Oklahoma vs. Texas: Betting trends, things to watch, prediction

Bill Bender

Oklahoma vs. Texas: Betting trends, things to watch, prediction image

No. 7 Oklahoma meets No. 19 Texas in a Red River Showdown that comes with both Big 12 and College Football Playoff implications on Saturday.

Second-year coaches Lincoln Riley and Tom Herman bring talented teams into that matchup. The Sooners (5-0, 2-0 Big 12) head to the Cotton Bowl in Dallas with a chance not only to take control of the conference race with Heisman Trophy candidate Kyler Murray, but also to beat the rival Longhorns (4-1, 2-0) for the third consecutive season. Texas and quarterback Sam Ehlinger can make their biggest statement yet under Herman with a victory here.

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Here's a look at the need-to-know information about the Sooners and Longhorns heading into Saturday's matchup.:

How to watch

Oklahoma and Texas kick off at noon ET on Saturday at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. The game will be televised nationally on FOX.

Betting odds

The Sooners has stuck at 7.5-point favorites, making this a tough call, but both teams are 2-3 against the spread this season.

All-time series

Texas leads the all-time series 61-46-5, but Oklahoma has a 6-2 advantage this decade. This is the first time both teams have been ranked since 2012. The Sooners won that matchup 63-21.

MORE: SN's Week 6 Power Rankings

Three trends to know

— The Sooners have won the last three of the last four meetings, and all three of those victories were by five points. That included last year’s 29-24 victory in the first head-to-head matchup between Riley and Herman.

— In 18 games as Texas’ head coach, Herman is 3-5 in games that are decided by seven points or fewer. The good news? The Longhorns have won the last two this season against Tulsa and Kansas State.

— In the 12 matchups where both teams are ranked since 2000, the lower ranked team has won one matchup. That happened in 2008 when No. 5 Texas upset No. 1 Oklahoma 45-35.

Three things to watch

The turnover battle. Both teams are plus-two in turnover margin this season, and the Longhorns have an improved secondary that has come up with six interceptions through five games. Murray and Ehlinger each have thrown just two interceptions this season.

The quarterback battle. Murray has been flat-out ridiculous in two Big 12 games against Iowa State and Baylor. He has 780 passing yards, 122 rushing yards and 10 total touchdowns in those two games. Ehlinger has been efficient with 462 passing yards and three touchdowns in victories against TCU and Kansas State, but he’ll be counted on for more against the Longhorns.

The tempo battle. Both teams allow 4.8 yards per play. The Sooners have the advantage in yards per play (8.8 to Texas' 5.4), but the Longhorns have run more plays than the Sooners (375-295). That’s a product of Oklahoma’s game against Army earlier this season, in which the Black Knights ran 87 plays to Oklahoma's 40. The team that keeps it closest to that mark of 4.8 yards per play will be in decent shape.

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Stat that matters

Texas has outscored opponents 38-34 in the first quarter this season. Oklahoma, meanwhile, has a decided 80-20 advantage in the first quarter. Emotions are always high in the first quarter of this game, but the Longhorns have to get off to a good start. The Sooners led 10-0 after one quarter last season and held on for the victory from there.

Prediction

Big plays. We expect big plays on both sides, and it will be interesting to see how Texas’ secondary fares against big-play receivers Marquise Brown (544 yards, five touchdowns) and CeeDee Lamb (348 yards, five touchdowns). Same goes for Oklahoma’s secondary against Lil’Jordan Humphrey (402, three touchdowns) and Collin Johnson (350 yards, three touchdowns). The second half will be an outstanding back-and-forth affair, but Murray will make one more play in the clutch.

Final score

Oklahoma 34, Texas 27

Bill Bender

Bill Bender Photo

Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.