So much for that Ohio State-Michigan rematch in the College Football Playoff championship game.
No. 3 TCU upset No. 2 Michigan 51-45 in the CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Saturday.
No. 1 Georgia beat No. 4 Ohio State 42-41 at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. This isn't the World Cup, so there is no bronze-medal game for the Big Ten powerhouses.
MORE: Mistakes, not missed calls, cost Michigan a shot at CFP title
It was not a great look for the Big Ten – which now is 3-8 in the College Football Playoff. Ohio State had two of those three victories in the first year of the CFP in 2014, but they are 1-5 since. Michigan lost in the CFP semifinals for the second straight season.
Which school feels worse right now? A series questions can help find the answer.
Ohio State or Michigan: Which CFP loss was worse?
Michigan. The Wolverines were a 7.5-point favorite and rolled into the Fiesta Bowl oozing with confidence from their late-season victories at Ohio State and Purdue. They were pushed around by the Horned Frogs on both sides in a surprise from the start. TCU rushed for 263 yards and confused Michigan with a 3-3-5 defense. TCU won the ole' Big 12 way, and it has to be soul-crushing knowing this was the Wolverines' best chance to play for a national championship since 1997.
Ohio State is closer than you think here. Yes, the Buckeyes engaged in a back-and-forth with Georgia that came with all the boxing analogies. This isn't a split decision, though. The Bulldogs won. The truth is this was a loaded team flush with NFL talent that was outscored 21-3 in the fourth quarter against Michigan and 18-3 in the fourth quarter against Georgia.
Both teams had injuries. Michigan did not have star running back Blake Corum and tight end Luke Schoonover was injured during the game. Ohio State did not have running back TreVeyon Henderson and receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. and tight end Cade Stover left during the game.
Which coach deserves more CFP heat?
Michigan. Harbaugh's goal-line “Philly Special” call set the tone for the rest of the game. That was a missed opportunity to send a message to the Horned Frogs with a TD run right up the middle.
"I take full responsibility for it not working and should've had something different called," Harbaugh said afterward.
Jim Harbaugh reflected on Michigan's failed fourth down call of Philly Special on the first drive.
— Brad Galli (@BradGalli) January 1, 2023
“I take full responsibility for it not working and should have had something different called,” he said postgame. pic.twitter.com/otaqsBq97F
Then, the Wolverines tried a quick handoff at the goal line in the second quarter that resulted in a second fumble. The red-zone offense – especially in the first half – was not good enough.
MORE: Four crazy stats from wild TCU-Michigan Fiesta Bowl
Harbaugh fell to 2-6 against top-five teams and 1-6 in bowl games in the process. He owned it afterward, but that trend continues to follow the Wolverines in the postseason.
Which coach faces more heat in 2023?
Ohio State. Day isn't off the hook here. The Buckeyes could have gotten Noah Ruggles closer than 50 yards. Day's play-calling in the final seconds was questioned after he went conservative after calling an all-out aggressive game all night. The end result was Ruggles missing a 50-yard field goal at the end of regulation.
Ohio State showed fight under Day, but let's save the happy-to-be-there, moral victory routine. If the Buckeyes are in the same weight class as Alabama and Georgia, then that requires winning the top-five showdowns. Day is 2-5 in that situation. Urban Meyer – his predecessor – was 6-2.
Which school had the better bright spot?
Ohio State. What else can you say about Stroud? He silenced the doubters with a brilliant performance against Georgia. He finished 23 of 34 passing for 348 yards and four TDs. He added 32 rushing yards, and his 27-yard scramble nearly set up the game-winner. Stroud re-affirmed his status as a first-round 2023 NFL Draft if that is the route he chooses.
MORE: Georgia survives epic Peach Bowl despite Stroud heroics
Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy also led an impressive second-half comeback. He finished 20 of 34 for 343 passing yards and added 52 yards with three total TDs, but he also had two costly pick-sixes. Those mistakes give the edge to Stroud.
Which school had the bigger sore spot?
Ohio State. The Buckeyes' defense allowed more than 40 points and 500 yards for the second straight game. Ohio State allowed 530 yards in the regular-season finale against Michigan and 533 yards to the Bulldogs – back-to-back backbreakers against first-year defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, who was brought on to cure the ills of last year's losses against Oregon and Michigan. The Buckeyes allowed an average of 492.5 yards in those two losses. Michigan's defense was torched too, but that will be the question mark for Ohio State the next time they get in a top-five showdown.
Who will be ranked higher in 2023?
Michigan. This is a tough call. The Wolverines return McCarthy, and that probably makes the difference. The Wolverines also have another soft non-conference schedule (East Carolina, UNLV, Bowling Green) and a few Big Ten road tests (Nebraska, Penn State, Michigan State), but the path to a potential Big Ten three-peat is open.
That could change if Stroud returns to school. Ohio State runs the home-and-home with Notre Dame back next season, and the toughest road game on the schedule is Wisconsin and former Ohio State coach Luke Fickell. The Buckeyes return the same talented roster, and Harrison and J.J. Tuimoloau are future first-round picks who will lead that roster.
Who needs to win The Game more in 2023?
Tie. We’re a long way from Nov. 25 at Michigan Stadium, but there is a decent chance that will be the fourth consecutive top-10 showdown between the teams.
For Ohio State, the pressure will be palpable. Day is 1-2 against the Wolverines, and the Buckeyes have not lost three in a row in The Game since a brutal stretch from 1995-97. Taking Georgia to the limit took some heat off Day, but there are absolutely no moral victories when it comes to Michigan.
Harbaugh is 2-5 against the Buckeyes, but the Fiesta Bowl loss was a reminder of that track record in big games. The Wolverines have taken two-year control of the rivalry, but it would not be a surprise if Ohio State is favored in that game if both teams are in the Big Ten championship hunt.
Which teams win it? Probably the one that can put this year's playoff loss in the past first.
