. Those are tricky early-season tests that will reveal whether the hype on new quarterback Joe Milton is real. The Volunteers host Georgia on Nov. 18 at Neyland Stadium. Could this be another "Game of the Century?"
We gave South Carolina the edge over Kentucky. The teams have split the last four meetings. The Gamecocks won 24-14 last season, and Spencer Rattler has another year in the system. That said, the Wildcats could be a chaos team with new quarterback Devin Leary. The pressure is on Florida and second-year coach Billy Napier against a brutal schedule that starts with a Thursday night opener at Utah on Aug. 31. The Gators also have Georgia, LSU and Florida State in the final five weeks of the season. Missouri finished 6-6 and Vanderbilt 5-7 last season. The difference in bowl eligibility? The Tigers beat the Commodores 17-14. Don't be surprised if that's the case again.
SEC West
- Alabama
- LSU
- Texas A&M
- Ole Miss
- Arkansas
- Auburn
- Mississippi State
LSU is the defending SEC West champion, and the media poll vote was close with Alabama. The Crimson Tide, however, have not gone two years without a division title since 2010-11, and Alabama beat SEC West champion LSU in the BCS championship game that season. The rivalry between these two SEC powers is back – and the Nov. 4 matchup should decide who makes the SEC championship game.
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Will quarterback be the difference? Jayden Daniels passed for 2,913 yards, 17 TDs and three interceptions and was a difference-maker in the victory against the Crimson Tide. Alabama has a three-way battle among Jalen Milroe, Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner and Ty Simpson heading into fall camp, and that comes with a new offensive coordinator in Tommy Rees.
Texas A&M is the sleeper in the division, and Jimbo Fisher hired offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino in the offseason. That dynamic will be a story early in the season, but if sophomore Conner Weigman emerges as a star, then the Aggies will be in the mix. Texas A&M has split the last two meetings with Alabama and LSU, and the losses are by a combined total of seven points.
Lane Kiffin is back at Ole Miss. Quinshon Judkins led the SEC with 1,567 rushing yards in 2022. The Rebels have an intriguing quarterback battle among Jaxson Dart, Oklahoma State transfer Spencer Sanders and LSU transfer Walker Howard. Arkansas has arguably the best backfield in the conference with quarterback KJ Jefferson and running back Rahiem Sanders – who had 1,443 yards and seven TDs.
Auburn will be better – especially if Freeze finds the right quarterback early – and Mississippi State is moving to a different offensive style under Arnett. There will be growing pains in both places.
Top storyline: Can anybody stop Georgia?
Georgia has won 33 of its last 34 games since a 44-28 loss to Florida on Nov. 8, 2020. The Bulldogs are trying to become the first team to three-peat since Minnesota from 1934-36. That is not something Smart talks about often.
"No offense to the Minnesota 1935 team, but I don't know if it's gonna resonate with my audience," Smart said at SEC Media Days.
Georgia has dealt with some off-field issues since winning a second national championship. Three notable players were arrested this offseason, and that will be the first factor detractors point to if the Bulldogs fall short this season. Still, this team is loaded, and they've entered that rare air that Nebraska (1994-95), USC (2004-05) and Alabama (2009-10) filled when they went for three-peats.
You'll remember where you were if it doesn't happen.
Impact freshmen
Justice Haynes, RB, Alabama
Haynes – a four-star running back from Buford (Ga.) High School, put up 64 total yards and three TDs in the A-Day spring game, an impressive performance that could lead to more carries than expected as a freshman. He wears the same “22” that Mark Ingram rocked with the Crimson Tide, too.
Caleb Downs, S, Alabama
Downs is the best bet among this group to be an impact player right away. He has an NFL heritage that includes his father Gary, a former Giants running back, uncle Dre Bly and brother Josh, who was drafted by the Colts. The five-star freshman from Mill Creek (Hoschton, Ga.) should start, and that's saying something given the high standards Saban holds for defensive backs.
Nyckoles Harbor, WR, South Carolina
Harbor – a five-star athlete from Archbishop Caroll (Washington, D.C.) – is a 6-foot-5, 225-pound receiver who could end up at tight end if he fills out more. He's the highlight of an improved recruiting class by Beamer and will be part of the game plan. Will he make an instant connection with Rattler?
Nico Iamaleava, QB, Tennessee
The five-star quarterback from Warren (Downey, Calif.) High School will not start as a freshman, but the fascination will be high once he takes the first snap. Iamaleava is a 6-6, 206-pound prospect with high-level arm talent. How much will he be involved when it comes to meaningful snaps as the season progresses?
Impact transfers
Devin Leary, QB, Kentucky
Leary is among the most-interesting transfer QBs in the FBS. He finished with 35 TDs and five TDs in 2021 in NC State, which created high hopes for last season. Leary dealt with injuries and finished with 11 TDs and four INTs in six games. Can he recapture that 2021 form at Kentucky? If so, then he could be a draft riser in the mold of Will Levis.
Payton Thorne, QB, Auburn
Throne surprisingly entered the transfer portal in the spring, and he brings two years of starting experience at Michigan State. Thorne averaged 2,955 passing yards, 23 TDs and 11 INTs the last two seasons. Freeze would take that out of a first-year transition quarterback, and that's if Thorne should beat out Robby Ashford and Holden Griner for the starting job.
Dominic Lovett, WR, Georgia
Lovett was Missouri's leading receiver and an All-SEC performer last season after compiling 56 catches for 846 yards and three TDs. Now, he joins Mississippi State transfer Rara Thomas and Georgia veterans Ladd McConkey and Brock Bowers as the primary targets for Beck. A 1,000-yard season could be in the works.
Omar Speights, LB, LSU
Speights might be the most-underrated get from the portal. He is a 6-1, 237-pound linebacker who averaged 85 tackles and 6.5 tackles for loss the last two seasons at Oregon State, and he's playing behind a defensive front that includes Mekhi Wingo and Maason Smith. Speights will be a difference-maker along with Notre Dame transfer Ovie Oghoufo on the front seven.
Heisman hopefuls
Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Daniels had his second breakout season in 2011. The first was as a freshman quarterback at Arizona State in 2019. Daniels progressed with each week at LSU last season, and the signature victory against Alabama was a showcase for his ability as an all-around offensive threat. LSU will have huge stages against Florida State and Alabama in the regular season and perhaps a rematch with Georgia in the SEC championship game. Will Daniels join Joe Burrow as the second LSU transfer QB to win the Heisman in the last five years?
Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
It would take a strong lean into the "best player in the country" angle, but Bowers could make that argument given his production in Georgia's offense. Bowers had a 76.8% catch percentage with just three drops last season. A tight end hasn't been a finalist for the Heisman since Notre Dame's Ken MacAfee finished third in 1977.
Joe Milton, QB, Tennessee
How many quarterbacks can throw a football 90 yards or more? The legend around Milton is growing, and that can kick-start a Heisman Trophy campaign in a hurry. Milton's 251-yard, three-TD performance in the Orange Bowl primed the hype, and if he can be the same accurate QB in Heupel's offense as Hendon Hooker, the chances for a trip to New York will increase. Tennessee hasn't had a Heisman finalist since Peyton Manning in 1997.
Conner Weigman, QB, Texas A&M
Weigman is a wild card, and this will hinge on whether he becomes a true breakout performer with Petrino. It's certainly possible given a supporting cast that includes Reuben Owens and Evan Stewart. Weigman had eight TDs and no interceptions in four starts last season, but Fisher will need to turn him loose for the Aggies to have a chance in the SEC West.
Quinshon Judkins, RB, Ole Miss
Judkins wasn't stad-padding last year. He averaged 130.9 rushing yards per game in SEC play, and had a pair of 200-yard games late in the season against Texas A&M and Arkansas. He's a candidate to push the 2,000-yard mark, and the potential in the same backfield (even in designed packages) with Sanders could be fun.
MORE: SN's Heisman Trophy preview
SEC's biggest games of 2023
1. LSU at Alabama (Nov. 4)
This rivalry is back on, and Kelly has a loaded LSU roster that will come to Bryant-Denny Stadium. The Tigers are looking for back-to-back wins against the Crimson Tide for the first time since 2010-11. If the Crimson Tide wins here, then that likely means the Alabama-Georgia talk (SEC championship game, potential CFP rematch) will begin in earnest.
2. Georgia at Tennessee (Nov. 18)
Last year, the Vols ended a 15-game losing streak to Alabama in a 52-49 thriller at Neyland Stadium. How much will Knoxville be rocking if this a battle of unbeatens that decides who goes to Atlanta? Georgia has won the last six meetings by an average of 26.2 points per game.
3. Tennessee at Alabama (Oct. 21)
It's a revenge game for Saban – and the Crimson Tide are 5-1 against teams that beat them the previous season in the CFP era. Alabama will be battle-tested after the games against Texas and Texas A&M. Tennessee has Florida, South Carolina and Texas A&M before getting to Tuscaloosa. Will this be Milton vs. Buchner in a battle of Michigan and Notre Dame transfers?
4. Alabama at Texas A&M (Oct. 7)
The last two games have been decided by a total of seven points. It's early on the schedule, but it's also the Crimson Tide's third road game after trips to South Florida (yes, that's true) and Mississippi State. This also will be the maximum exposure on Fisher and Petrino together.
5. Texas A&M at LSU (Nov. 25)
We considered South Carolina-Georgia in this spot because of the Sept. 16 spot on the schedule, but the Bulldogs won that game 45-7 last season. The Aggies upset LSU 38-23 last season, and the home team has won the last five games in the series. Will the Tigers need this one to have a shot at the SEC championship game?
SEC stat that matters
Five SEC quarterbacks were selected in the 2023 NFL Draft. That list included first-round picks Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson, second-round pick Will Levis, third-round pick Hendon Hooker and fourth-round pick Stetson Bennett. It's one of the strongest SEC quarterback classes in recent memory. Mississippi State's Will Rogers is the returning leader in total offense (293 yards per game). Rattler is the only other returning 3,000-yard passer. While preseason rankings will pin Daniels or Jefferson as the best QBs, this is a wide-open race, and the starters at Georgia and Alabama are the X-factor. If Beck and whoever starts for the Crimson Tide get in that 3,000-yard mix, then the rest of the conference is in even more trouble.
SEC champion: Georgia
It's still the easiest pick. Georgia has built a monster through Smart's recruiting. Five of the first six games are at home, with the lone road trip a visit to Auburn. There is no reason why the Bulldogs should not be 10-0 when they go to Tennessee. A SEC championship matchup with Alabama or LSU also could be in the cards, but as long as Beck is solid – and he was in the spring game – then this could be the Bulldogs' scariest version yet. It won't be easy, but Georgia wins the conference and returns to the CFP for a third straight season as the overwhelming favorite. Will another SEC team be there to join them?
