No. 3 Michigan takes on No. 2 Ohio State on Saturday in The Game at Ohio Stadium in Columbus.
Game time is scheduled for 12 p.m. ET, and it will be televised on Fox. An appearance in the Big Ten championship game is on the line.
Michigan (11-0) is looking for back-to-back wins against the Buckeyes for the first time since 1999-2000. Jim Harbaugh has put the Wolverines in position to reach the Big Ten championship for the second straight season, but the health of running back Blake Corum, who suffered a knee bruise in Week 12 against Illinois, is a huge talking point heading into the matchup. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy needs to be more effective to give Michigan a chance to break a drought at The Shoe that extends back to 2000.
Ohio State (11-0) is looking to avenge last year's 42-27 loss to the Wolverines. Ryan Day has not lost a Big Ten game at home. The Buckeyes have a high-powered offense with quarterback C.J. Stroud and wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., and an improved defense under new coordinator Jim Knowles. Ohio State has won every game this season by double digits. The Buckeyes have some key injuries to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson, among others.
Ohio State ranks second in the FBS in scoring offense (46.5) and ninth in scoring defense (16.6). Michigan ranks second in scoring defense (11.7) and ninth in scoring offense (39.5). Which styles wins out in a Big Ten clash for the ages? Here is everything to know about betting on the Buckeyes and Wolverines:
Michigan vs. Ohio State odds
- Spread: Ohio State -7.5
- Over/under: 57
- Moneyline: Ohio State -300, Michigan +240 (BetMGM)
Latest BetMGM odds
The line varies across sportsbooks by up to a point in the Buckeyes' favor, but this line has not moved much. Ohio State has hit the over in seven of eight Big Ten games. The lone over that hit was the windy 28-7 victory against Northwestern on Nov. 5. Michigan has hit the under in six of its eight Big Ten games. The over hit in the 41-17 victory against Penn State on Oct. 15 and the 52-17 victory against Rutgers on Nov. 5.
Three trends to know
— The Buckeyes have won nine straight home meetings against the Wolverines, a streak that extends back to the 2000 season. Ohio State won those games by an average of 14.9 points.
— Ohio State has won 29 straight Big Ten home games, and it has won those games by an average margin of 30.2 points. The Buckeyes are 3-1 ATS in Big Ten home games this season under Day. Since Day took over, only one Big Ten home games has been decided by one score. Ohio State beat No. 9 Indiana 42-35 in 2020. The Buckeyes beat No. 20 Penn State 33-24 last season, which is the only other game decided by 10 points or less.
— Since Harbaugh took over in 2015, the Wolverines are 3-12 S/U and 6-9 ATS as an underdog and 1-6 S/U and 3-4 ATS as a road underdog. Michigan is 0-2 at Ohio Stadium under Harbaugh. The 30-27 double-overtime loss in 2016 was close. The 62-39 blowout loss in 2018 was not.
Three things to watch
— Will Michigan run wild again? Big Ten Network analyst Jake Butt, a former Michigan tight end, recognizes the contrast in styles in this matchup. "Both of them are built to beat each other," he said. "The one who can bring the other one into their world is the likely winner." For Michigan that means trying to replicate last year’s game. The Wolverines rushed for 297 yards on 7.2 yards per carry against a beleaguered Ohio State run defense. Corum (1,457 yards, 18 TDs) and Donovan Edwards (471 yards, four TDs) are dealing with injuries, and Harbaugh did not divulge much on their status. C.J. Stokes (268 yards, TD) is the third back in the rotation. Ohio State has revamped that run defense. The Buckeyes allow 107.9 rushing yards per game, and linebackers Tommy Eichenberg and Steele Chambers have combined for 18 tackles for loss. If Michigan cannot control the clock, then they will be in trouble.
— Ohio State’s running game. The Buckeyes average the same 5.5 yards per rushing attempt as the Wolverines. Williams (783 yards, 13 TDs) and Henderson (571 yards, six TDs) are dealing with injuries and their status is uncertain, but Dallan Hayden (503 yards, five TDs) is an explosive option coming off back-to-back 100-yard games against Indiana and Maryland. He could be the hidden hero in this game against a Michigan defense that allowed a season-high 148 rushing yards against Illinois in Week 12.
— Pressure on Stroud. Butt also spelled out the challenge for Michigan's defense. "How do you stop an explosive quarterback and receivers isn't by going toe to toe with Marvin Harrison Jr. No one is going to do that. No one is going to fight toe to toe with Muhammad Ali in his prime, right? It's to actually go to the foundation. It's to rush the quarterback. It's to hit C.J. Stroud early and often," Butt said.
Why is that? Ohio State has two receivers in Harrison (1,037 yards, 11 TDs) and Emeka Egbuka (914 yards, eight TDs) who average 16.0 yards per catch. Cade Stover (386 yards, five TDs) also is a key piece in the offense. If Michigan cannot get to Stroud, then it's going to be a long afternoon. Edge rusher Mike Morris (7.5) should return for this game, and he will be counted on to deliver that pressure.
Stat that matters
Drew Henson was the last Michigan quarterback to win at The Shoe. McCarthy, a five-star first-year starter, has that kind of confidence. He has struggled with accuracy the past three weeks, with a 50 percent completion percentage in those games. McCarthy does have 14 TDs and two interceptions for the season, but he needs tight end Luke Schoonmaker (315 yards, two TDs) back. Receiver Ronnie Bell (641 yards, two TDs) needs to make an impact, especially on third down. McCarthy does not need to match Stroud statistically, but the young quarterback cannot make the huge mistake on the road.
Michigan vs. Ohio State prediction
Who wins the identity battle? That is the question. Michigan handled that challenge last year. Ohio State had a three-point lead in the second quarter, but that was it. Michigan controlled the tempo. What happens if the Buckeyes take a two-score lead in the first half? That would be trouble on the road.
The back-and-forth should be good, and the forecast calls for the possibility of rain. Still, this Ohio State team has been building for this moment since last year’s loss. Stroud had 394 yards and two TDs in last year's game, and that was with heavy pressure. Look for Hayden to be a spark in the running game. Michigan will keep it close at half, and Corum will score a pair of short-yardage TDs.
But a quick-strike TD and turnover in the fourth quarter will give the Buckeyes the distance needed to hold off their rivals.
Final score: Ohio State 36, Michigan 26
